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FxPro:美元强势

2013-7-2 14:37:01  文章来源:亚洲外汇网  作者:FxPro
核心提示:FxPro:美元强势

  01/07/13@ 07:22 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

  http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130701/meiyuan-qiangshi

  Data/Event Risks

  数据/事件风险

  USD:Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50 in May, only the second sub-50 reading since 2009. The USD has shown increased positive correlation to data surprises, so reading above 50.5 market expectation will likely allow dollar to strengthen.

  EUR:Although the market expects no change in the final PMI numbers, any downward revisions could lead to a softening of the euro ahead of the ECB meeting this week.

  AUD: The market expects the RBA’s cash rate to remain at the already record-low 2.75% set earlier in May (announcement Tuesday). Nonetheless, weaker economic growth in 2013 (2.5% GDP growth Q1) in combination with sliding commodity prices leaves the door open for further rate cuts and more Aussie weakness.

  美元:五月份制造业PMI跌到了50以下,是2009年以来第二次跌到50以下。美元与数据之间的相关性变得越来越正面,因此如果PMI能够超出市场预期到50.5以上将会让美元走强。

  欧元:尽管市场不希望最终PMI数据不改变,但如果这周欧洲央行会议之前数字被修改得更低的话将会软化欧元。

  澳元:市场期待澳洲联储银行的现金利率能够维持在五月初(周二发布的)已经是纪录低点的2.75%。但是,2013年经济增长疲软(第一季度GDP增长2.5%)加上商品价格下滑让进一步降低利率有了空间,而且让澳元有可能出现更多疲软状态。

  Idea of the Day

  今日看法

  We move into the second half of the year. It’s difficult to find traders or investors who are not taking a more bullish view of the dollar. This is largely predicated on the divergence we are seeing on the likely path of monetary policy, with thoughts turning to how and when the US will take its foot off the monetary accelerator. At the same time, Japan is adding to quantitative easing, with further stimulus measures still possible for both the UK and Eurozone and the Australian central bank. In the bigger scheme of things, the dollar is just under 5% higher (looking at the dollar index) compared to the average seen since QE started with a vengeance in the early part of 2009. And compared to some of the big trends we’ve seen in the pre-QE era (both upwards and downwards), the recent moves have still been relatively modest. Right now, it’s difficult to argue against a further dollar for the second half of the year, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride and near-term, there’s a strong case to suggest that the dollar has rushed ahead of itself in expecting near-term tapering action from the Fed.

  我们进入了下半年。交易者或投资者都在看好美元。我们主要是从货币政策可能走向的分歧中推断出来的,此外我们还考虑到了美国何时以及如何从货币加速中脱身出来。同时,日本正在增加量化宽松计划。而英国和欧元区以及澳大利亚央行还有可能采取更多刺激措施。从大局来看,相比2009年初量化宽松计划复仇式的开始时候的均值,美元仅仅高出不超过5%(美元指数)。而相比量化宽松计划开始之前的一些大趋势(上升和下降),最近发生的变化还是相对温和的。目前,要在下半年唱衰美元还是比较困难的,但是近期内可能还是会有磕磕碰碰。我们还是强烈的感受到,近期内美联储开始紧缩行动之前,美元有一点超前了。

  Latest FX News

  最新外汇新闻

  JPY:The Tankan survey is a key barometer of both the health and the outlook for the Japanese economy. The latest survey showed further improvement, with the measure of confidence in the large manufacturing sector at the highest level for more than 5 years. This gave a boost to stocks which weighed modestly on the yen. USDJPY is currently above the 50-day moving average which sits at 99.19.

  EUR: Seeing strong month end pressure, with sellers emerging after the US data on Friday, taking EURUSD from above 1.31 to just below the 1.30 level in late European trade.

  USD:Data on Friday was relatively neutral for the dollar, with Michigan Confidence revised higher (to 84.1). Nevertheless, the dollar did rally into month end, allowing a near 1-month high on the dollar index.

  AUD: Carving out new lows for the year into the end of last week, with another new low for the year on AUDUSD at 0.9110. A modest recovery has been seen during the Asia session, reaching just above the 0.92 level.

  日元:Tankan 调查是日本经济的健康性和前景的晴雨表。上次调查显示日本经济有进一步的改善,数据显示对于大规模制造业的信心正处在五年多以来的最高点。这种情况提振了对日元有着重大影响的股票。而美元日元目前正处在50天移动均线之上,为99.19。

  欧元:月末压力很大,周五美国的数据出来之后出现了卖家,在欧洲交易期即将收盘时将欧元美元从1.31压低到了1.30之下。

  美元:周五的数据对于美元相对中性,密歇根信心数据被修改高了(到了84.1)。但是,美元还是在月末反弹了,导致美元指数达到一个月以来的高点。

  澳元:上周末创造了年度的新低点,而澳元美元也出现了年度低点0.9110。亚洲交易期内出现了温和的恢复,达到了0.92之上。

  FX Alerts

  EUR LIFTED BY PMI REVISIONS

  PMI 修改后欧元上升

  01/07/13@ 08:04 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

  http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130701/pmi-xiugai-zhihou-ouyuan-shenggao

  EURUSD up around 25 pips to 1.3050 as final PMI data for eurozone countries revised higher, Spain manuf back to 50, Italy at highest for nearly 2 yrs at 49.1. This picture was not repeated in the core, France revised 0.1 higher, Germany 0.1 lower. So a modest boost ahead of the ECB meeting this week, but peripheral countries desperately need a sustained recovery to put their debt onto a more stable outlook and at present, it's still difficult to see where that is going to come from.

  欧元美元上升了25个pip到了1.3050,这是因为欧元区国家的最终PMI数据被修改高了。西班牙的制造业回到了50,意大利达到了两年以来的高点49.1。而核心国家则没有发生这样的局面,法国只升高了0.1,德国下降了0.1。因此只能算是欧洲央行这周会议之前的一个小小的爆发,不过外围国家急切需要一种可持续的恢复好让这些国家的债务能够拥有稳定的前景以及现实。而这种恢复会从哪里出现现在还很难得知。

  FX Alerts

  CABLE AT DAY'S HIGHS ON PMI

  英镑美元由于PMI数据处于当日高点

  01/07/13@ 08:37 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

  http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130701/yingbang-meiyuan-youyu-pmi-dadao-dangri-gaodian

  GBPUSD back above 1.52 level (up 50 pips to 1.5230) on firmer than expected Manuf PMI, up 52.5 (from 51.3), highest for 2 years.

  英镑美元回到了1.52之上(从1.5230上升了50个pip),这是由于制造业PMI数据比预期要稳定,(从51.3)上升到了52.5,是两年以来的高点。

  FX Alerts

  ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX

  ISM 制造业指数

  01/07/13@ 14:18 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

  http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130701/ism-zhizaoye-zhishu

  US ISM Manufacturing (Jun) M/M 50.9 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 49.0)

  US Construction Spending (Jun) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.1%)

  美国的ISM 制造业指数(六月)环比50.9,而预期是50.5(此前为49.0)。

  美国的营建支出(六月)环比0.5%,而预期是0.6%(此前为0.4%,修改了0.1%)。

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