18/07/13@ 07:38 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130718/meilianchu-shifang-wending-xinxi

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　USD: The Fed Chairman appears before the Senate today. The prepared statement is usually identical to yesterday’s. Bernanke was successful in keeping market volatility limited during the Q&A and will do his best to deliver the same tone and message today.

　　GBP:Retail sales data is seen rising 0.2% on the headline measure, after a 2.1% increase in May. The Bank of England has been pretty clear in its recent statement and yesterday’s minutes, so data likely to have a limited impact vs. before on the currency if away from expectations.

　　美元：美联储主席今天出席了参议院的会议。他准备的声明和昨天的差不多。在问答环节伯南克成功的将市场波动限制在了有限的范围，而今天他会尽自己的努力传递相同的调子和信息。

　　英镑：零售数据整体上升了0.2%，而五月是上涨了2.1%。英格兰银行在上次的声明和昨天的会议上的态度非常清晰，因此，如果与预期相去太远的话，相比过去这些数据对货币的影响可能会比较有限。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　Compared to last week’s dollar volatility, the reaction to the Fed Chairman’s statement yesterday was fairly muted in comparison, the net result being a modestly firmer dollar, but only 0.4% or so. This compares to the 1.5% decline seen in the wake of Bernanke’s comments (and also FOMC minutes) from last week. In summary, the comments underlined the conditionality of the Fed reducing the amount of monthly bond purchases (tapering), keeping the focus on the development of data and in particular the labour market. The dollar moved appeared to be more about short covering, rather than a reflection of a hawkish interpretation. As such, expect the dollar to be more sensitive to data, but for the dollar outlook is looking a little less bullish than before. Note that he appears before the Senate today, but he will do his best to keep the message consistent with that delivered yesterday.

　　相比上周美元出现的波动，昨天美联储主席声明的反响相当的沉闷，直接的结果就是美元温和走高，但是只有0.4%这么多。这与上周伯南克的言论（以及联邦公开市场委员会会议内容）造成的1.5%的下跌形成了对比。总之，这些言论强调了美联储减少月度债券购买（紧缩）的可能性，将焦点维持在数据的进展上，特别是劳动市场。美元方面的变动看起来更多的是空头回补，而不是对强硬言论的回应。因此，美元有可能对数据更加的敏感，但是美元的前景和以前相比没那么让人看好了。要注意伯南克今天出席了参议院的会议，但是他会尽自己的努力将自己的言论与昨天的发言保持一致。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　AUD:Proving to be a little more vulnerable than most to the stronger dollar environment. AUDUSD has displayed a propensity for modest corrections and new lows, so crucial to watch for move back to 0.90 to see if this pattern is being repeated.

　　JPY: The yen remains fixated on politics and the development of this weekend’s election results. There has been a slightly weaker underlying tone on the expectation that a strong majority will give Abe the mandate to push ahead on the difficult area of structural reform, allowing USDJPY to nudge above the 100 level.

　　GBP:The big surprise yesterday was the fact that all nine members of the MPC voted for steady rates at the July meeting, which initially added 1 cent to GBPUSD. Around half of this was eroded by the better dollar tone after Bernanke’s comments.

　　澳元：在美元走强的环境下澳元看起来更加脆弱。澳元美元表现出了一种小幅修正并趋近新低的趋势，因此观察澳元美元是否能回到0.90以检查这种模式重复下去将会非常关键。

　　日元：日元仍然在注视着政治趋势以及这周周末选举的结果。大家不是那么期待大多数人会让安倍继续推进到结构改革的深水区域，而这样会让美元日元小幅上涨到100之上。

　　英镑：昨天让人大吃一惊的就是七月会议上货币政策委员会（MPC）所有九个成员都投票赞成了稳定利率，这让英镑美元上涨了一美分，不过其中大概有一半在伯南克的言论发表后被强势美元给侵蚀了。

　　FX Alerts

　　STERLING HIGHER ON SALES DATA

　　零售数据让英镑走高

　　18/07/13@ 08:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130718/lingshou-shuju-rang-yingbang-zougao

　　GBPUSD 30 pips higher to 1.5205 after retail sales showed 0.2% monthly gain (expected was 0.3%). Back revisions to data allowing higher YoY rates vs. expectations, so sterling has strengthened as a result.

　　零售数据当月上涨了0.2%（预期是0.3%）后英镑美元走高了30个pip到了1.5205。数据增长减少让同比增长比预期要高，因此结果就是英镑走强。

　　FX Alerts

　　US CLAIMS AIDING FIRMER USD

　　美国申领数据帮助美元走高

　　18/07/13 @ 12:38 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130718/meiguo-shenling-shuju-bangzhu-meiyuan-zougao

　　USD slightly firmer after US weekly claims data lower than expected at 334k (expected 345k). EURUSD at 1.3080, USDJPY at 100.30.

　　美国每周失业申请救济数据比预期要低，位于33万4千（预期为34万5千），因此美元轻微走高。欧元美元位于1.3080，美元日元位于100.30。