本周伊始，澳新货币备受关注。新西兰恒天然曝“毒奶粉” 后，中国禁止从新西兰进口任何奶粉，使得纽元跳空至近一个月以来的最低价（0.7693），而弱于预期的澳大利亚零售销售数据拖累澳元在悉尼市场下滑至0.8848。

　　在中国，汇丰/Markit公布的指数显示，7月制造业PMI为51.3，而7月官方非制造业PMI从前一个月的53.9上扬至54.1。恒生指数和上证综指本周开盘小幅上扬，而日本的日经225指数下跌1.44％。

　　上周五公布的美国非农就业人数有所减少，让人大为吃惊，实际值为新增16.1万人，低于预期的新增18.5万人（上个月新增19.5万人）。因市场预期美联储会在9月开始削减，美元全面下滑。

　　在东京市场，因澳元兑日元和纽元兑日元承受大幅抛售压力，美元兑日元和日元交叉盘也纷纷被抛售。上周未能突破100.00表明美元兑日元或将进一步修正。有关美联储的温和揣测很可能会扩大美元兑日元的跌幅。买盘先是见于日云底（97.76）上方，然后是97.50（期权性风险）。

　　欧元兑美元隔夜整合美国周五非农就业数据释放的涨幅，但1.3300之前的卖盘依然限制了其上扬空间（尽管7月31日尝试上扬至1.3350的举动所持续的时间不长）。今天上午即将释放的PMI和欧元区零售销售数据应该引发欧元小幅修正。趋势势头仍然看涨；买盘见于1.3180-1.3200。与欧元兑美元交易模式类似的是，英镑兑美元已伴随着看涨势头攀升至1.5300以上，这说明其将进一步扩展至7月的高价位区间1.5400-35，然而，如果今天上午释放的PMI令人意外，则将拖累英镑。

　　在瑞士，第二季度瑞银房地产泡沫指数从1.17上涨至1.20。该数据释放后，瑞郎多头增强了美元兑瑞郎位于0.9300的阻力，留有进一步修正的空间。

　　本周一的重点是：瑞士第二季度瑞银房地产泡沫指数、瑞典、西班牙、意大利、法国、德国、欧洲区以及英国7月服务业PMI、欧元区6月零售服务月率和年率、美国7月ISM非制造业综合指数。

　　The Antipodeans sat under the spotlight at the start of the week. The Kiwi gapped to one-month low (0.7693) as China banned all milk powder imports from New Zealand amid news of Fonterra products contamination, while in Australia the weaker-than-expected retail sales sent the Aussie to 0.8848 in Sydney.

　　In China, the HSBC/Markit index showed that the manufacturing PMI held at 51.3 in July, while the official non-manufacturing PMI advanced to 54.1 in July from 53.9 a month before. Hang Seng and Shanghai’ Composite opened the week slightly on the upside, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.44%.

　　Released on Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls greatly surprised to the downside, with 161’000 jobs added versus 185’000 expected by the markets (and last month’s +195’000). USD broadly sold-off as the expectations on Fed tapering by September faded.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses were offered in Tokyo as AUDJPY and NZDJPY were under decent sell pressure. Last week’s failure to break above 100.00 suggests more correction in USDJPY. The dovish speculations on Fed are likely to expand weakness in USD against JPY. Bids are seen above the daily cloud base (97.76), then 97.50 on optionality.

　　EURUSD consolidated post-NFP gains overnight, yet offers pre-1.3300 still cap the upside (despite the short-lived attempt to 1.3350 on July 31st). Due in the morning, the PMI numbers and the Euro-zone retail sales should give minor direction to euro. The trend momentum is still bullish; bids are seen at 1.3180/1.3200. On similar pattern, the Cable climbed above 1.5300 with the bull momentum suggesting the extension of the strength towards July highs 1.5400/35, however any disappointment in PMI data should weigh on GBP this morning.

　　In Switzerland, the UBS real estate bubble index advanced from 1.17 to 1.20 in the second quarter. Post-data CHF-bulls reinforced the resistance in USDCHF at 0.9300, with room for further correction.

　　This Monday, the focus is on the Swiss 2Q UBS Real Estate Bubble Index, Swedish, Spanish, Italian, French, German, Euro-Zone and UK July PMI Services, Euro-Zone June Retail Services m/m & y/y, and US July ISM Non-manufacturing Composite.