日本股市收盘全面上涨;日经225指数激增2.21%,东证指数上涨1.97%。与之相反的是,中国股市因收紧流动性担忧而下滑。新兴市场货币表现不一:印度卢比兑美元从历史低点反弹至64.30;土耳其里拉兑美元在1.9975之前看到需求;而巴西雷亚尔也在巴西央行宣布大型外汇干预方案以支持该国货币之后而停止亏损。 美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场继续走高。美元兑日元清理了98.80(日云底)上的卖盘,并因美国短期基金、日本进口商和通常的周末前调整而上扬至99.11。下一组卖盘位于99.95-100,而股权买盘见于98.95,然后见于98。欧元兑日元上涨至132.34(近1个月以来的新高)。 欧洲央行诺沃特尼表示,欧元区最近释放的“利好消息流”移除了进一步降息的需要,使欧元继续上涨。虽然市场对强于预期的8月PMI初步值依然反应平淡,但欧元兑美元在1.3300上方预见支撑,虽然维持1.3335-68窄幅震荡。今早释放的德国第二季度GDP与市场预期一致,而政府支出、资金和建筑投资的上涨幅度超出市场预期。国内需求上涨0.6%,出口和进口分别上涨2.2%和2.0%。 澳元部分收复了昨日的损失;澳元兑美元在0.9000上遇到小型阻力,但还是成功反弹至0.9040,并在欧洲市场开盘后重挫回到0.8990-0.9010区间。澳元兑纽元仍在1.1490-1.1500区间之上获得良好支撑。 加拿大7月零售销售疲软,为加元兑美元清理阻力位1.0500提供了一个很好的理由。美元兑加元反弹至1.0557,为7月9日以来的最高水平。交易偏见仍呈稳定上升态势。 第二季度GDP(初步值)即将释放,英镑兑美元继续走软至1.5563,并在纽约市场和亚洲市场中于1.5600下方巩固。鉴于该货币对依然位于广泛的上行通道之内,GDP如意外上扬,则应该会在周末前给英镑兑美元提供新的刺。 今天,市场将集中关注以下数据:德国第二季度GDP(终值)季率和年率、私人消费、政府支出、资本及建设投资以及内需季率、德国第二季度出口及进口季率、英国第二季度(初步值)GDP季率和年率、固定资本形成总额季率、出口及进口季率、商业投资总额季率和年率、7月BBA购房贷款、加拿大7月CPI月率和年率、美国7月新屋销售月率和欧元区8月(初步值)消费者信心指数。 The Japanese equities ended the session in the green zone; the Nikkei 225 stocks surged 2.21%, Topix index added 1.97%. In opposition, the Chinese stocks lost ground on tighter liquidity concerns. The emerging market currencies showed mixed performances: Indian Rupee rebound from historical lows to 64.30 per dollar, Turkish Lira saw demand pre-1.9975, while Brazilian Real halted losses after Brazil central bank announced a large FX intervention program to support BRL. USDJPY and JPY crosses were better bid in Tokyo. USDJPY cleared offers at 98.80 (daily cloud base) and advanced to 99.11 on US short term funds, Japanese importers and usual pre-weekend adjustment. Next set of offers stand at 99.95/100, while option bids are seen at 98.95, then at 98. EURJPY advanced to 132.34 – one month high. Euro remained well bid amid ECB Nowotny said that the recent “stream of good news” in the Euro-zone removed the need for further rate cut. Whilst the markets remained muted to stronger-than-expected preliminary August PMI, EURUSD saw support above 1.3300 and traded within tight range of 1.3335/68. Released in the morning, data showed that the German GDP remained in line with expectations in the second quarter, while government spending, capital and construction investments advanced more than expected. Domestic demand improved 0.6%, exports and imports advanced 2.2% and 2.0% respectively. AUD partly recovered yesterday’s losses; AUDUSD saw light resistance at 0.9000, rallied to 0.9040 and tumbled back to 0.8990/0.9010 in Europe opening. AUDNZD remained well supported above 1.1490/1.1500. In Canada, the weak retail sales in June gave a good reason to clear resistance at 1.0500 against the US dollar. USDCAD rallied to 1.0557, the highest since July 9th. The bias remains solidly on the upside. Ahead of the preliminary second quarter GDP numbers, GBPUSD extended weakness to 1.5563, and consolidated below 1.5600 in New York and Asian sessions. As the pair remains within the broad uptrend channel, any positive surprise in data should give a fresh boost to GPBUSD before the week-end. Today, the markets will focus on German 2Q(Final) GDP q/q & y/y, Private Consumption, Government Spending, Capital & Construction Investment and Domestic Demand q/q, German 2Q Exports & Imports q/q, UK 2Q (Preliminary) GDP q/q & y/y, Gross Fixed Capital Formation q/q, Exports & Imports q/q, Total Business Investment q/q & y/y and July BBA Loans for House Purchase, Canadian July CPI m/m & y/y, US July New Home Sales m/m and Euro-Zone August (Advance) Consumer Confidence. |
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