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23/08/13@ 08:06 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130823/zhengzha-riyuan Data/Event Risks 数据／事件风险 EUR:The confidence data this afternoon notes a huge event risk for the euro, but data significantly stronger than expected could give the single currency a modest lift into the weekend. USD:After a wobble earlier in the year the new home sales data is seen continuing the improving trend, currently at levels seen 5 years ago but still some 65% below the peak seen at the height of the pre-crisis boom, a level that may never be achieved again. Data needs to be notably firmer than expected to impact the dollar, especially given strong focus on labour market data at this time. 欧元：今天下午的消费信心数据意味着欧元面临巨大的事件风险，但如果数据比预期要好很多的话将在周末给欧元以小幅提振。 美元：年初出现波动之后，新房数据现在持续的改善，目前达到了五年前的水平，但与经济危机之前的高峰相比仍然要低65%，这个高峰可能永远也达不到了。新房数据要比预期有显著提高才可能影响到美元，特别是现在劳动市场得到大量关注的情况下。 Idea of the Day 今日看法 A reasonably quiet Asian session for the major currency pairs with JPY standing out as the exception. USDJPY continued its move higher pushing just over the 99 level. EURJPY traded to a 4 week high reaching 132.34 so far. Today’s opportunities in JPY may well come in the form of technical analysis rather than an event based spark. Focussing on EURJPY the next resistance level to watch is 132.75. Any pullback and the 131.30 support is likely to become a focus for short term traders who missed the recent action. We've seen consolidation in Sterling after the gyration that followed the Fed statement on Wednesday and yesterday’s comments by the Bank of England’s Martin Weale suggesting further asset purchases remain a possibility if circumstances dictate may keep sterling’s upside limited for now. 对于主要货币对来说亚洲盘口相对宁静，而日元却是一个例外。美元日元持续走高到了99以上。欧元日元达到了四周以来的高点，目前为止在132.34。今天日元的机会也可能来到了，这个机会不是某个事件引起的火花，而是来自技术方面的分析。欧元日元下一个阻力点在于132.75。如果被拉回的话那么131.30这个支持点可能就会变成错过了近期变动的短期交易者眼中的焦点。我们发现，周三美联储发布声明导致转机出现后英镑在逐步稳固，而昨天英格兰银行的Martin Weale 发布言论认为，如果情况需要那么进一步资产购买仍然有可能，这种情况让英镑可能只可以在目前维持上行。 Latest FX News 最新外汇新闻 JPY:A weaker JPY overnight as the market absorbs the BOJ’s comments and its likely reaction to economic weakness. Market participants from varying sectors are reassessing their risk appetite and positions in light of this development. AUD:Aussie holds above its recent lows trading around physiologically important 0.9000 level. Although any significant recovery appears unlikely the downside pressure has eased as stocks hold on to modest gains. GBP:Very little change to GBPUSD overnight as it trades around the 1.5600 level. Rallies appear short lived as consolidation sets in. Today’s second reading of Q2 GDP at 08:30 GMT is unlikely to be a catalyst for a move today but worth keeping an eye on never-the-less. The initial reading came in at 0.6% Q/Q. 日元：前一天日元疲软，因为市场吸听信了日本银行的言论以及对经济疲软的应对。随着情况的发展，来自不同部门的市场参与者在重新评估其风险胃口和当前位置。 澳元：澳元保持在最近的低点之上，在生理学意义上的重点0.9000附近交易。尽管恢复的可能性不那么现实，但下行带来的压力已经减少因为股票方面有小幅上升。 英镑：前一天英镑美元改变甚少，因为此货币对在1.5600附近。反弹的过程很短，因为逐渐趋于稳定。今天格林尼治时间8点30分发布的第二季度GDP 数据的第二次读数不太可能在今天造成变动，不过还是值得关注。初始读数为季度环比0.6%。 FX Alerts GBP SECOND ESTIMATE GDP Q/Q AT 0.6% 英国GDP 第二次估计为季度环比0.6% 23/08/13@ 08:38 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130823/yingguo-gdp-dierci-guzhi-jiduhuanbi-06 GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q at 0.6% (actual) vs 0.7% (forecast) GBPUSD currently trading at 1.5625 英国GDP 第二次估计实际值为季度环比0.6%，预测是0.7% 英镑美元目前在1.5625 FX Alerts CAD CORE CPI M/M UNCHANGED AT 0% 加拿大核心CPI 月度环比0%，没有改变 23/08/13@ 12:34 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130823/jianada-hexin-cpi-yuehuanbi-0-weigaibian CAD Core CPI m/m remains unchanged at 0% (actual) vs 0% (forecast); USDCAD currently trading at 1.05532 加拿大核心CPI 阅读环比没有改变，还是0%，而预测也是0% 美元加元目前在1.05532 FX Alerts USD NEW HOME SALES AT 394K 美国新房销售39万4千 23/08/13@ 14:07 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130823/meiguo-xinfang-xiaoshou-39wan4qian USD New Home Sales at 394K (actual) vs 490K (forecast); EURUSD currently trading at 1.3370 美国新房销售为39万4千，预测是49万 欧元美元目前位于1.3370 |
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