28/08/13 @ 07:26 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130828/boe-zongcai-jintian-fayan-yingbang-chengwei-jiaodian

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP: New BOE governor Mark Carney is due to give a speech at lunchtime today where he is expected to defend his recent shift to providing forward guidance. Sterling will be in focus during this time as traders will want to hear more on whether it’s likely that interest rates will remain low for as long as indicated.

　　USD: Pending home sales from the US are due out today and are set to give yet another indication of the condition of the US housing market. The number is expected to show a small decline and so anything around this could give dollar bulls a little something to go with since negative economic data in the US decreases the chances of tapering.

　　英镑：英格兰银行新总裁 Mark Carney 今天午餐时间将要发表一个讲话，他可能会为自己最近转向提供先期指导这件事情辩解。这期间英镑会成为焦点，因为交易者们想要知道更多利率是否会象他们说的那样尽可能长时间的维持低位。

　　美元：美国待完成房屋销售数据今天将发布，而且会指出美国房屋市场的新状况。这个数据有可能会小幅下降，如果真的出现一些状况的话那么美元多头就事情做了，因为美国的经济数据变得负面的话就会减少紧缩计划出现的机会。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　The market is going to be focusing on what Mark Carney has to say today in his lunchtime (UK time) speech where he’s expected to focus on his recent move to providing forward guidance on his monetary policy decisions. This change of approach from the BOE is supposed to provide businesses and individuals more certainty in respect of the future path of interest rates, however since that move was made the market has almost outright rejected the governor’s view that UK interest rates will remain as low as 0.5% until unemployment hits 7% which is expected to be in 2016. Recent economic data has been stronger than expected showing that the UK economy is recovering well, especially with last week’s upgrade to Q2 GDP data. We are likely to hear some dovish comments from the governor but what will be more interesting is whether the market discards them just as it did when the forward guidance was provided a couple of weeks ago, thus sending sterling higher again.

　　市场正在关注 Mark Carney 今天午餐时间（英国时间）要发表的讲话，他可能会着重讲他的货币政策决策的先期指导。英格兰银行态度的改变会让商业和个人对于未来利率的走向更加确定，不过自从转变发生以后市场已经公开抛弃了英格兰银行总裁的看法，即失业率达到7%之前，也就是可能在2016年，英国的利率将维持在0.5%的低位。最近的经济数据比预期要强，这显示出英国的经济恢复得不错，特别是上周第二季度 GDP 得数据得到更新以后。我们可能会听到总裁发出一些温和得言论，不过更让人感兴趣的是市场是否会无视这些言论，就像几个星期前先期指导发布的那个时候一样，结果就是英镑再次走高。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　AUD: The prospect of military action in against Syria has hit riskier currencies such as the Aussie as investors seek the safe haven of the US dollar and Yen. AUDUSD breached its recent low around 0.8930 and is now testing support at 0.8900. Against the euro the Aussie hit a three year low.

　　USD: Yesterday’s US consumer confidence data came in slightly higher than expected but the dollar having commenced the session strongly gave back its gains once the data was released which is a move that goes against what one would expect. In this instance it was not a case of “taper on, dollar strong”.

　　澳元：针对叙利亚军事行动的前景打击了风险较高的货币，例如澳元，因为投资者在寻找美元和日元以避险。澳元美元突破的最近的低点0.8930，现在在尝试0.8900。针对欧元，澳元达到三年以来的低点。

　　美元：昨天美国的消费者信心数据比预期要高一点，但是美元开盘走强却因为数据发布而有了损失，这与常人的想法正好相反。这不是一个“紧缩上演，美元走强”的例子。