17/12/13 @ 08:40 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20131217/yingbang-geng-jianting

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP: There was a chunky drop in inflation in last month’s data, from 2.7% to 2.2% on an annual basis. It was changes in tuition fees and also petrol that pulled down the rate, so the market is expecting it to retain this lower level at 2.2%. Higher number would offer more support to sterling.

　　USD:The CPI data is the initial focus for the dollar, with headline prices seeing rising to 1.3%, whilst the core rate holds steady at 1.7%. The two day FOMC meeting begins today, but results are not due until later on tomorrow.

　　英镑：上个月的数据显示出通胀有小幅的剧烈下降，年度比例从2.7%到了2.2%。比例下降的原因就是学费和油价，因此市场期待2.2%这个数据能维持下去。如果数据走高可能会给英镑以更多支持。

　　美元：CPI 数据是美元方面一开始的焦点，整体价格上升到了1.3%，而核心利率稳定在1.7%。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）两天的会议在今天开始，不过会议结果要到明天晚上才能出来。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　The focus is on sterling with inflation data released today. Data last month showed the headline rate falling to the lowest rate in just over a year, this at a time when the economy has been outperforming. But this was owing to changes in fuel and also education, which tend to not be related to the pace of activity in the wider economy. This was also one of the biggest surprise inflation numbers for this year, as normally inflation has tended to come into line with expectations, after a strong period during latest 2010 and early 2011 during which it continually surprised to the upside. It can be better to watch the ‘core’rate during period of headline volatility, which excludes fuel, food and other volatile items. This is expected to nudge higher to 1.8% (from 1.7%), this being the lowest level for over four years. Sterling feels more vulnerable to a weaker number, given that it has lagged other currencies vs. the dollar so far this month, cable once again having retreated from the recent highs above the 1.64 level.

　　焦点在英镑以及今天发布的通胀数据上。上个月的数据显示出整体比例下降到一年以来的最低点，而此时经济表现超出平常。不过其原因在于燃料和教育方面的变化，而这两个因素通常和整体经济活动的步伐没有太大关系。这次通胀数据也是今年最让人吃惊的一次，因为通常情况下通胀基本会和预期一致，而在2010年年末和2011年初则出现过持续上涨的剧烈变化。在整体出现波动的时期仔细观察“核心”利率比较好，这个数据包括了燃料，食物和其他容易波动的因素。通胀数据预期会（从1.7%）小幅上扬到1.8%，这是四年以来的最低水平。英镑对于疲软数据会更加敏感，因为这个月以来其他货币，除开美元，都受到其更大的影响，英镑美元在此退行到最近的高点，到了1.64之上。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　EUR: Data yesterday from the ECB showed that banks are still repaying loans back to the ECB ahead of year end and this has seen money market rates squeeze further higher. But this was the last opportunity for banks to repay until the middle of January, so whilst rates remain high, they should not squeeze much higher from here. This could mean further euro strength limited from here.

　　AUD:No great surprises in the latest RBA minutes, which showed that the board saw the Aussie as “uncomfortably high”but were not yet prepared to close off the possibility of reducing rates further. The Aussie was a little choppy, but was ultimately unmoved by the release.

　　USD: The dollar finds itself near the lows of the past 6 weeks, even though the odds of tapering this week are more finely balanced that before (largely owing to euro developments). Firmer than expected industrial production yesterday also helped at the margin.

　　欧元：昨天欧洲央行的数据显示出众多银行仍然抢在年前偿付欠欧洲央行的贷款，而这种情况让货币市场利率开始走高。不过这是明年一月中之前最后一次机会了，因此当利率维持高位的时候，应该不会走得更高了。这意味着欧元继续走强的趋势将在此停下来。

　　澳元：澳联储最新的会议内容没有什么值得惊讶的，其董事会认为澳元“令人不舒服的高涨”，但是没有准备好彻底否定进一步降息的可能性。澳元仍然有点波动，但是对于数据发布最终无动于衷。

　　美元：美元达到过去六周以来的最低点将，尽管这个星期紧缩计划开始的机会比以前要更加平衡（主要是因为欧元最近的进展）。昨天的工业生产数据比预期要好，也在一定程度上有所帮助。

　　FX Alerts

　　GBP LOWER ON CPI

　　英镑由于CPI 走低

　　17/12/13 @ 09:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131217/yingbang-youyu-cpi-zoudi

　　Sterling touching the 1.6300 level after inflation data comes in a touch weaker than expected at 2.1% (from 2.2%). Core rate higher from 1.7% to 1.8%. Food and fuel prices pulling down the headline rate.

　　由于通胀数据比预期要低，（从2.2%）下降到了2.1%，英镑因此达到1.6300。核心利率从1.7%上升到了1.8%。食物和燃料价格拉低了整体比例。

　　FX Alerts

　　GERMAN CONFIDENCE DATA HIGHER

　　德国信心数据走高

　　17/12/13 @ 10:04 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131217/deguo-xinxin-shuju-zougao

　　The German ZEW survey was punchy for December, rising to 62.0 vs. expected 55.0. All well and good, but creates more tension for Germany for whom rates at 0.25% are too low for the broader health of the economy. Euro little moved though, holding tight to 1.3770.

　　德国十二月的ZEW 调查数据很有冲击力，上升到了62.0，预期是55.0。这种情况非常好，但是也给德国制造了更多紧张情绪，因为0.25%的利率对于经济的整体健康度来说还是太低了。欧元没有太多触动，稳定在1.3770。

　　FX Alerts

　　EUR SLIGHTLY SOFTER AFTER CPI

　　CPI 发布后欧元小幅疲软

　　17/12/13 @ 13:33 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131217/cpi-fabuhou-ouyuan-xiaofu-piruan

　　USD slightly softer after CPI data, headline measure rising to 1.2% (expected 1.3%), core rate stead (as expected) 1.7%. EURUSD 1.3760, GBPUSD 1.6280.

　　CPI 数据发布后美元小幅疲软，整体测算数据上升到1.2%（预期是1.3%），核心利率稳定（和预期一致）在1.7%。欧元美元位于1.3760，英镑美元位于1.6280。