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瑞讯银行Swissquote:国际收支平衡表(BoP)导致日元继续走软,瑞典通货膨胀引人关注

2014-11-11 17:25:04  文章来源:亚洲外汇网  作者:Swissquo…
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日本9月经常账户盈余增加至9630亿日元,远超市场预期的5377亿日元(前值为2871亿日元);贸易赤字从8318亿日元缩窄至7145亿日元。日元大幅贬值和油价继续走低极有可能是促成良好BoP的原因。东京市场上,美元兑日元以及日元交叉盘双双出现反弹,日经指数上涨2.05%。美元兑日元创下115.45,距离7年高位115.59仅有一步之遥。该货币对处在较深的超买状况之下,但压力依然为上行。止损位见于115.60 – 116.00上方。欧元兑日元在142.59 – 143.36盘整获利。关键阻力位在145.691227日最高价)。  

欧元兑瑞郎昨天下跌至1.20218,由于黄金公投之紧张局势达到顶峰,下行压力依然较高。期权市场定价转向。如果1.20之最低汇率所面临的压力未能缓解,我们应随时做好瑞士央行实施干预的准备。在黄金市场,趋势和势头指标均保持看跌。我们看到的看跌带控制线形态表明上行已经结束,卖出价依然稳定在1200美元/盎司。  

今天,瑞典克朗的交易者将密切关注瑞典央行10月会议纪要以及10月通货膨胀数据。预期通货膨胀仍将保持疲软,市场普遍预期10月环比值为-0.1%(同比为-0.2%9月同比值为-0.4%)。很明显,从宏观数据来看,想要看到1028日大幅下调利率25个基点所造成的影响还为时过早。美元兑瑞典克朗从3月开始在其上行通道内持续扩大获利。趋势和势头指标均十分看涨,或将突破7.45 – 7.50的水平。在下行路上,支撑位见于7.311921日移动均线),然后是7.222850日移动均线,兼411月上行趋势基底)。欧元兑瑞典克朗在9.18 – 23(涵盖了21 - 50日移动均线、100日移动均线以及710月下行趋势顶部)上方依然获得良好竞价,关键支撑位见于200日移动均线(当前在9.0882)。该货币对未能在其滚动200日移动均线下方交易已经超过了一年。  

俄罗斯央行不高兴看到卢布流动性不利于俄罗斯,将会通过调整卢布供应量来对抗投机性平仓。本周伊始,卢布转向自由浮动触发了其的反弹(卢布兑美元周一上涨2.43%),但卢布的总体偏见依然十分看跌。目前,卢布愈发受到宏观因素诸如通货膨胀、经常账户平衡、油价以及地缘政治紧张局势等的影响,而这些因数似乎均不利于卢布。我们认为卖出价会震荡回到48 – 50。此外,俄罗斯将于今天释放贸易和官方储备资产数据。  

10国集团经济日历相对稀少,由于处在退伍军人节假期,美国方面的数据流出也不多。值得交易者关注的有:瑞典10月失业率、CPI月率和年率;西班牙9月房屋交易年率;美国10NFIB小企业景气指数。  

Japanese current account surplus increased to 963.0 billion yen in September, significantly more than 537.7 billion expected (287.1bn last); trade deficit narrowed from 831.8 to 714.5 billion yen. The sizeable depreciation in Yen and lower oil prices are most probably the leading explanatory factors in outstanding BoP print. USD/JPY and JPY crosses rallied in Tokyo, Nikkei stocks gained 2.05%. USD/JPY hit 115.45, stone’s throw below 7-year high 115.59. The pair is deeply overbought, yet pressures remain on the upside. Stops are eyed above 115.60/116.00. EUR/JPY consolidates gains at 142.59/143.36. The key resistance stands at 145.69 (Dec 27th high).  

EUR/CHF legged down to 1.20218 yesterday. Downside pressures remain high as tensions on “Gold referendum” mount. The option markets are shifting toward “yes” pricing. We stand ready for SNB intervention should the pressures on 1.20 floor do not ease. In the gold markets, trend and momentum indicators remain on the downside. We see formation of bearish belt hold line suggesting the exhaustion of uptrend. Offers remain solid at $1,200.  

Today, SEK-traders watch Riksbank October meeting minutes and October inflation data. The inflation expectations remain soft, the consensus is -0.1% deceleration in month to October (-0.2% y/y vs. -0.4% y/y in Sep). It is clearly too early to see the impact of October 28th aggressive 25 basis point rate cut on the macroeconomic data. USD/SEK extends gains in the continuation of ascending channel building since March. Trend and momentum indicators are comfortably positive, 7.45/7.50 levels are at the radar. On the downside, support is seen at 7.3119 (21-dma), then 7.2228 (50-dma & Apr-Nov uptrend base). EUR/SEK remains well bid above 9.18/23 (including 21/50 and 100-dma & July-Oct downtrend top), key support is seen at 200-dma (currently at 9.0882). The pair did not trade below its rolling 200-dma in more than a year.  

The Russian Central Bank moved closer to a free-float mechanism by removing its predictable intervention policy framework and RUB basket band yesterday, therefore giving itself freedom to intervene unannounced when market moves in RUB threatens country’s financial stability. Unhappy to see the RUB liquidity played against the good of Russia, the CBR will fight speculative unwinds by adjusting supply. The shift toward free-float RUB triggered RUB rally at the week start (+2.43% vs. USD on Monday), yet the overall bias remains comfortably RUB-negative, now that the RUB will be increasingly subject to macro factors as inflation, current account balance, oil prices, and geopolitical tensions – all seeming to go against RUB. We expect a bounce back toward 48/50 offers. Russian trade data and official reserve assets are due today.  

G10 economic calendar is light, little data flow out of the US due to Veterans Day holiday. Traders watch Swedish October Unemployment Rate, CPI m/m & y/y, Spanish September House Transactions y/y, US October NFIB Small Business Optimism.  

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