G20会议和日本参议院选举已于上周末闭幕。正如市场普遍预期，执政联盟自民党 - 新公明党在日本7月参议院选举中大获全胜，共获得76个议席，远远高于需要获得简单多数的63个议席。然而，由于自明党获得的议席不足72个，使得安倍晋三先生所领导的自明党如果没有联盟的帮助就不会拥有多数议席，所以美元兑日元下跌至99.60。投标买入价见于99.80-100.00区域，而卖出价位于100.80-101.00以上（主因是期权风险性）。

　　在中国，中国人民银行取消借贷成本下限，为30％，低于基准借贷成本。恒生指数和上证综指本周开盘下行。在海外，因中国决定撤销借贷利率下限，澳元本周开盘上扬，澳元兑美元反弹至0.9235，但在本周晚些时候的CPI公布之前，我们的偏见依然是下行。因市场已经预期澳洲联储的降息几率为60％以上，所以通胀数据将是至关重要；疲软的通胀数据将只会提高澳洲联储降息的可能性，同时让澳元承受更沉重的抛售压力。

　　上周末发生的另外一件事是20国集团（G20）财政官员聚首莫斯科。G20呼吁欧洲各国财长沿着可信的财政和债务目标，将预算削减策略向经济增长策略转变。欧元兑美元本周开盘上扬，至1.3170，而在欧洲市场开盘有所走低。大量卖出价见于1.3200之前，而止损盘在该水平上面建立。

　　在加拿大，CPI年率符合市场预期，但好于加拿大央行上周早些时候的温和语调。美元兑加元在略高于1.0350的水平上整合亏损。美元兑加元的中期趋势依然是温和看涨，但依然存在向1.0.250-1.0300区域进一步向下修正的空间。

　　在其他地方，瑞士央行乔丹重申，将保持欧元兑瑞郎汇率上限不变，使得美元兑瑞郎从0.9685上反弹，但0.9380上方的投标买入价依然比较紧张。至于欧元兑瑞郎，1.2380（日云）上方的卖出价限制了该货币对的上扬空间，而面对这个缺乏事件的交易周，瑞郎的交易偏见依然是下行。。

　　今天，经济日历比较清淡，主要包括瑞士6月货币供应M3年率、美国芝加哥联储全国活动指数和美国6月成屋销售月率。

　　Here starts the week after the G20 meeting and Japanese Upper House elections over the weekend. As widely expected, the ruling coalition LDP-New Komeito won big the Upper House elections in Japan, with 76 seats, far above the 63 seats needed to secure simple majority. However, USDJPY fell to 99.60 as LDP fell short of 72 seats which would allow Mr. Abe’s party to take the majority without coalition help. Bids are seen at 99.80/100.00 area, while offers lie above 100.80 to 101.00 on optionality.

　　In China, the PBOC removed the floor on borrowing costs, which stood 30% lower than the benchmark. Hang Seng and Shanghai’s Composite opened the week on the downside. Overseas, aussie started the week on the upside on Chinese decision to remove the borrowing floor. AUDUSD rallied to 0.9235, yet the bias remains on the downside head of the CPI announcement later in the week. The inflation data will be crucial as the markets are already expecting a RBA rate cut with more than 60% chance; soft inflation figures will only enhance the likeliness of such action on the official rate and should keep the sell pressure tight on the aussie.

　　Other event during the weekend was the G20 financial officials’ gathering in Moscow. G20 called the European ministers to shift from budget-cutting to growth strategies, alongside with credible fiscal and debt goals. EURUSD started the week on the upside, advanced to 1.3170, while was pulled lower in the European opening. Decent offers are seen pre-1.3200, while stops are building above.

　　In Canada, the CPI y/y met the market expectations, yet managed to outweigh the BOC’s dovish tone earlier last week. USDCAD consolidated losses slightly above 1.0350. The mid-run trend on USDCAD remains decently bullish, yet there is room for more downside correction to 1.0.250/1.0300 area.

　　Else, SNB’s Jordan reiterated that EURCHF ceiling is to remain untouched, as USDCHF rebound from 0.9685 with bids still tight above 0.9380. On EURCHF, offers above 1.2380 (daily cloud) capped the strength while the CHF-bias remains on the downside ahead of an eventless week.

　　Today, the light economic agenda consists of Swiss June Money Supply M3 y/y, US Chicago Fed National Activity Index and US June Existing Home Sales m/m.