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上投摩根基金管理公司全球市场资讯周报(中英文)
作者:佚名 文章来源:不详 点击数: 更新时间:2007-7-18 9:39:06
sia Pacific 亚洲
 
All major indices for the region rose over the week, but there was a large disparity between market returns. The MSCI Far East ex Japan Index ended the week 4.8% in USD and 4.5% in local currency terms, with benchmark indices in Seoul and Hong Kong closing at record highs. Korea's KOSPI recorded a 6.7% increase. Export growth rose 15.9% YoY in June, up from 11.4% YoY growth in May and better than expected. Energy prices also pushed headline CPI higher, suggesting that the Bank of Korea's next MPC meeting will be hotly debated. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also performed well, returning 3.5% over the week and reaching new record highs. Strong retail sales were fuelled by tourism and solid domestic consumption.
 
 
Taiwan's TWSI increased 3.4%, with inflation pressures easing as June CPI rose just 0.1% YoY. June exports increased 11% YoY, the largest gain in five months and twice as much as analysts' forecast, thanks to robust demand from China and Europe. In Australia, the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 6.25%, and the trade deficit narrowed on stronger exports. The economy is running near full capacity and inflation pressures continue to build, suggesting there will be further rate rises to come. The All Ordinaries rose by 1.2% over the week.
 
 
China's stocks had another difficult week, but posted their biggest single-day rise in six months on Friday on speculation the government will take steps to support the market after three weeks of falls. Chinese A-Shares (-1.0%) pared their early losses towards week-end as rumours emerged that stamp duty, which was tripled in June, would now be cut. India's BSE National rose 1.8%. The country's headline inflation (4.1%) stayed near a 13-month low in the week ending 23 June. Singapore's Straits Times rose 0.4%. Surpassing market expectations, the economy grew an annualized 12.8% in 2Q'07 after a revised 8.5% gain in 1Q'07 as stronger demand for office space and private homes drove up construction activity.
 
 
上周区内主要股市全面报升,但市场间的回报却相去甚远。摩根士丹利远东(日本除外)指数以美元计升4.8%,以当地货币计则升4.5%,南韩及香港基准指数收市均创新高。南韩综合指数升6.7%。当地与去年同期比较的出口增长,由5月份的11.4%上升至6月份的15.9%,胜于预期。能源价格亦推高标题消费物价指数,意味南韩央行下次议息将会有一番激烈争论。香港恒生指数亦表现不俗,上周升3.5%,迭创历史新高。旅游业和内部消费稳健都为零售市道带来刺激。
 
 
台湾加权指数升3.4%,6月份消费物价指数升仅微升0.1%,通胀压力纾缓。有赖中国和欧洲需求殷切,6月份出口较去年同期增加11%,是五个月的最大升幅,比分析员预测高出一倍。 澳洲央行将利率维持在6.25厘水平,贸易赤字因出口增加而收窄。当地经济产能已接近饱和,通胀压力不断加剧,暗示加息会陆续有来。所有普通股指数上周升1.2%。
 
中国股市继续举步维艰,但却在上周五因传闻政府会出手支持股市而出现六个月最大单日升幅。有传闻指6月份提高两倍的印花税会下调,推动中国A股(-1.0%) 于上周尾段收回之前失地。印度孟买证交所指数升1.8%,当地在截至6月23日的一星期的标题通胀率为4.1%,逼近13个月低位。新加坡海峡时报指数升0.4%。商厦和私人住宅需求上升,刺激建造业活动,新加坡今年第二季经济增长按年计为12.8%,超出市场预期。
 
 Japan 日本
TOPIX ended the week just 0.3% higher after a six-day run of positive returns was reversed on Friday, led lower by weakness among auto makers and retailers on a report that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the government is considering lifting Japan's consumption tax. Fast Retailing fell 4.2% over the week after rising earlier in the session on news it has offered USD900 million to buy Barneys, the high-end clothier owned by Jones Apparel, topping an USD825 million bid from the government of Dubai's investment arm.
 
 
Real-estate stocks were the most prominent gainers amid a report that US investment fund Cerberus Capital Management may sell its 40% stake in Imperial Hotel to real-estate developer Mitsui Fudosan or Mitsubishi Estate. Imperial Hotel jumped 17.4%, Mitsui Fudosan gained 1.7% and Mitsubishi Estate 1.2% over the week. Moody's announced that Japan's yen debt rating, currently A2 (same as Poland and South Africa) was on review for upgrade. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold on Thursday.
 
 
The earnings season kicks off in July and we expect an upswing in earnings momentum to become apparent. Company forecasts will prove to be too conservative, particularly for exporters and those companies selling products to the fast growing emerging markets. Press attention has been given to the failure of many shareholder motions at the recent AGM's and the fact that more than 300 companies have enacted so called "poison pills". It has been suggested that this casts a negative shadow over Japan's real reform agenda. To some extent this is true, however, we believe that genuine progress is being made and most companies are steadily improving governance. The pressure comes as foreign ownership ratios continue to rise on a quarterly basis. Most of the failed motions involved funds trying to force through change (in some cases radical change), at companies even though they did not own the majority of shares.
 
有报导指首相安倍晋三表示政府正考虑提高日本消费税,汽车制造商及零售商股价偏软,拖累东京第一市场指数连升六日的走势于上周五逆转,收市仅微升0.3%。 上周初Fast Retailing被传出价9亿美元收购Jones Apparel所拥有的高档成衣制造商Barneys,刺激股价上升,其后倒跌4.2%,该公司的出价较杜拜政府投资部门所提出的8.25亿美元为高。
 
 
有报导指美国投资基金Cerberus Capital Management可能将所持有Imperial Hotel的40%股权售予房地产发展商Mitsui Fudosan或Mitsubishi Estate,房地产股跻身升幅最大行列。Imperial Hotel上周急升17.4%,Mitsui Fudosan升1.7%,Mitsubishi Estate则升1.2%。穆迪宣布正检讨是否调高日圆债务评级(现为A2,和波兰及南非看齐)。市场预料日本央行会在本周四维持利率不变。业绩期将于7月份展开,预料盈利动力会明显复苏。届时会发现企业的预测过于保守,出口商和向增长迅速的新兴市场销售货品的公司尤甚。
 
媒体都将注意力集中在近期股东周年大会上不少股东动议都未能通过的情况,300多间公司都制订所谓的「毒丸计划」,有可能令日本推行实质改革蒙上阴影。 以上推测某程度上正确,但我们认为改革已取得真正进展,大部分公司的管治都稳步向好。按每季计算的外资股权比例持续上升,形成压力。大多数未获通过的动议都涉及基金设法逼使企业推行改革(某些情况下是急进改革),即使该等基金并未拥有大多数股权。
 
 United States 美国
 
US equities made a strong start to the third quarter, shrugging off continued weakness in the credit markets and a rise in Treasury bond yields to end the week higher. Reassuring economic data and renewed M&A activity helped to push the Dow Jones up 1.5% and the S&P 500 up 1.8%. The NASDAQ rose 2.4% over the week, hitting a six-and-a-half-year high as investors took on riskier positions at the beginning of the quarter.
 
Technology stocks were boosted by the launch of Apple's new iPhone. Apple gained 8.4% over the week, and semiconductor maker Marvell Technology was lifted by news that it makes the phone's wi-fi chip. Research in Motion rose on the announcement that it had gained approval to sell its Blackberry device in China. Hotel stocks also had a good week, after a USD26 billion buy-out of Hilton Hotels by private equity group Blackstone sparked sector-wide gains. Starwood and Marriott climbed as investors anticipated further consolidation in the sector. In other deal news, AT&T agreed to buy regional wireless provider Dobson Communications, and an unnamed private equity company made a USD6 billion bid for chemicals maker Huntsman, competing with an earlier USD5.6 billion bid from Dutch chemicals company Basell Holdings.
 
Treasury bonds were undermined by the release of stronger economic data, but equity sectors that reflect good economic prospects rallied. The materials and industrials sectors were among those to benefit from the release of June's non-farms payrolls report, which showed that 132,000 jobs were created in June. Robust manufacturing and service sector data also boosted Wall Street. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 56.0 in June from 55.0 in May, while the index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 60.7 in June from 59.7 in May, against expectations of a slight fall. The heavy economic data schedule included further disappointing news for the housing market, as pending sales of existing homes fell by 3.5% in May to the lowest level since September 2001, crushing hopes of a rebound. However, the 0.5% decline in US factory orders in May was smaller than expected.
 
美股昂然踏入第三季,成功摆脱信贷市场持续偏软和国库债券孳息率上升的影响而高收。经济数据稳健和并购活动再度活跃,推动道琼斯指数上升1.5%,标准普尔500指数升1.8%。季初投资者吸纳风险较高的投资,刺激纳斯达克指数升2.4%,创六年半新高。苹果计算机(Apple)推出新型手机iPhone,刺激科技股造好。苹果股价上周升8.4%,制造iPhone所用wi-fi芯片的半导体制造商Marvell Technology亦受刺激。Research in Motion宣布已获准向中国销售Blackberry装置,股价上扬。
 
 
上周酒店股走势向好,私募基金集团百仕通(Blackstone)出价260亿美元收购希尔顿酒店(Hilton Hotels),刺激酒店股全在线扬。投资者预期酒店业会进一步合并,Starwood及Marriott攀升。 其它交易消息包括AT&T同意收购区域无线服务供货商Dobson Communications,以及一间不知名私募基金公司又出价60亿美元收购化学品制造商Huntsman,与较早前提出56亿美元作价的荷兰化工公司Basell Holdings展开争夺。
 
 
经济数据向好,国库债券受挫,但反映经济前景乐观的股份类别则见上扬。材料及工业股因6月份非农业支薪人数报告而受惠,6月份新增职位达132,000份。制造业与服务业数据稳健亦刺激美股造好。供应管理学会制造业指数由5月份的55.0上升至6月份的56.0,非制造业活动指数则由5月份的59.7上升至60.7,和市场原以为会轻微下跌的预期相反。经济数据源源而至,包括房屋市场消息令人失望,5月份现有房屋货尾销量下跌3.5%,创下2001年9月以来最低水平,令反弹期望落空。不过,5月份美国工厂订单下降0.5%的跌幅则较预期轻微。
 
 Europe 欧洲
 
In a positive week for European equity markets, the MSCI Europe index rose 1.1% over the week, despite less M&A activity than in recent weeks. The ECB kept rates on hold, but signaled that they would rise at a later date - money market consensus is calling for two further rises to at least 4.5%. In continental Europe, Germany's DAX lagged behind other stock markets with an increase of 0.5%, whilst the French CAC 40 and Swiss SPI both returned 0.8%. The automotive sector performed particularly well after a host of analyst upgrades, benefiting a range of companies including Sweden's Scania, Italy's Fiat and Germany's MAN. German diesel engine manufacturer Tognum's initial public offering on Monday was also Germany's largest since 2000.
 
Continuing the recent theme of private equity bid speculation, French hotel group Accor benefited from Blackstone's purchase of the Hilton Hotels group, and French supermarket giant Carrefour also rose on rumours that the Halley family is prepared to sell their 13% stake. In one of the few actual M&A deals to take place in Europe over the week, US biscuit manufacturer Kraft bought French food producer Danone's biscuit divisions. On a more negative note for French equities, a meeting hosted by French Prime Minister Sarkozy to resolve the planned Suez - Gaz de France merger stalemate failed to find a solution, causing both stocks to fall.
 
 
The region's star performer was the UK's FTSE 100, which increased 1.2%. The market shrugged off an interest rate rise to 5.75% and a 26-year high GBP/USD exchange rate of 2.02. The index was boosted by its heavily-weighted oil sector, with Brent crude prices hitting an 11-month high. The mining sector also performed well. BHP Billiton led the way, benefiting from its oil and gas divisions as well as a generally positive tone for mining stocks. The share price of platinum producer Lonmin also rose sharply on takeover rumours. The mining sector was further boosted by commodity price forecast upgrades of 50% from Credit Suisse for 2007.
 
并购活动虽然较最近数周淡静,欧洲股市上周造好,摩根士丹利欧洲指数升1.1%。欧洲央行维持利率不变,但暗示未来会上升 - 货币市场一般预期会再有两次加息,利率最少会上升至4.5厘。欧洲大陆方面,德国DAX指数升0.5%,落后其它股市,法国CAC 40指数和瑞士SPI指数都上升0.8%。
 
汽车股接连获分析员调高评级,表现殊佳,其中包括瑞典Scania、意大利Fiat和德国MAN。德国柴油机制造商Tognum于上周一招股,是德国从2000年以来最大型的招股活动。" 延续近期私募基金收购传闻主题,法国酒店集团Accor受惠于百仕通(Blackstone)收购希尔顿酒店(Hilton Hotels)集团的消息,法国超市巨企家乐福(Carrefour)亦因有传闻指Halley家族准备出售所持有的13%股权而上扬。上周欧洲方面少数真正成事的并购交易包括美国饼干制造商卡夫(Kraft)买入法国食品生产商达能(Danone)的饼干部门。
 
 
关于法国股市的利淡消息则有法国总理萨尔科齐(Sarkozy)主持会议以解决Suez与Gaz de France合并僵局,但未能找出解决方法,两间公司的股价均告下挫。区内以英国富时100指数表现最佳,升1.2%。纵使息口上升至5.75厘,英镑兑美元汇率又创下2.02美元的26年新高,英国股市完全不受影响。布兰特原油价格创11个月新高,富时指数受比重高企的石油股刺激。矿务股亦表现不俗。
 
 
BHP Billiton带动指数上升,受惠于旗下石油及天然气业务,以及矿务股普遍走势乐观。白金生产商Lonmin股价亦因收购传闻而急升。瑞信(Credit Suisse)将2007年商品价格预测调高50%,刺激矿务股进一步上扬。
 
 
 Global Emerging Markets 环球新兴市场
 
Emerging markets benefited from robust US economic data and improved investor risk appetite, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index recovering from the prior week's volatility to end 3.9% higher. In Latin America, Brazil's BOVESPA hit a new record high, rising 3.8% on speculation that US and Asian growth will boost commodity exports. A report showing that inflation in June was lower than economists expected also provided support as investors anticipated further interest rate cuts. Standard & Poor's raised Mexico's foreign debt rating from stable to positive, sparking a surge into the country's currency and stocks. The IPC ended the week up 4.1%, led by mobile phone company America Movil on anticipation of better-than-expected second quarter earnings.
 
 
Turkey's ISE National 100 was the week's strongest performer, soaring 6.0% to a record high after inflation slowed more than anticipated in June and brokers recommended buying Turkish shares on expectations the country's forthcoming parliamentary elections will improve political stability and boost economic growth. Elsewhere in emerging Europe, Russia was boosted by news that Sochi, the Black Sea resort, had won the battle for the 2014 Winter Olympics. Soaring crude prices also lifted Russian stocks, with oil producers leading the RTS index 4.1% higher over the week. In South Africa, meanwhile, the JSE All Share rose 3.1%, led by Impala Platinum as platinum prices continued to rise. Copper, lead, tin and zinc prices also gained, providing further support.
 
新兴市场受惠于美国经济数据稳健和投资者冒险意欲好转,摩根士丹利新兴市场指数由前周波动走势回升,高收3.9%。拉丁美洲方面,市场盛传美国及亚洲增长会刺激商品出口,巴西股市创新高,升3.8%。有报告指6月份通胀比经济分析员预期温和,投资者预期息口会进一步下调,亦可提供支持。标准普尔将墨西哥外债评级由稳定调高至正面,刺激墨西哥披索和股市急升。墨西哥股市收市升4.1%,升势由流动电话公司America Movil带动,该公司第二季业绩料将超越预期。
 
上周以土耳其股市走势最凌厉。6月份通胀降温情况较预期理想,各证券行又预计国会大选可改善政局稳定和刺激经济增长,并推介买入土耳其股份,刺激土耳其股市急升6.0%,创历史新高。新兴欧洲方面,有消息指黑海渡假村Sochi夺得2014年冬季奥运会主办权,刺激俄罗斯上扬。原油价格飙升亦刺激俄罗斯股市造好,产油商带动俄罗斯股市升4.1%。白金价格持续上扬,南非股市受Impala Platinum带动而上升3.1%。铜、铅、锡及锌的价格亦见上扬,进一步提供支持。
 
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