Swissquote Bank：新兴股市走高，外汇行动不多
中国股市本周高开，而大多数新兴市场股市本周一开盘走高。杰克逊霍尔会议（于8月24日闭幕）的主旋律是美联储削减计划及其对新兴市场的影响。巴西央行副行长佩雷拉表示，美联储削减信号有利于美国经济增长，因此比较积极；但摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数自8月以来已下跌2.68％；近几周来，大量资本从重创的新兴市场货币中加速流出。 美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场变化不大。日本央行行长黑田东彦对较高的通胀预期表达支持性意见，并补充表示日本不存在系统性风险。美元兑日元本周开盘于98.17，随后因日本养老基金和机构投资者的需求而迅速攀升至98.85。需求见于99.00（21日移动均线）和99.15（上周的最高价）以上。 在新西兰，7月贸易平衡录得赤字7.74亿纽元，主因是出口下降（从6月的40.2亿纽元下降至7月的38.5亿纽元），进口上扬（从6月的36亿纽元上扬至7月的46.2亿纽元）。数据释放后，纽元兑美元大幅下跌至0.7784，之后因空头回补反弹至0.7834。更多供应见于0.7850，然后是1.7895（50日移动均线）。澳元兑纽元在1.1600之前触及阻力，随后下跌至1.1538。 澳元周一开盘积极性不大。0.9050上方的出价拖累澳元兑美元下跌至0.9010。部分期权报价见于0.9000，但较高的澳元依然是澳洲联储采取进一步降息行动的威胁；长期投资者正在寻找逢高卖出。 欧元兑美元上周五曾因疲弱的美国新房销售数据而测试过1.3410，今天在亚洲市场维持区间震荡。欧元多头谨慎地占据上方，传言亚洲主权级报价位于1.3400-30区域。在早盘中，1.3375上方的报价比较利好该货币对；而更多报价位于1.3300上方。 英镑兑美元维持1.5563-1.5589窄幅震荡。由于伦敦银行今天休假，预计该货币对将继续维持区间震荡。 周一经济日历比较清淡：西班牙和瑞典7月PPI月率和年率、美国7月耐用品订单、去除运输外的耐用品订单、去除飞机及零部件外的非军事资本货物新订单、去除空运外的资本货物装运以及美国8月达拉斯联储制造业活动。 The Chinese stocks started the week on the upside, while the majority of emerging market stocks traded in the green this Monday. The main theme in Jackson Hole meeting (that ended on Aug 24th) was Fed’s tapering plans and the impacts on the emerging markets. The Brazil’s central bank DepGov Pereira said that the Fed tapering signals supportive US growth thus positive; nevertheless the MSCI emerging markets index lost 2.68% since the begging of August; a significant capital exodus hammered EM currencies in accelerated pace over the past weeks. USDJPY and JPY crosses did little in Tokyo. The BoJ Governor Kuroda voiced supportive comments on higher inflation expectations, adding that there is no systemic risk for Japan. USDJPY opened the week at 98.17 and quickly climbed to 98.85 on Japanese pension funds and institutional demand. Offers are seen at 99.00 (21-dayMA) and above 99.15 (last week high). In New Zealand, the trade balance printed NZD -774mn deficit in July due to lower exports (from NZD 4.02bn in June to 3.85bn in July) and higher imports (from NZD 3.60B in June to NZD 4.62bn in July). NZDUSD dipped down to 0.7784 and rebounded to 0.7834 on short covering. More offers are seen at 0.7850, then 1.7895 (50-dayMA). AUDNZD hit resistance pre-1.1600 and eased down to 1.1538. The Aussie opened the week with little enthusiasm. Offers above 0.9050 pulled AUDUSD down to 0.9010. Some option bids are seen at 0.9000, yet the high AUD is still a threat for further RBA action towards lower interest rates; long-term players are looking to sell the rallies. EURUSD remained range-bound in Asia after having tested 1.3410 on weak US new home sales on Friday. EUR-bulls are cautiously in charge, with rumors on Asian sovereign offers at 1.3400/30 area. Bids above 1.3375 were supportive in the early session; more bids trail above 1.3300. Else, the cable traded within the tight range of 1.5563/1.5589 and expected to remain range-bound due to London bank holiday today. The economic calendar is light this Monday: Spanish and Swedish July PPI m/m & y/y, US July Durable Goods Orders, Durables Ex Transportation, Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Ex Aircraft & parts & Capital Goods Shipments Ex Air and US August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity. |
