Swissquote Bank：日本央行维持政策不变，澳大利亚贸易平衡出现赤字
隔夜，重要的地缘政治消息成为头条新闻。美国参议院通过了攻打叙利亚的授权，这让美国距离最终决定又近了一步。美国总统奥巴马表示，对于叙利亚使用化学武器攻击平民不采取攻打的决定将只会增加叙利亚进一步使用化学武器攻击平民的风险，而俄罗斯总统普京表示，美国国会不能将在叙利亚的侵略活动合法化。据彭博报道，二十国集团会议今明两日在圣彼得堡召开，世界领先的领导人将讨论有关认可长期增长的策略。 英国央行和欧洲央行的政策决定将是今日的关键事件。预计他们都将维持政策利率和目标不变；但预计随附的声明会引起欧元和英镑波动。昨日释放的美国贸易赤字扩大，引发欧元兑美元反弹至1.3218，但因欧洲央行行长德拉吉的新闻发布会和周五的美国非农就业数据尚未揭晓，该货币对又回吐了涨幅。如果德拉吉行长释放的言论较为强硬（或不那么温和），则应该会让欧元多头信心恢复，而首批买入价见于1.3140-60（200日移动均线 – 周内支撑位） 。至于英国央行，市场很好奇卡尼先生及其政策委员会是否会发布任何声明或在货币政策委员会会议结束后就抵押贷款市场发表任何意见。 日本央行9月维持政策不变；货币基础将继续每年增加60-70万亿日元，2014年的货币基础目标仍然维持270万亿日元不变。日本财务省8月30日的数据显示，上周外国投资者对日本债券的兴趣有所上扬，股市资金外流速度加快。美元兑日元在东京市场测试100.00 ，但日本出口商和期权要约限制了反弹空间。该交叉盘继续在线图一目均衡表云底（99.36）以上获得良好支撑，买入价已进入99.30-50区域。大规模期权要约很可能会挑战上部的100.00和100.50。 在澳大利亚，7月贸易平衡赤字7.65亿澳元（6月盈余6.2亿澳元），主因是进口较高。大宗商品出口收入部分恢复了6月跌幅，天然气和石油的出口收入有所增加。澳元兑美元仍然受制于0.9200之前的卖出价，更多卖出价见于0.9230-40（1个月高价区间）和0.9300-20 （7月阻力位区间）。澳元短期趋势势头表明可能会进一步走高，但叙利亚紧张情绪可能会继续限制上扬空间。 今天，瑞典央行、英国央行和欧洲央行都将做出政策决定。经济日历由以下数据组成：法国第二季度ILO失业率、德国7月工厂订单月率和年率、美国8月ADP失业人数变化、美国8月31日首次申请失业救济金人数、美国8月24日持续申请失业救济金人数、美国第二季度（终值）非农生产率和单位劳动成本、美国7月工厂订单和美国8月ISM非制造业综合指数。 Important geopolitical news occupied the headlines overnight. The US senate panel passed the authorization to attack Syria, bringing US one step closer to the final decision. The US President Obama stated that the decision to not respond to Syrian chemical attack would increase the risk of further attacks, while the Russian President Putin stood against saying that the US Congress cannot “legitimize aggression” in Syria. The G20 meeting is due today and tomorrow in St-Petersburg, where the world leading leaders will discuss about strategies to endorse long term growth, according to Bloomberg. Ahead of us, the BoE and ECB policy verdicts will be the key events of the day. The respective policy rates and targets are expected to remain unchanged in both meetings; however the accompanying statements are expected to trigger volatility in EUR and GBP. After having rallied to 1.3218 on widening US trade deficit yesterday, EURUSD pared gains ahead of Mr. Draghi’s press conference & Friday’s US NFP numbers. Any hawking (or less dovish) comment from Draghi should restore confidence in euro-bulls, while first set of bids are seen at 1.3140/60 (200-dayMA & intra-week support). Regarding the BoE, markets are curious to see if Mr. Carney and the policy committee will release any statement, or comment on the mortgage market post-MPC. The Bank of Japan leaved the policy unchanged in September; monetary base will continue to grow by Yen 60-70 trln annually, the 2014 monetary base target remains unchanged at Yen 270trln. August 30th MoF data shows that the foreign interest in Japanese bonds increased last week, the outflow from stocks accelerated. USDJPY tested 100.00 in Tokyo, yet Japanese exporters and option offers capped the rally. The cross remained well supported above the Ichimoku cloud base (99.36) and bids moved to 99.30/50 area. Large option offers are likely to challenge the upside at 100.00 & 100.50 moving forward. In Australia, the trade balance printed AUD 765M deficit in July (vs. AUD 620M surplus in June), due to higher imports. The export revenue from commodities partly recovered the drop in June, revenues from natural gas and petroleum oils increased. AUDUSD remains capped by offers pre-0.9200, more offers are seen at 0.9230/40 (one month high) & 0.9300/20 (July resistance zone). The short term trend momentum suggest further highs, yet the jitters in Syria are likely to keep the upside limited. Today, Riksbank, BoE and ECB will give policy verdict. The economic calendar consists of the French 2Q ILO Mainland Unemployment Rate, German July Factory Orders m/m & y/y, US August ADP Unemployment Change, US August 31st Initial Jobless Claims, US August 24th Continuing Claims, US 2Q (Final) Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Cost, US July Factory Orders and US August ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite. |
