中国释放好于预期的9月制造业PMI（实际值为51.2，高于预期中值60.9和前值50.1），所以本周以良好情绪开始。上证综指上涨1.31％，而恒生指数下跌0.73％。中国央行将美元兑人民币中间价设定为6.1475，为2005年重估以来的最高水平。
隔夜，良好的中国PMI帮助澳元兑日元恢复至93.60；澳元兑美元在早盘中上涨至0.9438。澳元走强，加大了澳洲联储未来降息以降温市场的可能性，使得澳元兑美元依然在0.9500之前窄幅震荡。
美元兑日元和日元交叉盘涨跌互现，假期交投量不大，美元兑日元在东京市场于99.10水平处获得支撑。欧洲市场开盘后，该货币对下滑至98.91；买入价见于98.90-99.00，而股权买入价在98.00上面建立。
在德国，默克尔所领导的基督教民主党赢得41.5%的多数选票，所以默克尔需要寻找新的执政伙伴。德国大选的最终结果对单一货币的影响甚小。上周五到达1.3554之后，欧元兑美元本周开盘小幅下行。该货币对依然在1.3520上方获得良好支撑。美联储决定维持每月资产购买规模在850亿美元不变，而未来美国预算/债务期限的不确定性将很可能会让欧元兑美元继续获得良好支撑。即将释放的欧元区制造业PMI和欧洲央行行长德拉吉的证词将成为目前欧元的主要驱动因素。
在其他地方，鉴于第二季度GDP终值将于本周四释放，英镑兑美元守住1.5980-1.6000以上的实力。自上周反弹至1.6163之后，回落至1.6000有助于缓解上部的紧张情绪。相对强弱指数仍保持在70％ - 过度买进区域。
今天，重点是瑞士8月M3货币供应、KOF研究所9月经济预测报告、法国、德国和欧元区9月（预先值）服务业和制造业PMI、欧元区9月PMI综合指数以及美国8月芝加哥联储全国活动指数。
The week starts with good sentiment as China prints better than expected manufacturing PMI in September (51.2, versus 60.9 expected & 50.1 prev). Shanghai’s Composite added 1.31%, while Hang Seng index retreated 0.73%. PBOC set the Yuan mid-point at 6.1475 versus US dollar, the highest since 2005 revaluation.
The good Chinese PMI helped AUDJPY to recover to 93.60 overnight; AUDUSD traded up to 0.9438 early in the session. Offers remain tight pre-0.9500 as stronger AUD increases the probabilities for a future RBA rate cut to cool down the markets.
USDJPY and JPY crosses were mixed with thin holiday volumes giving support to USDJPY at 99.10 in Tokyo. The pair slipped to 98.91 in the European opening; bids are seen at 98.90/99.00, while option bids are building above 98.00.
In Germany, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats won the elections with 41.5%, just under the majority leaving Merkel in obligation to find a partner. The German elections finally had little impact on the single currency. EURUSD opened the week slightly on the downside, after having traded at 1.3554 on Friday. The pair remained well supported at 1.3520. Fed decision to leave the asset purchases at USD 85bn per month and upcoming uncertainties on US budget/debt deadlines are likely to keep EUR well supported against USD. The manufacturing PMI releases across the Euro-zone and ECB President Draghi’s testimony will be the main EUR-drivers ahead of us.
Else, GBPUSD defends strength above 1.5980/1.6000 before 2Q final GDP numbers due Thursday. After last week’s rally to 1.6163, the pullback to 1.6000 helped to release tensions on the upside. RSI still remains at 70% - overbought region.
Today, the focus is on Swiss August M3 Money Supply and KOF Institute’s September Economic Forecast Report, French, German and Euro-Zone September (Advance) PMI Services & Manufacturing, Euro-Zone September PMI Composite and US August Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
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