17/03/14 @ 08:38 GMT by Angus Campbell, Senior Analyst
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140317/shichang-baituo-kelimiya-gongtou
The major risk event over the week end is now behind us and as is often the case we’ve seen a “buy the rumour, sell the fact”situation where safe haven assets had been bought in the run up to last week end and now the event is over those safe havens are reversing that move. Gold is a little lower having reached as high as $1390.0 in the early hours of the morning and now is back to $1381.1, meanwhile the Yen is giving back some ground as USDJPY bounces off Friday’s 101.20 low to 101.55. Even equities are a higher on the open this morning but one can’t help but think that this little shift back into risk might be rather short lived considering the headwinds that remain and the geopolitical tensions over Crimea are unlikely to end at this juncture.
The focus for the week ahead will not only continue to be on the themes that have dominated so far i.e. China and the Federal Reserve’s tapering, but the Eurozone will be back in focus especially this morning as CPI data is due to be released at 11.00 GMT. We’ve already seen the flash report which came in at 0.8% and led to an extension of the single currency’s strength with EURUSD taking another step closer to the 1.4000 mark, but in the latter part of last week the euro softened and this morning EURUSD is a lower at 1.3885.
Also this week are the FOMC rate decision and the UK budget on Wednesday with the latter likely to grab many of the headlines with a UK General Election only a year away.
这个周末主要的风险事件已经过去，和往常一样我们发现了“传言时买入，证实时卖出”这种情况，期间避险资产被匆匆买入一直持续到上个周末。现在这件事情结束，那些避险资产则逆转了这种变化。上午黄金达到1390.0 美元的高点之后有一些走低，目前回到了1381.1 美元，同时日元也丢失了一些收获因为美元日元从周五的低点101.20 回到了101.55。尽管今天上午开盘时股票走高，我们还是禁不住认为这种回到风险的小变化可能转瞬即逝，因为时局以及克里米亚的地缘政治紧张局势不太可能在这个关节结束。
这一周的焦点不会仍然是此前一直占据头条的事情，也就是中国以及美联储的紧缩，不过欧元区可能会重新成为焦点，特别是今天上午。因为CPI 数据将在格林尼治时间11 点发布。我们已经发现预测报告为0.8%，并有可能扩展欧元的强势，而欧元美元则进一步接近1.4000 这个位置，不过上周的后半段欧元有点软化，而今天上午欧元美元稍微低于1.3885。
同时这个星期还有联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的利率决议，周三还有英国的预算。后者有可能会登上很多报纸的头条，因为此时离英国大选只有一年了。
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