Once again, the best laid plans are not going to plan. The dollar is weaker this morning, which has seen the dollar index move to new lows of the year. This morning at least, we are seeing some factors from the European side pushing it lower, most notably sterling, which has pushed through the late 2009 highs and is now looking at the August high at 1.7063. Firmer data in the form of UK Services PMI has been a factor here, together with continued strong data on the housing side.
On the dollar, there was the usual sinking feeling at the end of last week after the US employment report. Whilst the headline number was better than expected, there was the usual feeling that the message was not as strong as the headline data suggested. Once again, we saw a strong fall in the participation rate, which shows a falling proportion of the working age population either in work or looking for work. This tends to flatter the unemployment rate, as the labour force shrinks. This may seem a technical point, but simply the US is expecting more (in term of tax revnues etc.) from an ever smaller proportion of the working age population.
For FX this week, expect the dollar tone to dominate and keep an eye on both EUR and GBP for further breaks of key levels. The Aussie was naturally volatile after the RBA decision overnight, with rates kept on hold, but the net response was little changed before AUDUSD benefited from the generally weaker dollar.
完美的计划又一次泡汤了。今天上午美元疲软，美元指数下降到今年的新低。至少今天上午我们发现是欧洲的一些因素导致美元走低，其中最值得注意的就是英镑，突破了2009 年的高点，现在正朝着八月的高点1.7063 冲刺。英国的服务业PMI 变坚挺也是因素之一，而房屋数据持续走强也火上浇油。
美元方面，上周末美国就业报告发布后人们感觉会出现常见的下跌。虽然整体数字比预期的要强，但我们还是感觉数据传递的消息不如数据本身那么强势。我们又一次发现就业参与率出现大幅下跌，这显示出在工作或者正在找工作的工作年龄人口的比例在下降。这种情况会让失业率增加，因为劳动人口减少了。看起来一切都是技术上的统计，但美国从逐渐减少的工作年龄人口身上要的东西确是越来越多（税收等）。
对于这一周的外汇来说，美元面临的局势可能占主导地位。要同时关注欧元和英镑，这两个货币可能继续突破关键水平。前一天澳元出现波动，原因是澳洲联储发布决定让利率维持稳定，不过没有造成太大影响，随后澳元美元由于没预案普遍疲软而获利。
Dollar weaker early on
美元疲软
by Simon Smith, Chief Economist
May 6, 2014 @ 8:49 UTC
Market Snapshots
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140506/meiyuan-piruan
The US dollar weaker into the European session, most notably against the euro, which has seen EURUSD move up to levels last seen mid-March. Sterling has been slower, but has pushed through the late 2009 high of 1.6878 which puts the August high of 1.7043 at the next key level to target. Firmer services PMI data this morning has been supportiving, rising to 58.7. There are also signs that the housing market continues to improve and this causing more questions regarding the sustainability of the Bank of England’s forward guidance on rates. We’ll get more on this with the release of the Inflation Report next week.
欧洲盘中美元疲软，疲软主要是针对欧元；欧元美元上涨到三月中旬的水平。英镑放慢了速度，但已经突破到了2009 年高点的水平，为1.6878；这让八月的高点1.7043 成为下一个关键目标。今天上午服务业PMI 数据更加坚挺，上升到了58.7。也有迹象显示房屋数据会继续改善，这也导致了人们更多质疑英格兰银行的利率先期指导是否可持续下去。下周通胀报告发布我们将得知更多这方面的信息。
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