http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140324/zhijie-huijia
We are entering the last week of the current quarter, which has turned out to be one of mixed fortunes for FX. The general thinking was that tapering from the US Fed would see the dollar continue to gain at the expense of other currencies, especially the euro given the potential for further ECB easing. The dollar story has not panned out as expected, currently almost exactly at the same point at which it started the quarter on the dollar index. Of course, some of this could have been down to the soft patch in data caused by the bad weather in the US over this time, but that’s not the whole story, as the downward revisions to Q4 growth illustrates. We’ve also seen the euro surprise on the upside once again, together with sterling performing better than generally expected.
For this week, the focus is initially on PMI data. HSBC manufacturing data for China seen earlier today showed a further decline to 48.1 (expected 48.1), which knocked some of the wind out of the Aussie initially, but AUDUSD has since recovered to near the 0.9100 level. In Europe, the single currency has received a lift from the initial preliminary readings from France, which moved back above the 50.0 level to 51.9 on the manufacturing series. This is the third consecutive monthly increase and also the third that has beaten expectations, suggesting that France is down, but not out. The focus stays with Europe tomorrow, with the release of the German IFO data and UK inflation data, which is seen moving further below target.
这一季度的上一周对于外汇来说情况似乎比较纠结。大致的想法就是美联储的紧缩会让美元以牺牲其他货币的代价而继续获利，特别是欧元，因为欧洲央行有可能继续实行宽松计划。但美元的故事并没有如期待那样展开，而且几乎就在同一时间点这一季度是以美元指数开始的。当然，其中的部分原因是因为这段时间美国的气候很糟糕而导致的数据疲软，不过总的原因却不是如此，第四季度增长数据被向下修改就说明了这一点。我们也发现，欧元在上行方面再次令人感到惊讶，而英镑的表现也比一般的预测要好。
这一周的焦点一开始是PMI 数据。今天早些时候香港汇丰银行（HSBC）发布的中国制造业数据进一步下跌到了48.1（预期是48.1），一开始让澳元失去了一些气势。但是澳元美元随后恢复到了接近0.9100 这个水平。欧洲，由于法国的制造业系列初步数据从50.0 上升到了51.9，欧元因此得到提振。这是连续第三个月上涨而且也是第三次让预期受到打击，也意味着法国受到打击但还没有出局。明天的焦点依然是欧洲，会发布德国的IFO 数据和英国的通胀数据，预期会低于目标。
FX Alerts
EUR REVERSAL ON GERMAN PMI
德国PMI 导致欧元逆转
24/03/14 @ 08:36 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20140324/deguo-pmi-nizhuan-ouyuan
EURUSD losing initial gains on stronger French PMI data as German release disappoints. EZ release at 09:00 GMT. EURUSD below 1.38, high at 1.3825.
由于法国数据走强，欧元美元失去一开始的获利。德国的数据则令人失望。格林尼治时间9 点会发布EZ 数据。欧元美元低于1.38，高点在1.3825 处。
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