A lack of major economic releases yesterday meant for a slow day of trading but overnight the Yen has seen a little action as USDJPY hits a three week high just pushing up against the 102.00 level.A surprise rise in unemployment to 3.7%and weaker retails sales in Japan gave traders an excuse to sell the Yen as they perceive the chances of further QE having increased,despite words form BOJ board member Koji Ishida giving away little in a speech overnight.
昨天没有发布什么主要的经济数据，这意味着当天的交易缓慢；不过昨天日元出现了一点状况，因为美元日元达到了三周以来的高点，正向着102.00这个水平前进。由于日本的失业率突然上升到了3.7%而且销售疲软，让交易者有了借口卖出日元。因为这些交易者觉得量化宽松再次到来的可能性增加了，虽然日本银行董事会成员Koji Ishida的讲话就泄露了一点点信息。
Things should warm up a little from today onwards as we have a speech from the UK’s MPC member Ben Broadbent this morning,now the deputy governor for monetary policy and seen as one of the more hawkish voting members and then consumer confidence data from the US later this afternoon.This is likely to be a market mover as it’s one of the key metrics the Federal Reserve watch since the US economy is so heavily reliant on the consumer.
今天的热度应该会上升一些，因为英国货币管理委员会（MPC）成员Ben Broadbent今天上午会发表讲话。此人现在是负责货币政策的助理总裁，被视为投票人当中的较为强硬派。今天下午还有美国的消费信心数据。这个数据对市场会造成影响，因为这是美国经济严重依赖消费者之后，美联储严重关切的数据之一。
The emphasis remains on the dollar and whether it can add to the gains it has made so far this month hovering around six week highs.Against sterling and the euro,the dollar has made good ground in recent weeks with cable remaining below the 1.7000 level and EURUSD seemingly anchored to just above 1.3400.Despite diverging central banks,in respect of the BOE and Federal Reserve,some of the UK data has softened leading to a protracted bout of profit taking in GBPUSD,which is susceptible to seeing further downside especially if this afternoon’s US consumer confidence,which is expected to rise from 85.2 to 85.3,comes in higher.
美元还是重点。我们要看的是美元是否能够在这个月上涨的基础上继续上行，因为美元已经靠近六周以来的高点。针对英镑和欧元，最近几周美元的情况已经不错。英镑美元维持在1.7000这个水平之下，而欧元美元看起来停滞了下来，仅仅高于1.3400。虽然央行和央行都不一样，但是从英格兰银行和美联储来看，英国的一些数据已经疲软，导致英镑美元的获利出现收缩。特别是今天下午美国消费信心数据发布还会继续下行。美国的消费信心数据可能走高，从85.2上升到85.3。
地缘紧张局势没有影响美国消费者信心
There were concerns that the consumer confidence figure release today was going to be knocked by the recent build up of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East,but this certainly wasn’t the case.Stock markets and risk assets continue to defy gravity and it looks like the US economy will have rebounded from its shock fall in GDP last month strongly–we will see tomorrow.With the labour market continuing to improve it’s little surprise to see a cheerier US consumer and the dollar remains well supported receiving a further boost today.
曾经有人担心今天发布的消费者信心数据会受到最近乌克兰和中东紧张局势的不利影响，不过这一次情况却不是如此。股票市场和风险资产继续无视各种影响，而且看起来美国的经济会从上个月GDP的下降造成的影响中恢复－我们明天就能见到分晓。随着劳动市场继续改善，毫无意外美国消费者信心会上升，而今天美元仍然会受到很好的支撑。
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