Swissquote Bank：澳洲联储会议纪要释放后，澳元遭遇抛售，日元需求旺盛 Aussie Sold post-RBA， JPY in Demand
Posted by Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Tue Aug 20 09:05:57 CEST 2013
隔夜，亚洲的股票和债券市场双双下滑；金价和油价触底。在外汇市场方面，澳洲联储和新西兰联储的会议纪要令澳元和纽元在兑美元时成为最大的输家。澳洲联储8月6日的政策会议纪要重申，澳元仍被高估，通胀预计维持在目标区域内，而增长态势应该会继续温和直至回升。会议纪要并且明确提及进一步降息的意向，但委员们同意会为实施更多宽松政策的选择留有余地。在新西兰，新西兰联储调查结果显示，通胀预期两年内首次上扬（一年通胀预期从1.52％上扬至1.9％，而两年通胀预期从2.06％上扬到2.36％）。 温和的澳洲联储预期在澳洲联储会议纪要中得到了证实，澳元兑美元下滑至0.9044。少量的买盘见于0.9050，止损盘在该水平下方建立。交易偏见明显是下行。另一方面，纽元兑美元在澳洲联储会议纪要过后大幅下跌至0.7974，随后趋稳。较高的通胀预期有助于限制该货币对的下行空间。买盘见于0.7950，而卖盘在0.7950和0.7935下方建立。 美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场遭遇抛售。早盘中，美元兑日元因薪酬结算日需求而上扬至97.86。卖盘将上扬空间限于21日移动均线（97.99），随着市场的大幅下滑，该货币对下滑至97.18。首批买盘位于97.00以上。 在欧洲，德国总理默克尔拒绝在9月22日大选之前引入欧元债券和共同债务赎回基金计划，而荷兰财长Dijsselbloem表示，荷兰不会努力将其赤字维持在欧盟规定的区间内。欧元交叉盘在亚洲市场的主要行情是上扬，主因是欧元兑澳元和纽元的需求旺盛。然而，日元需求旺盛，欧元兑日元下滑至129.75。 普遍的避险情绪刺激了瑞郎的需求。美元兑瑞郎下跌至0.9223（上周四曾测试0.9400），欧元兑瑞郎触及1.23145；趋势势头扁平化。在其他地方，印度卢比兑美元扩大了跌幅，创下新的记录低点63.7750，而多数新兴市场货币兑美元在周三美联储会议纪要之前有所下滑。 今天的经济日历由以下数据组成：德国7月PPI月率和年率、瑞典第二季度员工总数年率和工业产能、挪威第二季度GDP季率、欧元区6月建筑支出月率和年率、加拿大6月批发销售月率和美国7月芝加哥联储全国活动指数。 The Asian equity and bond markets sold-off overnight; gold and oil took a dive. On the currency markets, the Aussie and the Kiwi were the biggest losers against USD post-RBA & RBNZ. The Reserve Bank of Australia released August 6th policy meeting minutes, reiterating that the AUD is still over-valued, the inflation is expected to remain in target, and the growth should stay modest until the pick-up. Minutes showed no explicit intention for further rate cut, yet members agreed to keep the door ajar to option for more easing. In New Zealand, RBNZ survey showed that the inflation expectations increased for the first time in two years (from 1.52% to 1.9% in one year horizon & from 2.06% to 2.36% in two years). AUDUSD traded down to 0.9044 as the dovish RBA expectations were confirmed by the minutes. Light bids are seen at 0.9050 with stops building below. The bias is clearly on the downside. On the other hand, NZDUSD slumped to 0.7974 post-RBA and steadied. Higher inflation expectations helped to cap the downside. Bids are building at 0.7950, while offers are seen below 0.7950 & 0.7935. USDJPY and JPY crosses were offered in Tokyo. Early in the session, USDJPY advanced to 97.86 on Gotobi demand. Offers limited the topside below the 21-dayMA (97.99) and the pair eased to 0.9718 as the markets moved risk-off. First set of bids trail above 97.00. In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected plans to introduce Euro bonds and a common debt redemption fund ahead of the September 22th elections, while Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem said that Netherlands won’t try to maintain its deficit within the limits fixed by the EU. Euro crosses were mainly bid in Asia, lifted by decent demand versus the Aussie and the Kiwi. EURJPY however traded down to 129.75 on hefty JPY demand. The general risk-off boosted demand in the Swiss franc. USDCHF retreated to 0.9223 (after having tested 0.9400 on Thursday last week), EURCHF hit 1.23145; the trend momentum flattened. Else, Indian Rupee extended losses to new record low of 63.7750 per dollar, while a clear majority of emerging market currencies lost ground against the US dollar ahead of the Fed minutes due on Wednesday. Today, the economic calendar consists of German July PPI m/m & y/y, Sweden 2Q Total Number of Employees y/y & Industry Capacity, Norway 2Q GDP q&q, Euro-Zone June Construction Output m/m & y/y, Canada June Wholesale Trade Sales m/m and US July Chicago Fed National Activity Index. |
