Swissquote Bank：新兴市场货币下滑，瑞郎上扬
隔夜，外汇市场大幅波动，市场情绪仍然混合，直至今天晚些时候释放FOMC会议纪要。投资者正在调整头寸，不稳定性和揣测性加剧，新兴市场货币依然大量外流。印尼盾再次大幅下降2.10％，其次是泰国泰铢（-0.50％）、印度卢比（-0.36％）、匈牙利福林（-0.18％）和土耳其里拉（-0.10％）。中国人民银行将人民币兑美元汇率中间价定于6.1675（上次接近6.1246），而印度储备银行计划购买长期政府债券，以缓解流动性。 日本央行行长黑田东彦表示，如果物价跟市场预期一样毫无改善迹象，他将会毫不犹豫地调整政策，引发美元兑日元在隔夜大幅上扬。此外，昨日多次尝试清理支撑位97.00均以失败告终，这种情况也有助于该货币对恢复至97.68。后来，日本警告称将最新福岛核电站辐射的严重等级上调至3级，限制了该货币对上扬的风险偏好情绪。卖盘稳固地位于97.90（21日移动均线）和98.00之前；而FOMC会议纪要应有助于向上突破97.00-98.50区间。 在澳大利亚，澳元延续澳洲联储会议纪要释放后的跌势。澳元兑美元触及0.9018，交易偏见显然是下行。澳元兑日元因福岛事件成为首个遭遇抛售的货币对，有趣的是，该货币对随后便缩减了跌幅（这意味着无论核事故的严重性如何，市场仍是日元买家）。 与十国集团货币不同的是，欧元兑美元波动性较小，维持1.3407-27窄幅震荡。英镑兑美元的上扬空间限于布林带上轨道线（1.5697）。FOMC会议纪要应该会在晚些时候引发欧元和英镑波动。风险乘双向性。 瑞郎整合收益。美元兑瑞郎在纽约市场下滑至0.9147，而欧元兑瑞郎下滑至1.22858。投资者仍愿意在1.2300上方买进，但目前尚无新的势头可以扭转瑞郎的涨势。 今天的主要重点是美国将发布7月30日-31日FOMC会议纪要。由于有关美联储削减的揣测不断加剧，该会议纪要应该会就美联储官员过去两周的矛盾性意见提供一些清晰的意见。此外，经济数据包括瑞士7月M3货币供应年率、英国7月公共部门收支短差（PSNCR）、英国7月除金融行业介入支出之外的公共部门债务净借款、英国7月除英国皇家邮政支出之外的公共部门债务净借款、APF和英国7月公共部门借款、英国8月CBI趋势订单总额与销售价格、美国8月13日MBA抵押贷款申请和美国7月成屋销售月率。 EM Currencies Sold, Swiss Franc in Demand The overnight trading session recorded decent volatility, the sentiment remains mixed ahead of the FOMC minutes to be released later in the day. Traders are adjusting positions and as the uncertainty and speculations gather pace, the emerging market currencies are still subject to heavy outflows. The Indonesian Rupiah lost another 2.10%, followed by Thai Baht (-0.50%), Indian Rupee (-0.36%), Hungarian Forint (-0.18%) and Turkish lira (-0.10%). PBOC set the Yuan mid-point at 6.1675 (last close 6.1246), while the RBI plans to buy long-term government bonds to ease liquidity. USDJPY was better bid overnight as the BoJ Governor Kuroda said he would not hesitate to adjust policy if the prices do not improve in line with expectations. Yesterday’s failed attempts to clean the support at 97.00 also helped the pair to recover to 97.68. Later, the warnings on the latest Fukushima leaks raising the severity of the radiation incident to level 3 capped the topside appetite. Offers are solid at 97.90 (21-dayMA) & 98.00; FOMC minutes should help to break beyond the 97.00/98.50 range. In Australia, the Aussie extended post-RBA losses. AUDUSD hit 0.9018 and the bias is clearly on the downside. AUDJPY was first sold on Fukushima incident, and then interestingly paired losses (meaning that markets remained JPY-buyers regardless the seriousness of the nuclear incident). Unlike its G10 peers, EURUSD traded with subdued volatility within 1.3407/27 range. GBPUSD bulls were capped by the upper-BB (1.5697). The FOMC minutes should trigger volatility in euro & sterling markets later in the session. Risk is two-sided. The Swiss franc consolidated gains. USDCHF eased to 0.9147 in New York session, EURCHF to 1.22858. Traders are still willing to buy above 1.2300 yet the momentum freshly reversed to CHF-positive. Today, the main focus is on FOMC minutes from July 30-31st to be released in US. As the speculations on Fed tapering gather pace, the minutes should provide some clarity on contradictory comments from Fed officials over the past weeks. Besides, the economic data consists of Swiss July Money Supply M3 y/y, UK July Public Finances (PSNCR), UK July PSNB ex Intervention, ex Royal Mail, APF & UK July Public Sector Borrowings, UK August CBI Trends Total Orders & Selling Prices, US August 13th MBA Mortgage Applications and US July Existing Home Sales m/m. |
