Swissquote Bank：美元因地缘政治担忧走强
新兴市场再次下跌。叙利亚的地缘政治担忧仍在继续，而美国的盟国准备对该国进行可能的干预。印度卢比和土耳其里拉继续创下各自的历史新低；包括日元和瑞郎在内的所有十国集团货币兑美元均有所回落。全球股市下滑：日经225指数下跌1.51％，雅加达综合指数下滑2.81％，而菲律宾SE IDX指数再次下跌4.86％。 尽管日元在早盘中的需求不错，但美元兑日元和日元交叉盘还是被投标买入。美元兑日元先是下滑至96.82，随后因期权买盘、机构性需求和进口商需求而恢复至97.00以上。持续的地缘政治担忧让日元进一步走强，市场似乎要逢高卖出日元交叉盘。 在十国集团货币当中，澳元和纽元再次成为兑美元的两大最大输家。澳元兑美元现在测试0.8900，带有稳定的下行偏见。期权卖盘在89.00下方建立，其中绝大多数在本周五到期，而0.8850（及以下）的大量成熟卖盘见于下周一。纽元兑美元触及0.7748，为8月5日以来的最低水平。风险规避情绪很可能会进一步拖累澳元及纽元交叉盘。 欧元兑美元仍然在21日移动均线上方得到良好支撑，并在纽约市场尝试靠近1.3400。来自亚洲主权级投资者的稳定卖盘依然位于1.3400-20区域，而新兴市场需求明显支持单一货币。自本周一以来，欧元兑绝大多数新兴市场货币一直在扩大涨幅（巴西雷亚尔除外）；表现最差的是印度卢比（跌幅达6.03％），其次是印尼盾（跌幅达4.20%）、土耳其里拉（跌幅达2.79％）和南非兰特（跌幅达1.35％）。 在英国，因卡尼今日将发表其作为英国央行行长以来的首次公开讲话，英镑兑美元今日开盘下行。由于市场预计卡尼会继续保持温和语调，所以市场下注下行，但明显有多数人士质疑卡尼的“前瞻性指导会因通道而遭遇淘汰”的框架的有效性。英镑兑美元回落至1.5482，随后在纽约市场反弹至1.5556（以前的支撑位，现已转变为阻力位）。马克 - 卡尼将于今日格林尼治标准时间12:45发表讲话。 今日即将释放的经济数据包括：瑞士7月UBS消费指标、德国7月进口物价指数月率和年率、德国9月GFK消费者信心指数、瑞典8月消费者信心指数与制造业信心指数、意大利6月零售销售月率和年率、欧元区7月M3货币供应量年率和三个月平均值、英国8月CPI报告、美国8月23日MBA抵押贷款申请、加拿大6月平均每周收入年率以及美国7月成屋待完成销售月率和年率。 USD Strengthens on Geopolitical Concerns Another day, another session of losses for the emerging markets. The geopolitical concerns in Syria continues, while US allies prepare for a possible intervention in the country. The Indian Rupee and the Turkish Lira advanced to fresh historical lows; all G10 peers retreated against USD including JPY and CHF. The global stock markets recorded negative performances: Nikkei 225 lost 1.51%, Jakarta’s Composite wrote-off 2.81%, while Philippine’s SE IDX fell another 4.86%. USDJPY and JPY crosses were better bid despite JPY demand at early hours in Tokyo. USDJPY spiked down to 96.82, before recovering above 97.00 on option bids, institutional and importer demand. The ongoing geopolitical jittering suggests further strength in JPY; markets are seemingly set to sell the rallies on JPY crosses. Among G10 currencies, AUD and NZD were once again the biggest losers against US dollar. AUDUSD now tests 0.8900 with a solid bias on the downside. Option offers are building below 89.00 with maturities on Friday, while large expiries at 0.8850 (and below) are seen on Monday. NZDUSD hit 0.7748, lowest since August 5th. The risk-off sentiment is likely to weigh further on AUD & NZD crosses. EURUSD remained well supported above the 21-dayMA curve and made a fresh attempt to 1.3400 in New York. Solid offers from Asian sovereign names are still persistent at 1.3400/20 area, while emerging market demand is clearly giving support to the single currency. Euro extended gains against the majority of EM currencies since Monday (except BRL); the worst performers being the Indian Rupee (-6.03%) followed by IDR (-4.20%), TRY (-2.79%) and ZAR (-1.35%). In UK, GBPUSD opened the day on the downside ahead of Carney’s first speech as BoE Governor in Nottingham today. Markets bet on the downside, as Mr. Carney is expected to keep the dovish tone yet a clear majority voice doubt on Carney’s “forward guidance with inflation knock-out” framework’s effectiveness. GBPUSD retreated to 1.5482 before rebounding to 1.5556 in New York (support turned resistance). Mark Carney will speak at 12:45 GMT. The economic releases are Swiss July UBS Consumption Indicator, German July Import Price Index m/m & y/y, German September GfK Consumer Confidence, Swedish August Consumer & Manufacturing Confidence, Italian June Retail Sales m/m & y/y, Euro-Zone July M3 Money Supply y/y & 3-month Average, UK August CPI Reported Sales, US August 23th MBA Mortgage Applications, Canadian June Average Weekly Earnings y/y, US July Pending Home Sales m/m & y/y. |
