市场对以美国为首西方国家将军事打击叙利亚的担忧已抵消了脆弱的全球经济复苏迹象，外汇市场安静开始本交易周。然而，亚洲区域股票指数开盘大涨。强劲的中国经济数据提振上证综指上涨3.23%，东京获2020年夏季奥运会举办权的消息刺激日经指数攀升2.48%。欧元兑美元在1.3160和13180之间窄幅震荡。周末成功获得2020年夏季奥运会主办权所产生的积极情绪以及即将释放的GDP修正值所提升的情绪使美元兑日元在早盘中飙升至100.11。
较为强劲的中国贸易数据和艾伯特获得选举胜利的消息让澳元兑美元在0.9200上方找到了买家。我们将继续对澳元持建设性意见，但由于选举已经结束，我们会视商业信心反弹为消费者信心在最近几周已大幅上升的迹象。
上周末，中国公布了强于预期的贸易平衡数据，8月盈余值已增加至285.2亿澳元，创2012年12月以来的最高水平。出口额增长7.2％，高于预期的5.5％。令人鼓舞的是，中国8月消费者价格同比上涨2.6％，但低于前值2.7％。该稳定数据表明中国经济在第三季度会进一步增长。
市场仍在争论较弱但还过得去的美国8月非农就业报告及其对美联储政策的影响。市场不可能挑出一个更加平衡的数据，非农就业数据已经引起削减或不削减的辩论。在我们看来，该红色数据与经济复苏一致，我们预计美联储会从9月开始逐渐削减购债。虽然这一恰当的数据还不足以让人信服，但稳定的好转经济数据流应该会鼓励美联储采取温和的削减措施，削减幅度约为100亿美元。另外，据华盛顿邮报的报道，美国总统奥巴马正考虑提名美国财政部高级官员布雷纳德填补美国联邦储备理事会的空缺职位。
投资者将会继续关注与叙利亚有关的地缘政治事件，同时关注瑞士零售销售数据和加拿大建筑许可等二级数据。
The forex markets had a quiet start to the trading week as the fragile signs of a global economic recovery were offset by concerns of a U.S.-led military strike on Syria. However, Asian’s regional equity indices were off to a roaring start. Shanghai was up 3.23% stronger than expected Chinese economic data while Nikkei climbed 2.48% as Tokyo secured its bid to host the 2020 Summer Olympics. EURUSD traded in a tight sideways range between 1.3160 and 13180. USDJPY spiked to 100.11 early in the session on optimism generated by the weekend Olympic success and upward GDP’s revision enhancement sentiment. AUDUSD found buyers above the 0.9200 level on the stronger China trade data and Tony Abbott’s election victory. We remain constructive on the AUD. With the election drama out of the way, we could see a bounce in business confidence as consumer confidence has risen sharply over recent weeks.
Over the weekend, China reported a stronger than expected trade balance as surplus rose to $28.52bn in August, the highest level since December 2012. Exports rose 7.2% above the expected estimation of 5.5%. Encouragingly, China’s consumer prices rose 2.6% y/y in August matching expectations but lower than prior reading of 2.7%. This solid reading points to further upside for Q3 growth.
Markets are still debating the weaker yet still decent US August employment report and effect on Feds policy. Markets could not have picked a more balanced read which have just fueled the go or no go debate. From our view, this read is consistent to an economic recovery and we expect the Fed to begin tapering of asset purchases from September. While the right read was less than convincing, the steady stream of improving economic data should encourage the Fed to take a modest step of $10bn asset purchase reduction. On a side note, according to the Washington Post, U.S. President Obama is considering naming Lael Brainard, a senior U.S. Treasury Department official to fill the soon to be vacant Federal Reserve Post.
Traders will be keeping one eye on geopolitical event relating to Syria and the other on second tier data in Swiss Retail Sales and Canadian Building Permits.
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