瑞讯银行Swissquote：利好日本CPI助欧元兑日元创历史新高
日本11月CPI从10月的持平转为上扬。东京物价通胀率意外上扬（11月CPI年率增长0.9％，前值增长0.7％），制造业PMI扩张速度创7年来最快（11月升至55.1，前值为54.2）。日本央行行长黑田东彦表示，日本正在朝2%的通胀目标靠近，经济扩张速度快于预期，所以目前并无通过政策来货币化债务的相关计划。 日元交叉盘依然获得不错的买入价。美元兑日元触及102.61，之后回落至102.20（纽约市场的支撑位）。期权障碍依然为102.60/80/95以及103.00。交易偏见明显是上行。与美元兑日元交易形态相似的是，欧元兑日元已上扬至新高139.71。突破关键阻力位139.22（2009年的最高价，也是我们之前的目标价）引发大量止损反弹。随着看涨势头的加强，我们已将接下来的目标价转移至140.96/141.00（2008-2012年下跌期间之38.2％的斐波拉契水平）。 标准普尔评级机构隔夜修订了欧盟成员国的主权信用评级，将西班牙评级从稳定下调至负面，将塞浦路斯评级从B-下调至CCC +，将荷兰评级从AAA下调至AA +。欧元兑美元隔夜反弹至1.3622。市场大量买进欧元兑日元和欧元兑澳元，对欧元兑美元的反弹起了帮助作用。期权买入价可尾随至1.3600以上，而止损价在1.3575下方建立。鉴于趋势和势头指标稳固看涨，我们继续看好欧元兑美元直至周末。 在纽约市场和悉尼市场中，澳元的波动性一直很高。澳元熊市势头加强。澳元兑美元回吐了澳大利亚资本支出数据释放后所赢得的收益，在早盘中从0.9150回落至0.9056。我们将继续关注0.9000；卖出价见于0.9090-0.9100以及0.9150以下区域。澳元兑纽元已突破阻力位1.1200，一举上扬至1.1227。我们认为底价1.1115已经形成，预计会有更深修正。买入价见于1.1250以上。 英镑兑美元反弹至1.6374（仅低于年内高位1.6381几个点）；在上行路上突破1.6350触发沉重止损。该货币对仍受布林带上轨道线（1.6334）的良好支撑，但增速加快的英国11月Nationwide房价指数（年率上升6.5%，预期上升6.2%，前值上升5.8%）在欧洲市场开盘后拖累英镑。由于英国央行行长卡尼迈出了重要一步，宣布要稀释信贷刺激计划——这是自2007年以来第一次退出刺激政策——以避免英国出现潜在的房地产泡沫，英镑兑美元的下行空间有限。 本周五，市场重点关注：英国11月全国房屋价格月率和年率、德国10月零售销售月率和年率、法国和意大利10月PPI月率和年率、法国10月消费者支出月率和年率、瑞士11月KOF领先指标、瑞典第三季度GDP（初步值）季率和年率、意大利10月失业率（初步值）、意大利第三季度失业率、挪威11月失业率、英国10月消费者信贷净额、英国10月房屋抵押贷款净额、英国10月抵押贷款许可、英国10月M4货币供应月率和年率、意大利11月CPI（初步值）月率和年率、欧元区10月失业率、欧元区11月CPI预估值年率以及加拿大第三季度GDP年化后的月率和年率等数据。 The Japanese CPI readings were flat-to-positive in Oct/Nov data. The price inflation in Tokyo surprised on the upside (Nov CPI y/y +0.9% vs. +0.7% prev), the PMI manufacturing showed the fastest expansion in more than 7 years (55.1 in November vs. 54.2 prev). BoJ Governor Kuroda said to approach 2% inflation target as economy expands above expectations, that there are no plans to monetize debt via policy. JPY crosses remained well bid. USDJPY hit 102.61 then eased to 102.20 (NY support). Option barriers remain at 102.60/80/95 and 103.00. The bias is clearly on the upside. On a similar pattern, EURJPY advanced to fresh high of 139.71. The break of 139.22 key resistance (2009 high, our former target) triggered a decent stop rally. As bullish momentum strengthens, we shift our next target to 140.96/141.00 (Fibonacci 38.2% on 2008/2012 drop). The S&P revised EU members’ ratings overnight. Spain was revised up to stable from negative, Cyprus upgraded to B- from CCC+, while Netherlands lost its AAA rating (to AA+). EURUSD rallied to 1.3622 overnight. Heavy demand in EURJPY and EURAUD helped. Option bids trail above 1.3600, while stops are building below 1.3575. With trend and momentum indicators solidly positive, we keep our bullish view in EURUSD before the weekend. The Aussie traded through a highly volatile session through NY and Sydney. AUD-bears gained momentum. AUDUSD wrote-off post-CAPEX gains and eased from 0.9150 to 0.9056 earlier in the session. We keep our eyes set at 0.9000; offers are seen at 0.9090/0.9100 and pre-0.9150. AUDNZD cleared resistance at 1.1200, advanced to 1.1227. We suspect the formation of a bottom at 1.1115, deeper upside correction is expected. Bids are seen above 1.1250. GBPUSD rallied to 1.6374 (couple of pips below the year-high of 1.6381); break of 1.6350 triggered heavy stops on the upside. The pair remained well bid above the upper-Bollinger band (1.6334) yet the faster-than-growing nationwide house prices (6.5% y/y vs. 6.2% exp. & 5.8% last) weighed on the Cable as Europe walked in. The downside should remain limited as BoE Governor Carney took an important step announcing the dilution of credit-boosting program - which is the first stimulus withdrawal since 2007 - to prevent a potential housing bubble in UK. This Friday, the focus is on UK November Nationwide House Prices m/m & y/y, German October Retail Sales m/m & y/y, French and Italian October PPI m/m & y/y, French October Consumer Spending m/m & y/y, Swiss November KOF Leading Indicator, Swedish 3Q (Prelim) GDP q/q & y/y, Italian October (Prelim) & 3Q Unemployment Rate, Norwegian November Unemployment Rate, UK October Net Consumer Credit, Net Lending Securities on Dwellings, Mortgage Approvals and M4 Money Supply m/m & y/y, Italian November (Prelim) CPI m/m & y/y, Euro-Zone October Unemployment Rate and November CPI Estimate y/y and finally Canadian 3Q GDP Annualized, m/m & y/y. |
