瑞讯银行Swissquote：中国服务业PMI令人失望，日元强势
汇丰/ Markit公布的数据显示，中国12月服务业PMI从52.5回落至50.9，令亚洲股市本周开盘下降。沉重的市场情绪令日经指数下滑2.35%，恒生指数回落0.44%，上证综指更是下跌近2.0%。美国十年期国债收益率空开于3.0097%，之后在亚洲市场跌破3.0%。美元指数触及80.91，创一个月以来的新高。 欧元兑美元在亚洲市场于1.3600（近一个月内的低价）下方整合亏损。其走势和势头指标目前均稳固看跌，暗示未来将会进一步修正。抛售压力在1.3540-50区域以下建立。欧元兑日元在东京市场从142.66下滑至141.50。 突破105.00以失败告终后，美元兑日元大幅下滑至104.15，日经股票亦是暴跌。12日和26日MACD指标由正转负。104.00上方的买家继续限制下行空间。部分支撑位应该会出现于104.00-09区域（21日移动均线），一旦突破，预计美元兑日元应该会进一步下滑。期权投注偏向消极；卖出价见于105.00-50以上，然后是106.00。 在澳大利亚，澳元风险偏好减弱，澳元兑美元未能清除阻力位0.9000。短期情绪仍然乐观，而中国的疲软服务业PMI应该会限制上行反弹空间。到目前为止，买家于21日移动均线（0.8942）上方跳入，下行空间较为安全。虽然澳元实力脆弱，但澳元兑美元仍试图测试0.9000；期权障碍见于该水平。澳元兑纽元于1.0900-20（下行通道上行）下方承受下行压力。更多阻力位见于1.1000以上。 英镑以悲观情绪开始本周。英镑兑美元加速下滑，已跌破21日移动均线（1.6399）。技术指标表明该货币对或将进行更深的修正，或跌破1.6400。应该会生效的首个支撑位水平是1.6317（2013年11月至2014年1月反弹期间之38.2%的斐波拉契水平），而少量止损位见于1.6300-1.6280以下。 本周一，欧元区、英国以及美国即将释放的12月服务业PMI数据将成为重点数据。交易者也将重点关注英国12月官方储备变化、德国12月CPI（预览值）月率和年率、加拿大11月工业生产以及原材料价格指数月率、美国12月ISM非制造业综合指数以及美国11月工程订单等数据。 The Asian equities started the week in red as the Chinese services PMI retreated from 52.5 to 50.9 in December according to HSBC/Markit index. The Nikkei 225 lost 2.35%, Hang Seng retreated 0.44% while Shanghai’s Composite traded below 2.0% loss on heavy sentiment. The US 10-year yields gap-opened at 3.0097% and retreated below 3.0% through Asian trading. DXY index hit 80.91 – a fresh one-month-high. EURUSD consolidated losses below 1.3600 – a month low - in Asia. Trend and momentum indicators are now solidly bearish signaling deeper correction moving forward. The selling pressure is building below 1.3540/50 area. EURJPY sold-off from 142.66 to 141.50 in Tokyo. After failure to break above 105.00, USDJPY took a dive to 104.15 alongside with the Nikkei stocks. The MACD 12, 26 day indicator turned negative. Buyers above 104.00 kept the downside limited. Some support should show up at 104.00/09 (21-dma), if broken further downside should be expected in USDJPY. Option bets are skewed to negative; offers are seen pre-105.00/50 then 106.00. In Australia, the Aussie-appetite weakened amid AUDUSD failed to clear resistance at 0.9000. While the short-term sentiment remains positive, the weak PMI data out of China should limit the upside rallies. Buyers jumped in above 21-dma (0.8942) keeping the downside safe so far. The strength in AUD is fragile, although AUDUSD is tempted to test 0.9000; option barriers are seen at this level. AUDNZD is pressured on the downside below 1.0900/20 (downtrend channel top). More resistance is seen pre-1.1000. The Cable started the week downbeat. GBPUSD sell-off accelerated as the 21-dma (1.6399) was broken on the downside. Technical indicators warn of deeper correction for a close below 1.6400. First level of support should come into play at 1.6317 (fibo 38.2% on Nov 13’ – Jan 14’ rally), while light stops are seen below 1.6300/1.6280. This Monday, the December PMI services will be the key data to be released across the Euro-Zone, UK and US. Traders will also watch UK December Official Reserve Changes, German December (Prelim) CPI m/m & y/y, Canadian November Industrial Product and Raw Materials Price Index m/m, US December ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite and US November Factory Orders. |
