瑞讯银行Swissquote：澳元延续疲软态势，美元需求旺盛
隔夜市场上的主导力量是美元强势；美元兑其所有十国集团对手货币以及大多数新兴市场货币均有所上扬；美国十年期政府债券收益率跌破2.97%。市场认为新兴亚洲货币走软的主要催化剂是：中国经济增长令人担忧，中国政府应该会加强对借贷的控制。然而，中国的7天回购利率均回落至12月现金紧缩之前的水平（4.2730%），对中国而言这是一个非常利好的消息。 日本12月货币基础量的年率从11月的52.5%下降至46.6%，致使日元交叉盘在东京市场涨跌互现。美元兑日元在不到50个点的区间内（104.17-62）交投，上行空间受制于表现不佳的日经股市（下滑0.59%）。期权障碍见于104.70/105.00/50和106.00，而更强劲的看跌MACD指标暗示该货币对有可能会进一步向下修正。从技术层面上来看，21日移动均线自11月8日以来一直提供了有力的支撑；如能突破，应该会打开通往103.35-50（2013年10月至11月反弹期间之23.6%的斐波拉契水平，风险期权水平）的道路。 澳大利亚11月贸易赤字从3.58亿澳元改善至1.18亿澳元，但澳元继续全面走软。澳元兑美元回落至0.8912，下行途中突破了21日移动均线（0.8933）。少量买入价见于该水平之上，而止损盘位于0.8900（今日有大型期权卖出价即将到期）以下。在尝试清除支撑位1.0800的过程中，澳元兑纽元最终下滑至1.0782。 欧元兑美元隔夜维持窄幅震荡（1.3611-36）。虽然熊市势头加剧，但亚洲投资者仍在1.3610（50日移动均线）上方买入欧元兑美元。定于今天上午释放的12月CPI年率将成为周四欧洲央行会议之前的主要数据。尽管11月曾下调过主要再融资利率，但市场预计CPI年率已从0.9%回落至0.8%。如CPI年率意外下滑，则很可能会使欧洲央行的温和态度重新流向，继而施压欧元。而在另一方面，由于通胀率较低，较高的实际利率会使欧元多头头寸在中期内完好无损。 英镑昨日未能延续1.6433以上的涨势。走势和势头指标均小幅看跌，而该货币对在下行路上测试30日布林带中轨道线。 今日的数据焦点包括：德国11月销售月率和年率、瑞典12月服务业PMI、法国12月消费者信心指数、德国12月失业率、欧元区11月PPI月率和年率、欧元区12月CPI预估值年率和核心CPI年率、加拿大11月国际商品贸易以及美国11月贸易平衡等数据。 The overnight session was dominated by USD strength; the US dollar gained against all of its G10 counterparts and the majority of EM currencies; the US 10-year government yields traded below 2.97%. An important catalyst of weaker emerging Asian currencies is believed to be the concerns on Chinese growth as government should harden controls on lending. China’s 7-day repo rates are however pulled back to levels (4.2730%) before December cash crunch – which is quite good news for China today. JPY crosses were mixed in Tokyo as the year-on-year monetary base declined from 52.5% to 46.6% in December. USDJPY traded in less than 50 pip range (104.17/62), the upside being capped by poor performance in Nikkei stocks (-0.59%). Option barriers are seen at 104.70/105.00/50 & 106.00, while stronger bearish MACD signals possibility for deeper downside correction. Technically, the 21-dma has been a strong support since November 8th; if broken should open the way down to 103.35/50 (fibo 23.6% on Oct-Nov 2013 rally, optionality) levels. The Aussie continued to weaken broadly although the November trade deficit improved from AUD -358M to AUD -118M. AUDUSD retreated to 0.8912, crossing the 21-dma (0.8933) to the downside. Light bids are seen above this level, while stops are building below 0.8900 (with large option offers expiring today). AUDNZD spiked down to 1.0782 in attempt to clear support at 1.0800. EURUSD traded in the tight range of 1.3611/36 overnight. While the bearish momentum gains pace, the Asian names remain bid above the 1.3610 (50-dma). Due in the morning, the year-on-year CPI estimate in December will be the key data before ECB meeting on Thursday. The CPI y/y is expected to have retreated from 0.9% to 0.8% despite the main refi rate cut in November. A negative surprise is likely to revive ECB-doves, thus to weigh on EUR. While on the other hand, higher real interest rates due to lower inflation keep the long EUR-positions intact in the mid-run. The Cable failed to extend gains above 1.6433 yesterday. Trend and momentum indicators are marginally bearish, while the pair tests the 30-day mid Bollinger band on the downside. Today, the data focus is on German November Sales m/m & y/y, Swedish December PMI Services, French December Consumer Confidence, German December Unemployment, Euro-Zone November PPI m/m & y/y, Euro-Zone December CPI Estimate y/y & CPI Core y/y, Canadian November International Merchandise Trade and US November Trade Balance. |
