03/03/14 @ 08:38 GMT by Angus Campbell, Senior Analyst
http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20140303/bei-diyuanzhengzhi-baowei-yizhou
The first week of a new month brings with it a large amount of data to absorb with manufacturing PMIs, unemployment figures and central bank interest rate decisions from Europe. The ECB meeting is being built up s one of the major risk events of the week as no action could see the euro build on the already unexpected strength it’s established in the past few months although the 1.3800 level remains a significant hurdle that looks to have formed a triple top. The week climaxes with its usual nonfarm payroll figure from the US which once again will be closely watched to see if the recent weakness in economic data from across the pond is just a weather phenomenon or something more structural.
This morning however is a different kettle of fish as geopolitical tensions over Ukraine between Russia and the West mount and safe haven assets have been seeing a great deal of interest overnight. The Yen has pushed the dollar to a new three week low not far off the 101.00 level and is not too far off its 200 day moving average which is seen around 100.50. Gold has also benefitted from the uncertainty hitting 1348, a new four month high, so any bulls with a renewed sense of optimism towards the precious metal could have the 1360 in their sights. Geopolitical concerns have a habit of distorting the markets and in this case they could continue to do so for as long as the Ukraine issue remains in the headlines.
这个月第一周有大量的数据发布，比如制造业PMI，失业数据还有欧洲的央行利率决议。欧洲央行的会议正在成为这一周主要风险之一，因为至今还没有任何变化显示出欧元会在过去几个月未曾料到的强势基础上更上一层楼，尽管1.3800 这个水平仍然是一个显著的阻碍，而且似乎形成了一个三顶的样子。这一周的高潮就是美国的非农就业数据。如果美国和英国的经济数据最近出现疲软是因为天气或者结构上的问题，那么美国的非农就业数据再次得到密切关注。
今天上午情况又有所变化，因为乌克兰，俄罗斯和西方国家之间的地缘政治关系开始紧张，因此当天避险资产开始引起人们很大的兴趣。日元将美元推倒三周以来的低点，离开100.50 不远了，而且离101.00 附近的两百天移动均线也不远。黄金也从这种不确定性中获利，达到1348，这是四个月以来的新高点，因此任何再次变得乐观的贵金属多头可以仰望1360 这个水平。地缘政治经常会扰乱市场，而这次只要乌克兰问题悬而不决，市场会一直受到干扰。
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