We are seeing both the euro and Aussie weaker at the start of the European session as FX markets react to the latest pronouncements from central banks and officials. For the euro, Governing Council member Mersch was the latest to lead markets into expecting policy action at the June meeting and this has added to the negative backdrop to the single currency. But the question is whether policy action from the ECB is going to have a sustained effect on the euro, because the options available to them are likely to be of limited impact. The alternative view of the euro is that portfolio flows are what matter more, investors being attracted to European bond and equities. The rally in peripheral bond markets so far this year has been a factor in keeping the single currency firm, which is why the latest correction, which has seen Italian 10 year yields move up from 2.75% to 3.15% (with similar moves in other markets) is worth keeping a close eye on.
For today, inflation data in the UK takes centre stage. The market expects a move up to 1.7% (from 1.6%), although there is some risk that we could see a firmer number would give some added support to sterling. The issue is whether the reasons the Bank expects inflation to remain relatively well behaved are going to remain valid. Last week there was a strong focus on the level of slack in the economy keeping inflation in check, so think of unused factories, unemployed labour, but this is a very difficult thing to measure and the Bank has been wrong before on this in the early part of the financial crisis (thinking that this would pull inflation lower). We have the MPC minutes tomorrow and it could well be the case that we start to see more dissent among the committee in the coming months. Finally, note that the Aussie is weaker on the back of the latest RBA minutes, which suggest the central bank is looking for slower growth on the back of the recently announced fiscal tightening.
我们发现欧元和澳元在欧洲开盘时变得疲软，因为外汇市场对于最近众多央行和官员们的最近的发言有所反应。对于欧元来说，监理委员会成员Mersch 是最新一个劝说市场相信六月会议将有政策方面的行动的人。不过问题是欧洲央行的政策行动能否对欧元造成持续性的效果，因为他们现在可以有的选项其实影响很有限。对于欧元还有另一种看法，就是投资组合现金流是更加重要的问题，因为投资者被欧洲的债券和股票所吸引。今年到目前为止外围债券市场的反弹是保证欧元坚挺的一个因素，也是目前数据修正值得观察的一个原因，比如意大利十年债券收益从2.75% 上升到了3.15%（其他市场也有类似变动）。
今天，英国的通胀数据走上了前台，市场预计会（从1.6%）上升到1.7%，不过英镑要靠好的数据从而得到进一步支撑的话还是有一定风险的。而问题就在于，英格兰银行期待通胀能维持相对稳定的那些理由能否继续有效。上一周大家都在关注经济方面出现松懈的程度，这对通胀是一个考验，因此，考虑一下工厂，失业劳动力吧，这些都是很难测算的东西；而金融危机初期，英格兰银行在这些方面一直都是错的（认为这种情况会拉低通胀）。明天会有货币政策委员会（MPC）的会议纪要，未来几个月内委员会内部也许会出现更多分歧。最后，要注意澳元由于最近澳洲联储的会议内容而疲软，这意味着由于最近宣布的财政紧缩政策，澳洲央行预期增长会放缓。
英国CPI 上升至1.8%
The latest inflation numbers showing a rise to 1.8% (from 1.6%), with the market expecting 1.7%. Also of note is the fact that core inflation has moved up from 1.6% to 2.0%. This excludes more volatile items, such as food and energy. The average for the past 5 years has been 2.4%, but this has been a time of notably higher inflation, so not much comfort should be taken from this. The issue with inflation is that the Bank is relying on the amount of slack in the economy to act as a restraining force. This was also the case in the early part of the financial crisis, but this downward pressure failed to materialise and offset the inflationary forces elsewhere that took headline inflation to above 5% in 2011. There are real risks that the Bank is wrong-footed again, given that measuring spare capacity is hard at the best of times and knowing how it will develop in the future and impact inflation is even harder. Sterling was firmer ahead of the numbers, rising to above 1.6850 on cable, but has subsequently pulled back on the release, back towards European opening levels of 1.6820/25.
最新的通胀数据（从1.6%）上升到了1.8%，而市场的预期是1.7%。同时要注意核心通胀数据从1.6% 变动到了2.0%。这个测算排除了波动因素，例如食品和能源。过去五年中的均值为2.4%，不过这一段时间的通胀都是显著走高的，因此没有太多可以让放心的感觉。通胀的问题就在于，英格兰银行想要让经济放缓成为一种限制性的力量，在金融危机初期他们也是如此做的。不过在2011 年的时候，这种下行压力没有能够成为现实，也没有对将整体通胀上升到 5% 之上的力量造成破坏。目前实在的风险就是，英格兰银行现在又错了，因为大多数时候测算闲置产能是很困难的，而要清楚地知道其未来如何发展并且如何影响通胀则更加困难。通胀数据发布前英镑走强，英镑美元上升到了1.6850 之上，不过数据发布后有被拉回，回到了欧洲盘开盘时的1.6820/25。
|网站首页|财经金融|银行|股票|基金|保险|期货|股评|港股|美股|外汇|债券|黄金|理财|信托|房产|汽车|
|