Creeping dollar strength has been the main theme of the week so far, with the dollar index (DXY) poised to move to levels last seen in 12thFebruary of this year. Indeed, only 6 of the past 20 sessions on this dollar metric have seen the dollar decline. Never forget that the euro weight is more than half of the index, so this has accounted for much of the weakness, but the Kiwi, and Swiss franc has suffered more vs. the US dollar over this time, so it’s not just a euro story. This morning, USDJPY catches the eye as it pushes a 1-month high, increasing the potential that it pushes out of the range that has dominated for the past near two months.
The other interesting moves are seen on AUDNZD, which has broken above the 1.10 level for the first time since mid-December and above the 200 day moving average mentioned yesterday. We’re also seeing EURJPY recover back towards 140.00 on the weaker tone to the yen and once again moving away from key moving average support currently at 138.50. FX volatility remains on the low side, but these movements suggest potential for some more interesting break-outs to occur. We can’t forget that the ECB meeting is looming ever large tomorrow with US jobs data on Friday. As such, markets will retain a sense of anticipation today ahead of these two risk events, but the overnight moves suggest more may be forced into the market to adjust positions as a result. Finally, note that the Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision today. The tone of the statement will likely be unchanged from last time, especially after the weaker GDP data last week. CAD continues to push towards the 1.10 level.
这一周到目前为止的主题就是不断爬升的美元强势，其中美元指数（DXY）作势要上升到今年二月十二日才出现过的水平。的确，从美元来看过去20 个交易期内只有六个是下跌的。不过我们永远不要忘记，欧元对美元指数的影响要占所有因素的一半以上，因此这也大概解释了疲软的原因。不过这段时期里新元，瑞士法郎针对美元遭受了很多苦难，因此这里面不单单是欧元在起作用。今天上午，美元日元吸引了大家的眼球，这个交叉盘上升到了一个月以来的高点，有可能跳出这个过去两个月以来一直占据的区域。
另一个有趣的变动就是澳元新元，这个交叉盘自从去年十二月中旬以来第一次突破到1.10 之上，在昨天提到的200 天移动均线之上。我们也发现欧元日元朝着140.00 这个水平在恢复，按照目前疲软的趋势，日元可能再次离开关键移动均线支撑点，也就是138.50 这个位置。外汇的波动仍然较低，不过目前这种变化意味着未来的变动会更加让人感兴趣。我们不要忘了明天欧洲央行的会议，还有周五的美国就业数据。因此，在这两个风险事件来临之前的今天，市场会保持一种期待的情绪，不过昨天的变动显示出，更多人可能被迫入市调整仓位。最后，要注意今天加拿大银行将宣布最新的利率决定。其声明的语气可能和上次相比没有太多变化，特别是在上周发布了GDP 数据之后。加元正继续朝着1.10 这个水平前进。
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