As we enter the last few days of July we can safely say that it’s been the dollar recovery that’s been one of the outliers of the month.The dollar index is up almost 2%,past June’s highs and closing in on the 2014 high and it’s the euro that’s felt the brunt of this dollar buying.Looking at a daily chart of the euro the technical picture doesn’t look all that promising as the uptrend that commenced exactly two year ago looks to be breaking down.Having said that some indicators are signalling EURUSD is oversold so it could be prone to a squeeze back upwards as the short trade for EURUSD is quite a crowded one now.Near term the key levels of resistance are seen at 1.3455 and 1.3485 with support seen at 1.3400.
七月只剩下最后几天了，我们可以安全地讲，美元的恢复和这个月没有沾边。美元指数上升了将近2%，不仅超过了6月的高点，并且在接近2014年的高点；而欧元则感受到了美元被买入而带来的痛苦。看着欧元的每日图表，这些技术图片看起来并不让人感到有希望，因为两年前开始的上升趋势正在下降。我们说过，一些技术指标显示出欧元美元出现过卖的情况，因此这个货币对可能会向上回弹，因为欧元美元的短期交易目前非常频繁。近期内关键阻力水平在1.3455和1.3485；支撑点在1.3400。
The week starts quietly in respect of economic data but builds into a crescendo in particular from the US as we see GDP data and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday,then nonfarm payrolls on Friday.For today at least we do see PMI services data from the US as well as pending home sales at 14.45 and 15.00 respectively London time.The PMI figures is due to show a decline from 61.0 to 59.8 and anything lower than this might see the EURUSD bear squeeze as mentioned above but the focus will be on the other key economic events of the week.
这一周的开始非常安静，因为没有什么经济数据发布，不过我们会渐入佳境；因为周三有美国的GDP数据和FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）的利率决定发布，而且周五还有非农就业数据。今天，我们至少还有美国的PMI服务业数据以及伦敦时间14点45和15点发不的成屋待完成销售数据。PMI这个数据可能会从61.0下降到59.8，如果比这个还低的话，欧元美元空头可能就会像上面提到的那样出现回弹。不过这一周焦点还是在其他关键经济事件上。
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