亚洲市场本周的开幕表现有涨有跌。强劲的季度短观指数推动日经225指数上涨1.3％，而台湾证交所加权指数和韩国首尔综合指数分别下跌0.3％和0.4％。在中国，6月制造业PMI进一步回落。汇丰制造业PMI下降至48.2（5月为49.2），上证综指缩减跌幅，而恒生指数休市。

　　在东京市场，因第二季度短观指数已从-8升至+4，美元兑日元和日元交叉盘获得更好的买进价。美元兑日元在99.18-54的窄幅区间内整合涨幅。欧美投资者与日本出口商一样，都选择在99.55之前大幅抛售日元。卖出价位于99.50至100.00，而止盈价在区间之上。澳元和纽元兑日元因空头回补稳步上扬。

　　在澳大利亚，6月AIG制造业表现指数显着改善。澳元兑美元从0.9110（上周收盘时创下的新低）回升至0.9200。上周五发布的官方外汇储备货币构成数据显示，澳元占第一季度官方储备的1.60%，但该比重在第二季度并未录得大幅波动，还很可能因广泛的美元需求而有所下滑。澳元交易情绪依然很消极。投标买入价见于0.9100之前，而0.90仍是主要目标。

　　疲软的欧元风险偏好使欧元兑美元的复苏限制在1.3035水平处。欧元兑日元的大量需求使欧元在东京市场获得巨大支持，但卖出价建立在1.3040-50区间内。经历上周两次测试1.3000后，欧元兑美元现在已变得很是脆弱，主因是有关美联储或削减资产购买规模的投机活动以及（明显）低迷的欧元区经济基本面状况。美国商品期货交易委员会6月25日的数据显示，在具有压力的联邦公开市场委员会会议结束后，欧元期货净多头头寸小幅回落。欧元区PMI和失业率定于今天上午释放，他们应该会给欧元交易注入一些波动性。

　　其他地方，英镑兑美元上周五曾因美国数据而触及1.5166，但现已恢复。由于英镑兑美元在东京市场已反弹至151.57，使得英镑兑美元仍然在1.5200上方获得良好支撑。投资者将密切关注英国PMI，其将会给英镑在今天上午的交易提供方向。

　　本周一，市场将重点关注挪威、西班牙、瑞士、意大利、法国、德国、欧元区以及英国6月制造业PMI、意大利和欧元区5月失业率、欧元区6月CPI预测值年率、美国5月营建支出月率、美国6月ISM制造业指数和物价支付指数以及意大利6月新车注册数。

　　The Asian markets made a mixed start to the week. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.3% on strong quarterly Tankan index, Taiex and Kospi retreated 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. In China, the manufacturing PMI further retreated in June. HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 (vs. 49.2 in May), Shanghai’s Composite pared losses, Hang Seng was closed.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses were better bid in Tokyo, as Tankan index rose to +4 in the second quarter from -8. USDJPY consolidated gains within the tight range of 99.18/54. US and European names alongside with the Japanese exporters were decent sellers pre-99.55. Offers lie from 99.50 to 100.00, while stops are building above. Aussie and kiwi advanced steadily against Yen on short-covering.

　　In Australia, the AIG performance of manufacturing index showed significant improvement in June. AUDUSD recovered to 0.9200 from 0.9110, fresh low hit at last week’s closing. Released on Friday, the COFER (composition of foreign exchange reserves) data showed that 1.60% of the reserves was allocated to AUD in Q1, that the aussie didn’t register heavy fluctuations yet probably fell in Q2 due to larger broad-based USD demand. The sentiment in AUD remains solidly negative. Bids are seen pre-0.9100, while 0.90 remains the main target.

　　The weak EUR-appetite limited the EURUSD recovery at 1.3035 in Asia. Decent demand in EURJPY gave decent support to euro in Tokyo, yet the offers are building back at 1.3040/50 zone. Having tested below 1.3000 twice last week, EURUSD has become fragile on specs on Fed tapering the asset purchases and (obviously) the gloomy Euro-zone economic fundamentals. The June 25th CFTC data showed that the net long positions in Euro futures retreated slightly after the squeezy FOMC meeting. Downside stops are eyed below 1.2980. The PMI releases and the Euro-Zone unemployment due in the morning should inject some volatility in EUR-trading.

　　Else, GBPUSD recovered from 1.5166 hit on US data last Friday. The pair remained well supported above 1.5200 with GBPJPY rally to 151.57 in Tokyo. Trader will watch the PMI release to give direction to GBP this morning.

　　This Monday, the focus is on Norwegian, Spanish, Swiss, Italian, French, German, Euro-Area, UK June PMI Manufacturing, Italian and Euro-Zone May Unemployment Rate, Euro-Zone June CPI Estimate y/y, US May Construction Spending m/m, US June ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid, and Italian June New Car Registrations.