At least one FOMC guessing game ended last night after the minutes revealed that tapering will end in October with a final$15 billion reduction in asset purchases,rather than leaving the last$5 billion until December.The usual caveat applies of course with the taper subject to economic conditions.With the way the US economy is shaping up though it’ll take some shock for the Fed to deviate from this course.Now we can focus on when the Fed is most likely to raise rates,but judging from the muted reaction of the dollar which has barely appreciated in the slightest,we are still a long way off from this.It reminds us that tapering is not tightening and the first rate hike when it comes is likely to be beyond H1 of 2015.　　

昨天晚上FOMC至少有一个猜谜游戏已经结束了。此前其会议纪要提示说紧缩会在十月份结束，最终资产购买将减少150亿美元，而不是到十二月份的50亿美元。当然通常出现的问题也会发生在紧缩这个和经济情况有关系的东西上。在这种情况下，美国经济逐渐成形，不过美联储还是要用大的手段使其偏离轨道。现在我们可以关注美联储何时才会加息，不过从美元升值有限的情况来看，加息还离开我们很远。这提醒我们，紧缩不是收紧，而且第一次加息也可能在2015年上半年之后了。　　

A big mover overnight has been the Aussie which has once again retreated from the mid 0.9400 area with AUDUSD falling to 0.9365 at the time of writing.The market was rather taken by surprise when unemployment increased to 6.0%and whilst such a piece of data isn’t welcome from the perspective of the wider economy,the central bank will like to see the Aussie softening.　　

昨天的一个大变动就是澳元再次从0.9400区域退回，其中澳元美元在此文写成时下降到了0.9365。市场因为失业率上升到了6.0而感受到震动，而且这样的数据从宏观经济来看是不受欢迎的，央行更愿意看到澳元软化。　　

Today’s major event will be the Bank of England interest rate decision although no fireworks are expected.Sterling has been softening a little this morning with GBPUSD retreating from overnight highs around 1.7165 to 1.7125 at the time of writing and on some technical indicators it remains over bought and now that the RSI is turning down it will be interesting to watch if a corresponding sell off in cable materialises.　　

今天主要的事件会是英格兰银行的利率决定，不过我们不期待会有什么惊喜。今天上午英镑一直在软化，此文写成的时候，其中英镑美元从昨天的高点1.7165下降到了1.7125，从某些技术指标来看英镑仍然维持过卖的局面。既然RSI（相对强弱指数）在下降，那么观察英镑美元会不会卖空就会很有意思了。