20/06/13@ 07:25 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130620/meilianchu-tuilu

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　USD:The housing data was one of the brighter spots of the economy last year, but in general the pace of improvement has flattened out this year. Existing home sales data is seen rising marginally today. It would take a notably stronger number than the 5.00 mln gain expected to support the dollar.

　　GBP:The retail sales data is seen recovering some of the sharp fall seen in the April data (down 1.3% MoM), but overall consumer spending has been relatively weak as a result of wages barely keeping up with inflation. But sterling has benefited more recently from the better tone to data, so a firmer reading than the 0.8% gain expected would further help the pound.

　　EUR:Advance PMI data has the potential to impact the euro should they stray far from expectations. Both the services and manufacturing data for the Eurozone are seen a touch firmer, but both still both 50.0.

　　美元：房屋数据是去年经济的亮点之一，但今年改善的步伐普遍放缓。今天现房销售数据小幅上升。但是要超过5百万的上涨才能对美元产生支持力。

　　英镑：零售数据恢复了一些四月份剧烈下跌的部分（环比下降1.3%），但是总消费数据由于工资追不上通胀的步伐而相对疲软。不过由于最近的数据不过英镑从其中获利不少，因此数据稳定能有超过0.8%的上涨的话将对英镑提供进一步的帮助。

　　欧元：先期PMI 数据有可能影响到欧元，如果这个数据离开预期较远的话。欧元区的服务和制造业数据都趋于稳定，两者都为50.0。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　Yesterday illustrated just how sensitive FX and other markets are to the prospect of the US central bank scaling back the amount of bonds it purchases. There were very small changes to the statement and more clarity from the Fed Chairman Bernanke on the fact that the Fed would start ‘tapering’ bond purchases, with the Fed Chairman Bernanke suggesting this will happen this year if the economy performs as the Fed expects. The dollar was just over 1% higher yesterday (dollar index), the biggest daily gain for nearly 6 weeks. Equities were down around 1% in the US and Asia stocks are currently down between 1.7% (Nikkei) and 2.6% (Hang Seng). With the Fed now out of the way and some more clarity around the tapering issue, the question for markets is whether the dollar can and will establish a more bullish tone, which many are looking for in the second half of the year. The Aussie, Kiwi and yen have been the biggest losers so far in the stronger dollar environment.

　　昨天的情况解释了外汇及其他市场对于美国央行减少其购买债券的数量这个事情有多么敏感。关于美联储开始“紧缩”债券购买这件事情，其声明变化不多，而美联储主席伯南克的发言中也多有澄清。伯南克说如果经济情况的发展与美联储预期一致，今年就会开始“紧缩”计划。昨天美元直上升了1%（美元指数），这是六个星期以来最大的日涨幅。美国股票市场下跌将近1%，而亚洲股市则位于1.7%（日经指数）和2.6%（恒生指数）之间。随着美联储失去控制，同时紧缩问题越来越明晰，市场方面的问题就是美元是否有能力而且会出现看涨的趋势，这也是下半年很多人盼望的事情。澳元，新元和日元在美元强势的环境中最大的失败者。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY:The yen weaker than most vs. the dollar after the Fed decision. Weekly data again showed Japanese investors net sellers of both foreign bonds and equities for the fifth consecutive week. USDJPY now back above the 100 day moving average which currently sits at 96.86.

　　GBP: The initial weakness seen Wednesday after the MPC minutes was soon recovered. Comments overnight from the Chancellor were cautiously optimistic on the economy.

　　AUD:Proving to be the most vulnerable to the stronger dollar in the wake of the Fed decision, down 3% since the statement was released. Weaker PMI data from China was also not supportive for the currency. Aussie is now at levels last seen September 2010.

　　CNY:The HSBC manufacturing measures was weaker at 48.3 (from 49.2), with this adding to weaker tone to Asia stocks and also Aussie. Both CNY and CNH have been relatively stable (CNY more so) during June, in comparison to the strengthening trend seen in April and May.

　　日元：美联储发布决定之后，日元针对美元相比大多数货币都较为疲软。每周数据再次显示出日本投资者连续第五周成为外国债券和股票的净卖家。美元日元现在回到100天移动均线之上，目前在96.86处。

　　英镑：货币政策委员会会议纪要发布后，周三出现的疲软很快得到恢复。前一天财政大臣的评论表达出一种审慎的乐观。

　　澳元：美联储决定发布后，澳元被证明是针对强势美元最脆弱的货币，自从声明发布后下降了3%。中国PMI 疲软对于澳元也没有帮助。澳元现在位于2010年9月的水平。

　　人民币：汇丰的制造业数据疲软，为48.3（此前为49.2），折页加剧了亚洲股市和澳元的疲软局面。六月份人民币和离岸人民币相对稳定（人民币更是如此），和四月以及五月的走强趋势形成对比。

　　FX Alerts

　　NZD GDP

　　新西兰GDP

　　19/06/13@ 22:57 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130620/xinxilan-gdp

　　New Zealand's GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in the three months to March 31

　　新西兰GDP 上涨，三月份调整了0.3%。

　　FX Alerts

　　CHINA PMI

　　中国的PMI

　　20/06/13@ 02:03 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130620/zhongguo-pmi

　　Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector weakened further in June to a 9-month low. The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 48.3 in June from May's final reading of 49.2 AUDUSD reacts poorly to soft China HSBC flash PMI release and decline down to 0.9240

　　六月份中国巨大的制造业部门的活动进一步疲软，达到九个月的低点。汇丰银行的预测PMI 在六月下降到了48.3，而五月份这个数据为49.2。而澳元美元对此的反应很糟糕，下降到了0.9240。

　　FX Alerts

　　FED FOLLOW THROUGH

　　美联储跟进

　　20/06/13@ 10:21 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130620/meilianchu-genjin

　　The European session is seeing further follow through from yesterday's Fed announcement, with the dollar stronger, emerging market FX weaker (India and Russia leading the way lower), shares lower and bond yields higher. The weaker than expected PMI data from China overnight has supported this extension of the initial moves. Gold made a new low for the year below the 1,322 level early on, having now pushed below the 1,300 barrier. The Fed tried to be as subtle as possible, whilst adding clarity to the fairly obvious fact that it cannot go on buying USD 85bln of securities a month forever. For markets, it's a case of balancing moving to this reality, but without causing a rush for the exits.

　　昨天美联储发布声明后，欧洲交易期继续跟进，美元走强，新兴市场外汇疲软（其中印度和俄罗斯领头走低），股票走低而债券收益走高。由于前一天中国的PMI 数据比预期要疲软也助长了这种趋势。此前黄金达到今年的年度新低1322，现在已经低于1300这个屏障。美联储尝试要尽可能低调，但越来越清晰的是美联储无法永远的每月都购买850亿美元的证券。对于市场，关键是事情来临时要平衡，退出时则不能造成拥堵。

　　FX Alerts

　　SILVER LOW

　　白银走低

　　20/06/13@ 23:43 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk