隔夜，风险偏好未见改善。由于市场担忧中国现金紧缩，全球股市和期货延续跌势，美联储官员的温和发言引发外汇市场发生较高波动性。日经225指数下跌0.7％，台湾证交所加权指数下跌1.2％，韩国首尔综合指数下跌1.0％。上证综指早些时候上涨1％，之后因中国人民银行决定不为为市场注入流动性而大跌2.5％，最终恢复了日内的亏损。

　　美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场涨跌互现。美元兑日元因东京薪酬结算日和较高的进口商需求（得到上证综指早些时候上涨的帮助）上涨至 98.06，随后伴随着日经指数的变化而回落至97.28，恢复跌势。美元兑日元的交易势头比较积极，诸多卖出价见于97.80-98.00。

　　经历极不稳定的纽约市场之后，欧元兑美元触及1.3144，并在亚洲市场于1.3110/20区间（前阻力位区间，现已转变为支撑位区间）内获得良好支撑。波动的主要驱动因素是美联储官员发表的有关即将到来的资产购买削减的讲话相互矛盾。美联储的达德利、费舍尔和柯薛拉柯塔表态温和，坚持认为就业和通胀目标都尚未实现，有必要继续实施量化宽松政策，直至失业率降至7％以下且通胀降至2.5％以下。美国10年期国债收益率在纽约市场攀升至 2.6647％，之后在今天的早盘中回落至2.50％。

　　欧元兑美元在欧洲市场开盘后上涨。卖出价位于1.3180-1.3200。有关美联储削减量化宽松政策之相互矛盾的意见很可能会让外汇市场维持较高的波动性，直至获得详细而明确的前景。然而，市场似乎仍然愿意就迟早会削减量化宽松政策而打赌。

　　与欧元兑美元类似的是，英镑隔夜反弹至1.5465（其21日移动均线）并整合涨幅。今天上午，随着美元的普遍走软，英镑被广泛买进。至于欧元，伴随着其在早盘中的涨势，欧元兑英镑上行突破0.8480阻力位。

　　今天，投资者将重点关注法国6月商业信心指数、西班牙和瑞典5月PPI月率和年率、意大利4月零售销售月率和年率、英国5月BBA购房贷款、美国5月耐用品订单、美国4月S＆P / CS综合20年率及房屋价格指数、美国6月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数、美国6月消费者信心指数和美国5月新屋销售月率。

　　The risk appetite showed no improvement overnight. The global equity markets and futures extended losses with ongoing squeezes in China, while dovish comments from Fed officials triggered high volatility in the FX markets. The Nikkei 225 wrote-off another 0.7%, Taiex lost 1.2%, Kospi retreated 1.0%. The Shanghai’s Composite advanced 1% early in the session, then plunged 2.5% as PBOC abstained from injecting liquidity in the markets, finally recovered the intra-day losses.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses were mixed in Tokyo. USDJPY advanced to 98.06 on Gotobi Tokyo fix and high importer demand (helped by Shanghai’s Composite’s early rally), then eased to 97.28 and recovered towards the session end, alongside with the Nikkei index. The momentum is positive in USDJPY yet offers are still crowded from 97.80 to 98.00.

　　After a highly volatile session in New York, EURUSD hit 1.3144 and remained well supported in Asia at 1.3110/20 (resistance zone turned support). The main driver in volatility was certainly the Fed officials’ contradictory comments on the upcoming tapering of the asset purchases. Fed’s Dudley, Fisher and Kocherlakota voiced dovish statements on Fed, insisting on the failure to meet the employment and inflation objectives and the necessity to continue the QE until unemployment falls below 7% with inflation under 2.5%. The US 10-year treasury yields climbed to 2.6647% in New York, before easing to 2.50% levels early in the session.

　　EURUSD traded a leg up in the European opening. Offers lie through 1.3180-1.3200. The contradictory comments on Fed tapering are likely to keep the volatility high in the FX markets until a detailed and clear outlook is stated. The markets however still seem willing to bet on the QE unwind sooner than later.

　　On a similar pattern, GBP rallied to 1.5465 (its 21-dayMA) and consolidated gains overnight. With broad based weakness in USD this morning, Cable trades on the buy side. On the euro leg, EURGBP cross broke the 0.8500-resistance to the upside, with early rally in euro.

　　Today, traders will focus on French June Business Confidence Indicator, Spanish and Swedish May PPI m/m & y/y, Italian April Retail Sales m/m & y/y, UK May BBA Loans for House Purchase, US May Durable Goods Orders, US April S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y & Home Price Index, US June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, US June Consumer Confidence and US May New Home Sales m/m.