外汇市场依旧笼罩在中国现金紧缩担忧以及美联储或将于年底逐渐缩小资产购买规模的揣测之下。中国人民银行隔夜表示，其将采取必要措施以保持货币市场的稳定。上证综指继续走低，跌落至2009年1月以来的最低水平，此举推动日经指数走低（下跌1%）。其他地区，股票市场有所恢复：恒生指数涨 1.4%，而ASX200指数（+1.6％）、NZX 50指数（+1.8％）、台湾加权指数（+1.6％）以及韩国首尔综合指数（+0.2％）的亏损有所减小。

　　隔夜美元兑日元以及日元交叉盘均被卖出。利好美国数据推动美元兑日元出现反弹，但在97.80/98.00的区间内出现强劲阻力，之后在东京市场一举突破该区间创下新高98.24，随后在欧洲市场因98.25水平上的稳固供应而回落至98.00以下。98.00以上的稳固阻力与将于98.00、 98.25、98.30以及98.40水平上到期的期权相关。预计在98.50之前会有更多的阻力。

　　在昨天发布的数据中，美国5月耐用品订单意外上扬；美国4月主要城市的住房价格上涨幅度超出预期，而6月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数和消费者信心指数也大幅改善。这些支撑性数据使得有关美联储或将削减量化宽松政策规模的投机活动重燃生机；美元多头已占据上风，10年期美元国债收益率攀升至 2.6158%。今天，美国第一季度GDP数据（将于格林威治时间12:30发布）应该会触发更多的波动。任何积极惊喜都将有利于美元多头。

　　受美国数据的强烈冲击，欧元兑美元失去了其因美联储官员周一所发表的温和言论而赢得的涨幅，并在东京市场将亏损扩大至1.3057。欧元兑日元已下跌至127.32。上证综指的进一步走弱加重了欧元的复杂局面。

　　由于出现更高的买入价，在明天的英国GDP数据发布之前，英镑兑美元将一直会得到1.5400/10区域的良好支撑。

　　在新西兰，财长英格里希表示，中国信贷紧缩令新西兰担忧。纽元兑美元在0.77-0.78区间内整合亏损。在澳大利亚，澳洲资源和能源经济局（BREE）预测，澳洲在2013/14财年的铁矿石出口料增长11%。澳元兑美元依然变化不大，在0.9300之前存在强劲的阻力。

　　今天，重点关注瑞士5月UBS消费指标、德国7月消费者信心指数、法国第一季度GDP（终值）季率和年率、西班牙4月资本按揭贷款和住房按揭贷款年率、挪威4月份失业率、美国6月21日MBA抵押贷款申请、美国第一季度GDP季率（年化）、GDP指数、个人消费支出和核心个人消费支出季率以及法国5月求职者人数。

　　The FX markets remain dominated by the Chinese cash crunch and the speculations on Fed tapering the asset purchases by the end of this year. PBOC said overnight that it will take the necessary measures to stabilize the money markets. The Shanghai’s Composite consolidated losses at the lowest levels since January 2009, pulling the Nikkei lower (-1%). Elsewhere, the stock markets recovered; Hang Seng advanced 1.4%, while ASX200 (+1.6%), NZX 50 (+1.8%), Taiex (+1.6%) and Kospi index (+0.2%) pared losses.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses were offered overnight. The USDJPY-rally on good US data saw strong resistance at 97.80/98.00 zone, cleared in Tokyo to hit 98.24 and eased back below 98.00 with solid offers at 98.25 from European names. The solid resistance above 98.00 is correlated to option expires at 98.00, 98.25, 98.30 and 98.40. More resistance is to be expected pre-98.50.

　　Released yesterday, the US durable goods orders surprised to the upside in May; home prices in major US cities rose more-than-expected in April while Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the consumer confidence improved significantly in June. Supportive data revived the hawkish specs on Fed tapering; the USD-bulls took control, 10-year US yield climbed to 2.6158%. Today, the first quarter US GDP growth (due at 12:30 GMT) should trigger some more volatility. Any positive surprise should boost USD-bulls.

　　Highly impacted by the US data, EURUSD erased the gains triggered by dovish Fed officials’ comments on Monday and extended losses to 1.3057 in Tokyo. EURJPY sold-off to 127.32. Further weakness in Shanghai’s Composite weighed on euro-complex.

　　Better bid, GBPUSD remained well supported at 1.5400/10 area, ahead of the UK GDP release due tomorrow.

　　In New Zealand, the finance minister English said that the Chinese credit crunch is a concern for NZ. NZDUSD consolidated losses between 0.77/0.78 band. In Australia, BREE (Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics) forecasted the 13/14’ energy and resources exports increase by +11%. AUDUSD remained little changed, with strong resistance pre-0.9300.

　　Today, the focus is on the Swiss May UBS Consumption Indicator, German July Consumer Confidence, French 1Q (Final) GDP q/q & y/y, Spanish April Mortgages-capital loaned and on Houses y/y, Norway April Unemployment Rate, US June 21st MBA Mortgage Applications, US 1Q(Third) GDP q/Q (Annualized), GDP index, Personal Consumption, and Core PCE q/q and French Jobseekers in May.