21/08/13@ 07:33 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130821/fomc-zhiqian-meiyuan-yali-jixu

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP:The UK releases Public Sector Net Borrowing data this morning where a surplus is expected, the first since February. With signs that the UK economy is improving, expectations are for a reduction in government debt which could help support GBP.

　　USD: The major risk event of the day comes in the form of the FOMC minutes later today which will provide a detailed record of the meeting held two weeks ago. Many traders are hoping that this is going to answer the “will they, won’t they” taper in September question that’s been dominating the markets in recent weeks.

　　英镑：今天上午英国发布了公共部门借贷净额数据，期待能有盈余，这是二月以来的第一次发布。有迹象显示英国的经济正在改善，预期就是政府债务能够减少，这样英镑可能得到支持。

　　美元：今天主要的风险事件就是今天晚些时候要发布的联邦公开市场委员会会议内容，其内容是两周前那次会议的详细纪录。许多交易者都希望这份会议纪要能够回到“他们会还是不会”在九月开始紧缩的问题，最近几周这个一直在困扰着市场。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　We’ve seen a continual and gradual weakening of the US dollar throughout the past few years whilst the US Federal Reserve has been undertaking its quantitative easing program and now traders look to be readying themselves for the possibility that next month might mark the start of an equally as gradual withdrawal of stimulus. Already markets have been trying to anticipate such a move with many emerging market currencies counting the cost, as the reverse of what happened during the height of the Fed’s easing looks to be underway. The decline of the Indian Rupee is a case in point although the weakness of that currency is as much about the slowing economy as it is about tapering talk. But as yet there’s no distinct clarity on when tapering will actually commence. So far this week has been building up to tonight’s FOMC minutes for signs that September will mark the end of the Fed’s QE as we know it. All eyes will therefore be on the dollar today and especially later when the minutes are released.

　　我们发现，过去几年里美元在持续而缓慢的疲软，而美国联邦储备银行一直在进行其量化宽松计划，而现在交易者期待自己能够做好准备迎来下个月开始的刺激措施的撤离。市场已经在期待这种转变，而新兴市场货币则在计算成本，因为当美联储的宽松计划达到最高点的时候情况已经开始逆转。印度卢比的下跌就是一个很好的例子，不过卢比的疲软和印度经济放缓几乎是一样多的，因为这和紧缩有关。不过到底紧缩疾患什么时候开始还十分不明确。这周到目前为止，今天晚上联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的会议纪要发布之前，越来越多的迹象显示出九月份将标志着我们所知的美联储量化宽松计划的终结。因此大家都在关注今天的美元，特别是今晚FOMC 的会议纪要要发布的时候。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　EUR:The selloff in emerging market currencies has led to strength in the single currency as well as the Swiss Franc. EURUSD hit its highest level since February forming a six month high by breaking through 1.3435.

　　USD:Doubt about whether today’s FOMC minutes will give more of a clue about tapering next months from the Fed led to a bout of dollar weakness yesterday and so traders will be looking to see if there’s a degree of “sell the rumour, buy the fact” leading to a dollar bounce later today.

　　欧元：新兴市场货币的卖空导致了欧元和瑞士法郎走强。欧元美元达到二月以来的最高水平，突破了1.3435达到六个月以来的高点。

　　美元：大家在质疑今天FOMC 的会议既要能否让我们更明白下个月美联储的紧缩计划，这导致昨天美元开始疲软，而交易者在期待今天晚些时候能否出现一定程度的“谣言买入，事实卖出”。

　　FX Alerts

　　U.S. EXISTING HOME SALES AT 5.39M

　　美国现房销售539万

　　21/08/13@ 14:06 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130821/meiguo-xianfang-xiaoshou-539wan

　　U.S. Existing Home Sales better than expected at 5.39M (actual) vs 5.15M (forecast)

　　EURUSD trading at 1.3384

　　美国现房销售比预期要好，实际数据为539 万，预期是515 万。

　　欧元美元位于1.3384