美国债务上限问题毫无进展，风险规避情绪加深，本周就在这种背景下展开。美国众议院议长博纳表示，如果没有其他规定，共和党不能提高债务上限，而奥巴马总统不可能会接受延迟奥巴马医改提案。不过，奥巴马总统表示，他认为国会将在10月17日之前触及债务上限。据《华盛顿邮报》的报道，到目前为止，美国众议院通过了向联邦雇员发放薪水的议案，五角大楼称大部分下岗雇员将重返岗位。

　　回顾上周五，因希望美国能达成一项决议，美元需求普涨成为外汇市场的主要推动力。欧元兑美元清理了支撑位1.3580，抛售至1.3539。由于美国方面并无消息传出，欧元兑美元开始了收复损失的一周。趋势仍然是上行，但势头看似有所减弱。止损位建在1.3550以下，如果触发，应该会给关键支撑位1.3460带来压力。在上行路上，期权投注混合于1.3600。在英国，英镑兑美元上周五暴跌。先是大量抛售从1.6178大幅下跌至1.6007，之后在亚洲市场反弹1.6014 。趋势势头发生逆转，这表明未来还有较高的抛售压力。

　　因世界银行下调了亚洲新兴经济体今明两年的经济增长前景（分别下调至7.1%和7.2％），亚洲股市周一开盘下跌。日本扩张主义安倍经济学应该会抵消美联储削减购债的影响。美元兑日元和日元交叉盘开盘承压，日经指数下跌1.22％。美元兑日元测试97.00，但日本机构卖出价和进口商需求有助于限制其下行空间。期权买入价见于96.50-75，卖出价将在97.50以下建立。

　　在澳大利亚， AIG建筑业表现指数意外从43.7上扬至47.6。澳元兑美元反弹至0.9450 ，但整体风险规避情绪已经接手。日内势头由正转负，欧洲市场一开盘就向下突破了0.9400。

　　本周一的经济日历由瑞士9月外汇储备、挪威8月工业生产月率和年率、欧元区10月月Sentix信心指数和美国8月联储消费信贷升跌等数据构成。

　　The week starts with deeper risk aversion as no progress has been made in US regarding the debt ceiling issue. The US House Speaker Boehner said that the Republicans can’t increase the debt ceiling without other provisions, while the President Obama is unlikely to accept any delay in Obamacare. Nevertheless, the President said he sees the Congress topping the debt ceiling before October 17th. So far, the US House passed the bill to pay the federal workers, Pentagon called most of the furloughed employees to come back to work, as reported by Washington Post.

　　Back on Friday, the fx markets were dominated by a broad based USD demand on hopes for a US resolution. EURUSD cleared support at 1.3580 and sold off to 1.3539. As no news came out of US, EURUSD starts the week recovering losses. The trend remains on the upside, yet the momentum is seen weaker. Stops are building below 1.3550, if triggered should build pressure towards 1.3460 key support. On the upside, option bets are mixed at 1.3600. In UK, GBPUSD took a dive on Friday. The cable smashed from 1.6178 to 1.6007 on massive sell-off, and rebounded from 1.6014 in Asia. The reversal in trend momentum suggest higher selling pressure moving forward.

　　The Asian equities opened the week on the downside as the World Bank revised down the growth outlook in emerging Asia (7.1/7.2%). It has been mentioned that the expansionist Abenomics in Japan should offset the Fed tapering. USDJPY and JPY crosses opened under sell pressure alongside with the Nikkei stocks (-1.22%). USDJPY tested 97.00 yet Japanese institutional offers and importer demand helped to limit the downside. Option bids are seen at 96.50/75, offers are building pre-97.50.

　　In Australia, the AiG construction index unexpectedly advanced from 43.7 to 47.6. AUDUSD rallied to 0.9450, yet the overall risk-off took over. The intra-day momentum turned negative and the pair broke 0.9400 on the downside as soon as Europe walked in.

　　This Monday, the economic calendar consists of Swiss September Foreign currency Reserves, Norwegian August Industrial Production m/m & y/y, Euro-Zone October Sentix Confidence Index and US August Fed Consumer Credit Net Change.