09/10/13 @ 07:19 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20131009/guanzhu-meilianchu

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP: Production data is seen at 08:30 GMT, with this and the manufacturing series seen rising 0.4%. Trade data is also seen improving modestly. Growth is seen holding up relatively well in the third quarter and data in line or firmer should continue keep this this perception in place and supportive for sterling.

　　USD: The Fed minutes for the September meeting are released. This was the meeting where tapering was not announced, sending the dollar lower. The debt ceiling and government shutdown have taken over in deciding the near-term direction of the dollar, but the extent to which this scenario featured in their thinking will be of most interest. If it was the reason for holding back, then it will be dollar supportive as resolution will bring tapering forward. If not, then delay will be seen as more sustained and therefore dollar negative.

　　英镑：格林尼治时间8:30分有生产数据，这个数据加上制造业业系列数据上升了0.4%。贸易数据也有小幅改善。第三季度的增长保持得不错而数据方面也可以说保持了一致或者说更加稳定，如果目前这种情况持续下去而且英镑也得到支持的话。

　　美元：美联储九月的会议纪要发布了。这次会议上没有发布紧缩计划，也将美元推低。债务限额和联邦政府关闭这两件事主导了近期美元的走势，不过其影响的程度才是最让人感兴趣的。如果其原因是因为退后，那么对于美元来说是有利的，因为这个解决方案将推动紧缩前行。如果不是的话，那么这种延迟可能会持续下去并对美元造成不利。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　As time goes on, it’s apparent that the yen is the place to be if you want to take a view on the US government shutdown. The dollar continues to be under pressure and for the most part, the yen is benefitting. Crucially, USDJPY moved below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since mid-November last year and the risk is that more long-term yen bears are forced to bail out if this is breached on a closing basis. The single currency is still doing well, but with speculation of more policy action from the ECB, on either rates or liquidity, then it is struggling to win out against the yen. We pointed out yesterday that FX markets appear to be rather oblivious in terms of future volatility risks to the US budget and debt situation, but there’s little doubt that the dollar is taking it on the chin a lot harder as compared to the summer of 2011.

　　随着时间的推移，很明显如果你想观察美国联邦政府关闭的情况的话，那么日元就是你要去的地方。美元继续受到压力，而日元基本上是在获利。关键的是，美元日元昨天移动到了200天移动均线之下，这是自去年11月中旬以来的第一次。而带来的风险就是更多的长期日元空头可能被迫退出，如果在接近的基础上被突破的话。而欧元的表现还不错，不过欧洲央行仍可能出现更多政策方面的变动，有可能是利率也有可能是流动性，然后针对日元可能会尽力胜出。昨天我们指出，外汇市场看起来不在乎美国预算和债务现状所带来的未来波动风险，不过对比2011年夏季，没多少人质疑美元会失败。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　USD: The dollar recovering as Obama is set to confirm Janet Yellen as his candidate for the next person to lead the US Federal Reserve when Bernanke’s term runs out in January of next year. The firmer dollar tone comes from the removal of uncertainty and continuity, rather than any judgement on Yellen’s policy leaning. Note that 2 year yields are marginally lower in the US.

　　EUR: Another brief breach above the 1.36 level during Asia trade, but the firmer dollar tone has pushed EURUSD back to the 1.3550 by the start of the European open.

　　AUD: The Aussie the strongest performer over the past week, which given the uncertainties surrounding the US is remarkable in itself. Aussie has been recovering vs. the Kiwi for the past four sessions and the good performance of the Aussie reflects the fact that currencies are a relative game and with the dollar out of favour, the Aussie stacks up relatively well in comparison.

　　美元：由于奥巴马指定了 Janet Yellen 作为伯南克明年一月离任后美联储主席的下一任人选，美元在恢复。美元的这种稳定局面来自不确定性的消失以及其延续性，而不是 Yellen 其人的政策倾向性。要注意美国的两年期收益小幅降低了。

　　欧元：亚洲盘口突破到了1.36之上，不过欧洲开盘之后美元稳定的局面将欧元美元拉回到了1.3550。

　　澳元：过去一周澳元是表现最强劲的货币，这是因为美国的情况还不太明确。过去四个交易期内澳元针对新元一直在恢复而澳元的良好表现也反映出货币是一种相对的竞技。随着美元不被人宠爱，相比之下澳元维持得还不错。

　　FX Alerts

　　CABLE BELOW 1.60 AFTER DATA

　　数据发布后英镑美元低于1.60

　　09/10/13 @ 08:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131009/shuju-fabuhou-yingbang-meiyuan-diyu-160

　　GBP around 50 pips lower to 1.5990 after weaker than expected production numbers, showing 1.1% MoM fall (expected 0.4% gain). Trade data also weaker. Data likely to dent expectations for a strong Q3 GDP reading, but positive reading still likely given survey and other indicators.

　　随着生产数据比预期要疲软，英镑下降了50个pip到了1.5990，月环比下降了1.1%（预期是上升0.4%）。贸易数据也在疲软。这些数据削弱了对第三季度 GDP 数据可能走强的预期，不过考虑到其他调查数据和指数，这个数字还是可能走高的。