Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　EUR: Just final CPI data for the Eurozone, with confirmation of initial 1.3% reading expected. There is a small risk event for the single currency should we see a revision of this provisional reading.

　　USD: Some interest with the industrial production and capacity utilisation data today. Production seen rising 0.5%, with capacity utilisation expected to rise from 77.6% to 77.9%. Weaker readings on both would be dollar negative, but only modestly so.

　　AUD: The minutes to the latest RBA meeting are released Tuesday. At this meeting, the committee adjusted the language in the statement, leaning towards a more neutral outlook for policy. This provided further impetus to the current reversal of the Aussie, so if the discussion adds to the perception that further rate cuts are off the agenda, the Aussie could receive further near-term support.

　　欧元：欧元区只有最终 CPI 数据，最终确认了我们一开始期待的1.3%这个读数。如果这个临时性的数据被修改的话，将有可能给欧元带来一定的事件风险。

　　美元：今天让大家有一点兴趣的是工业生产和产能利用率数据。工业生产数据上升了0.5%而产能利用率期待能从77.6%上涨到77.9%。如果两个数据不如人意的话将对美元产生不利影响，不过程度不会很大。

　　澳元：澳洲联储最新的会议纪要在周二发布了。这次会议上，委员会调整了声明中的语言表述，在政策上表现出一种更加中性的前景。这给目前正在逆转的澳元提供了进一步的动力，因此如果大家的议论让人越来越觉得进一步降息是不可能的话，那么澳元可能会获得进一步的近期支持。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　The dollar weakening and 'risk-assets' gaining in early Monday trade as the leading candidate to be chairman of the US Federal Reserve pulls out of the race. There are two reasons why this matters so much. Firstly, Larry Summers was seen as more concerned about the unintended consequences of quantitative easing than the current chairman and also the other contender in the race, current Vice-Chair Janet Yellen. So the Fed was seen reducing QE and raising rates earlier with him at the helm. The second reason why it matters is that the Fed is so influential in supporting asset markets, such as stocks, gold and emerging markets with its QE policies. So the initial reaction is understandable, but may struggle to be sustained. If anything, the reaction in markets could make it more likely that the Fed does reduce the monthly pace of asset purchases (so-called tapering) at its meeting this week, so the initial negative dollar reaction may struggle to be fully sustained by the end of the week.

　　星期一早上美元弱化而“风险资产”上升，这是因为美联储主席的第一个候选人退出了竞争。这件事情之所以重要有两个原因。首先，相比目前的主席以及另一个竞争者，目前的副主席 Janet Yellen，Larry Summers 被认为是更加关注量化宽松可能造成的意想不到的后果。因此，大家认为美联储在减少量化宽松并提升此前他掌舵是的利率。第二个之所以重要的原因就是美联储非常有影响力的方面是资产市场，比如股票，黄金和有量化宽松的新兴市场。因此一开始的反映是可以让人理解的，不过得花一点力气才能持续下去。如果出现情况，市场得反应非常可能让美联储在这个月得会议上开始减少其月度资产购买得步伐（也就是所谓得紧缩）。因此一开始美元得负面反应可能会持续到这个周末。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　USD: EURUSD initially around 70 pips on the back of the news that Summers pulled out of the rate for Fed chair, meaning Fed seen as holding stimulus for longer. The latest events in the Syrian crisis (military action less likely from US) have also been supportive to this move.

　　EUR: Increased focus on the German election this coming weekend, but with FDP having a weak showing in state elections in Bavaria over the weekend, the main focus is whether they will have enough votes to maintain their current place in a Merkel coalition. But CSU did well at weekend elections, which is overall positive for the single currency.

　　AUD: The Aussie briefly pushed above last week’s high in early Asia trading to just below the 0.94 level, but has since retraced. Minutes to the September policy meeting will be the focus for tomorrow.

　　美元：欧元美元一开始因为 Summers 退出竞争美联储主席 而下降了70个pip，这意味着美联储可能会更长得保留刺激措施。叙利亚危机最新得局势（美国可能不会采取军事行动）也给这一变动提供了支持。

　　欧元：大家越来越关注这个周末将要举行得德国选举，不过自民党（FDP）在周末巴伐利亚州选举中表现不如意，主要得焦点就是他们是否能得到足够得选票已维持其在默克尔联盟中目前得位置。不过基督教社会联盟党（CSU）在周末得选举表现不错，这对欧元提供了全面得支持。

　　澳元：亚洲交易期内澳元一开始推高到了上周的高点，仅仅低于0.94这个水平，不过随后又下降了。九月政策会议的内容将是明天的焦点。