Last week was meant to provide some answers for FX markets, which was the case for the ECB and less so for the US labour market data, with Friday’s payrolls numbers coming in broadly in line with expectations. For now, the euro has not significantly reacted to the events of last week and although we doubt that the measures will weaken the euro as much as many expect, the nature of the new measures mean that their impact is more uncertain than usual, so there will be a close focus once the new measures are in place and start to feed through into the behaviour of banks and also markets.

　　For this week, we are likely to see a calmer tone to FX. The kiwi will be the main point of interest from a policy point of view, the RBNZ deciding on interest rates on Wednesday, where further increase to 3.25% is expected and a more neutral tone within the statement. This outcome is largely priced into the kiwi, given that many were expecting the shift in tone to occur at theApril meeting. The kiwi has underperformed both against the dollar and also the Aussie since that time, so the main risks are with the RBNZ holding rates steady, which would naturally be taken as a negative for the currency.

　　Otherwise, there remains a sense of sterling continuing to defy gravity. Cable is popping above the 1.68 level at the start of European trade and will be focusing on the labour market data on Wednesday, where further signs of buoyancy could well propel sterling higher on the notion that the debate regarding higher rates is likely to come to the fore.

　　上周本来外汇市场会得出答案，就是欧洲央行和美国劳动市场数据，因为周五的就业数据整体上和预期一致。现在，欧元并没有对上周的事件产生显著的反应；虽然我们怀疑那些措施会如很多人期待地那样弱化欧元，但这些新措施的本质意味着其影响比往常要更加具有不确定性，因此，一旦新措施出来并开始影响到银行和市场的行为，大家都会密切关注。

　　这一周，外汇市场也许会比较平静。从政策方面看，新西兰元会是一个主要焦点，因为新西兰央行（RBNZ）将在周三出台利率决定，预期会增加到3.25%，而其声明将会更加中性化。此事的后果将对新元产生重大影响，因为许多人本来都一直在期待四月份那次会议会出现变化。自从那次会议后，新元针对美元和澳元的表现都一直不好，因此主要的风险就是新西兰央行会维持利率不变，这样就很自然的会给新元造成负面影响。

　　此外，我们还感觉到英镑继续没有受到影响。英镑美元在欧洲盘跳到了1.68 之上，并且会密切关注周三的劳动市场数据。到那时英镑或许得到动力而走高，因为针对加息的辩论就会走到前台。