Daily Forex Brief

　　CHINA CHECK

　　注意中国

　　25/06/13@ 07:10 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130625/zhuyi-zhongguo

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　USD:A lot of second tier data in the US. As always, the durable goods numbers are volatile and can cause some initial reaction, but this often not sustained. Consumer confidence was the highest for more than four years last month, so market will be looking to see if this holds up.

　　美元：美国有不少第二层级的数据。和以往一样，耐用品数字有波动而且一开始会导致一些反应，但这种情况通常不会持久。上个月的消费者信心数据是四年来最高的，因此市场在观望这种情况是否持续。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　Even those focused on the majors should not ignore the recent events in China, with money market rates having moved higher last week, the currency weakening vs. the dollar and stocks falling more than 15% so far this month, with no consensus on what exactly is going on. It matters for two primary reasons. Firstly, it’s happening at a time when emerging markets in general are adjusting to the Fed’s comments of last week. Secondly, it threatens those who are most exposed to China. Australia is the standout example, but Germany has also seen exports to China more than triple in size over the past 10 years. But it’s the Aussie that could prove the most vulnerable from a more sustained slowdown in China and/or continuation of the current credit-related concerns and money market squeeze. The scope for more Aussie losses remains over the coming few weeks.

　　即使那些关注主要货币的人也不应该忽略最近中国的变化。上周货币市场利率走高，而人民币针对美元在疲软，这个月到目前为止股票下跌了超过 15%，而且目前对这些变化还没有一致的认识。重要的是有两个首要原因。首先，中国的变化出现时恰好是新兴市场普遍在根据美联储上周的评论作出调整的时间。其次，这种情况威胁到了那些最接近中国的人。澳大利亚就是最突出的例子，不过德国在过去十年里对中国的出口量是此前的三倍。但是受中国经济持续放缓和 /或不间断的当前信贷相关问题以及货币市场挤压之影响，澳元才是最脆弱的货币。未来几周澳元出现更多损失还是有可能的。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY:Holding steady for the past couple of sessions, having had a strong run upwards on USDJPY from the 93 area to above the 100d moving average at 97.00. The focus is on inflation data at the end of the week, with election next month slowing the momentum on economic reform.

　　AUD: The bond market, which sold off dramatically on Monday, staged a modest comeback Tuesday, 10 year yields falling back below the 4% level, with yesterday’s push higher putting yields at a 14-month high. The currency is looking more to events in China, although the bond market remains a concern, given around 70% is held by overseas investors.

　　CNY:The Chinese currency weaker for the third consecutive session as money market rates remain elevated and the stock market fell another 3%.

　　日元：过去几个交易期内维持了稳定，这是因为美元日元强势上涨，从93这个区域上升到了100天移动均线，即97.00，之上。关注的焦点还是在这周末的通胀数据，而下个月的选举将会减慢经济改革之势头。

　　澳元：债券市场在周一出现戏剧性的卖空，然后周二又温和的恢复。10年期债券跌到了4%以下，而昨天的上涨将收益拉高到了14个月以来的高点。澳元更加关注中国的情况，不过由于大概70%的份额在海外投资者手里，债券市场仍然让人担心。

　　人民币：由于货币市场利率高企而股票市场又下跌了3%，中国的人民币连续三个交易期疲软。

　　FX Alerts

　　YEN CREEP

　　日元在爬行

　　25/06/13@ 11:09 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130625/riyuan-paxing

　　A relatively steady morning for FX after what has been a roller-coaster few days in the wake of the Fed statement of last week. The main stand-out is the yen, with USDJPY seeing some stops triggered above the 97.20 area to see an initial push to 97.50. The 200d moving average currently sits at 97.00 and hold above here could mean that bigger players tentatively add to long positions. Inflation data is seen Friday, but still probably a little early to expect to see prices moving higher as a result of recent policy initiatives.

　　上周美联储的声明发布后，经历了几天惊险如过山车的日子，今天上午外汇市场相对稳定。其中主要的突出者是日元，而美元日元在97.20区域上方出现了一些止损的情况，而随后又向97.50进发。目前200天移动均线在97.00附近，如果能够保持在此处的话就意味着大玩家在试探性的增加长仓。周五有日本的通胀数据，但是要看到最近的政策导致的价格上涨的话可能还是太早了。

　　FX Alerts

　　EURO AT SESSION LOWS

　　欧元处于交易期低点

　　25/06/13@ 12:48 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130625/ouyuan-chuyu-jiaoyiqi-didian

　　EURUSD at session lows below 1.31 level (1.3085 low) after US data and comments from ECB Pres Draghi. US Durable Goods were firmer, rising 3.6% on headline.

　　美国的数据以及欧洲央行总裁Draghi 的评论发布后，欧元美元位于交易期内的低点，低于1.31（低至1.3085）。美国的耐用品数据更加稳定，整体上升了3.6%。