本周以有所改善的市场情绪开始，主因是日本7月进出口呈现显着进展。贸易赤字从-1808亿日元（日本历史上的第三高赤字水平）上扬至-10.24亿日元。在中国，7月新房价格上涨7.5％（6月上涨6.8％）。日经225指数上涨0.79％，上证综指上涨0.94％，而恒生指数变动不大。

　　美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场涨跌互现。早盘中，美元兑日元上涨至97.86；之后美国短期资金在97.80-98.00范围内卖出。面对更深的贸易赤字，该货币对下降至97.36。期权买入价见于98.00/25，而卖出价位于97.00以上。

　　在欧元区，,商业银行自5月以来已偿还570亿美元的LTRO贷款；欧洲央行资产负债表规模进一步收窄至2.4万亿欧元。欧元兑美元在亚洲市场维持1.3321/43窄幅震荡。1.3342（2-4月下降期间之61.8％的斐波那契水平）上的卖盘限制了上扬空间，而来自期权市场和主权级市场参与者的更多卖盘见于1.3400-20区间之前。在缺乏主要数据/事件的情况下，市场专注于德国大选；德国总理安格拉•默克尔表示，排除在选举后与社会民主党进行联盟的可能性。

　　在澳大利亚，7月新车销量萎缩3.5％。尽管销售数据疲软，但澳元兑美元还是反弹至0.9233，这主要得益于澳元兑日元的需求以及美元全面走软的行情。在21日移动均线（0.9197）上方，买盘比较少，但我们在0.9200上看到大量到期期权。在新西兰，第二季度输入PPI从0.8％下降至0.6％，输出PPI从0.8％上涨至1.0％。纽元依然在上涨。纽元兑美元已突破日云顶（0.8120），而澳元兑纽元的早期强势已经减弱。买盘见于1.1300以上，但抛售压力仍然很大。

　　在英国，英镑本周开始下行。欧洲市场开盘后，英镑兑美元反弹至1.5610。目前正好位于其布林带上轨道线（1.5688）以下交易；买盘维持在1.5530-50区域。

　　经历一个拥有大量经济数据的交易周之后，本周的经济日历变得清淡。虽然希腊即将释放6月经常账户余额，但缺乏事件的一天只会出现窄幅交易的行情。

　　The week started with improved sentiment as Japan imports and exports showed significant progress in July. The trade deficit advanced to Yen -1.024bn from Yen -180.8bn, the third highest deficit in Japan history. In China, the new home prices rose 7.5% in July (vs. +6.8% in June). The Nikkei 225 added 0.79%, Shanghai’s Composite added 0.94% while Hang Seng remained little changed.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses were mixed in Tokyo. Early in the session, USDJPY advanced to 97.86; the US short-term funds were sellers at 97.80/98.00. The pair fell to 97.36 on deeper trade deficit. Option offers are seen at 98.00/25, while bids trail above 97.00.

　　In the Euro-zone, the commercial banks paid USD 57bn worth LTRO borrowings since May; the ECB balance sheet further narrowed to EUR 2.4trl. EURUSD traded in the tight range of 1.3321/43 in Asia. Offers at 1.3342 (Fibonacci 61.8% on Feb-April drop) capped the upside, while more offers from the option markets and the sovereign names are seen pre-1.3400/20 zone. In absence of major data/event, markets focus on German elections; the Chancellor Angela Merkel said to dismiss the possibility of alliance with the Social Democratic Party post-elections.

　　In Australia, the new motor vehicle sales shrank 3.5% in July. AUDUSD rallied to 0.9233 despite weaker sales. Demand in AUDJPY and the broad-based USD weakness helped. Light bids are seen above the 21-dayMA (0.9197), while we see large option expiry at 0.9200. In New Zealand, the input PPI fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in the second quarter, while the output PPI advanced from 0.8% to 1.0%. The Kiwi remained bid. NZDUSD traded over the daily cloud top (0.8120), while the early strength in AUDNZD faded. Bids are seen above 1.1300 yet the sell pressure remains high.

　　In UK, the Cable started the week on the downside. GBPUSD rallied down to 1.5610 in the European opening. The pair trades just under its upper Bollinger-band (1.5688); bids remain at 1.5530/50 area.

　　After a data-crowded week, the economic calendar is light ahead of us. While Greece will release the June current account balance, the eventless day suggest range-trading.