The crisis in the Ukraine and the wider pressure being put upon Russia over the weekend is the main point of focus for markets at the start of the week.So far,the impact on FX markets has not been major or sustained,with EURUSD constrained to a 30 pip range for the most part at the end of last week.What are viewed as traditional safe haven currencies are not running away to the upside either,the Swissie having unwound initial gains against the euro and the yen also holding tight ranges on the crosses.For now it seems that FX is treating this as a more isolated incident with limited global implications,but there is nothing to say that this may change should more sanctions against Russia be announced this week.　　

乌克兰的危机以及周末俄罗斯受到的压力增大，是这一周开始市场的焦点。到目前为止，外汇市场受到的影响还不算大，或者说还至于持续下去。而上周末大部分时间内欧元美元被压制到了一个30点的范围之中。那些传统避险货币也没有转向上行通道，其中瑞士法郎针对欧元丢失了起初的上涨幅度，而日元也在各个交叉盘上也收紧了自己的范围。目前来看，外汇市场认为时下的事件还比较孤立，不算全球范围的大事件；不过，如果这一周俄罗斯受到更多制裁的话，目前的情况也许还会有所变化。　　

The main points of interest on the data front for markets this week are towards the latter half.The New Zealand central bank is seen raising rates on Wednesday(to 3.50%),which has been largely priced in by the kiwi.Friday sees the release of both German IFO data together with GDP data for the UK.The latter will be crucial for sterling,which has outperformed over the past month on the growing expectation for an earlier than anticipated rise in interest rates from the Bank of England.We will also see the release of minutes to the July MPC meeting on Wednesday,where there is a growing risk that we see one member vote for higher rates.Over the past two months,we’ve seen the minutes reflect the fact that the decision to keep rates on hold has become more finely balanced for some.Sterling has lost some ground against the majors over the past few sessions(EURGBP above the lows made Thursday of last week),but the potential for further policy divergence remains a potentially powerful driver of the currency going forward,but the data and rhetoric will have move in favour of the currency.　　

这一周市场从数据方面来看主要的兴趣点来自后半段。新西兰央行可能在周三开始加息（加到3.50%），新元的定价已经考虑到这个问题。周五会有德国的IFO数据，以及英国的GDP数据。后者对于英镑来说非常重要，因为过去一个月里由于大家越来越期待英格兰银行的加息，英镑一直表现不错。周三还有货币政策委员会（MPC）的七月会议，会议的风险就是可能会有一个成员投票赞成加息。过去两个月里，我们发现其会议纪反映出一个事实，就是维持利率稳定的决定得到了某种平衡。过去几个交易期内，针对其他主要货币，英镑已经丢失了不少领地（欧元英镑已经高出上周四出现的低点），不过政策出现变动的可能性仍然是驱动英镑前行的强大力量，要注意的是数据和言论也会对英镑造成有利影响。