由于地缘政治紧张局势出现缓解，外汇交易者关注焦点转向经济事件/数据之上。自东京市场开盘，日元兑美元录得最大跌幅，原因除了GDP增长出现重大收缩（第二季度初值数据年化后季比下跌6.8%）之外，6月机械订单环比增长缓慢也是其中的重要因数（实际值为8.8%、预期为15.3%、前值为下跌19.5%）。4-6月季比收缩了10.4%，而预期7-9月较为乐观（路透社名调为季比增长2.9%）。由于市场揣测日本央行或将实施更多刺激措施，日元交叉盘赢得了良好竞价。美元兑日元守住了200日移动均线（前阻力位）支撑位，并且上涨至102.66（截止撰写本文时）。大量卖出价位于103.00前方，如清除了此水平，应该能提振多头势头。欧元兑美元在上行路上对21日移动均线进行了测试，但欧元仍旧遭遇抛售压力。　　

在欧元区，7月通货膨胀终值以及第二季度GDP初值将于今天释放。预期其均将有所走软，偏见为坚定看跌。昨天大幅上涨至1.3415触发了快速获利回吐。我们在1.3296-1.3333（2013年11月最低价-8月6日最低价）的区域看到稳定支撑。如日收盘价高于1.3345（MACD枢轴点），应该能够维持疲软的欧元熊市。卖出价分布在1.3400-25（期权性风险-21日移动均线）上方。我们保持逢高卖出的偏见。欧元兑英镑在0.80000上方进行交易，本周收盘之前，期权障碍稳定在0.80500-0.81000。　　

在英国，平均工资增长出现收缩，抵消了失业率和登记失业率进一步改善的积极性。英镑兑美元情绪转向温和，原因是5月季度通货膨胀报告将年度工资增长预测从2.50%下调至1.25%。英国央行行长卡尼表示，鉴于经济对偏紧的银行利率会作如何反应尚不确定，因而不必急于实施首次加息行动。英镑兑美元抛售至1.6670。关键支撑位位于200日移动均线（1.6664）。超卖状况（相对强弱指数在26%、30日布林带下缘在1.6683）表明会在当前水平稍作停顿。　　

新西兰第二季度零售销售（排除通货膨胀因素）上涨1.2%（前值为0.7%），致使纽元兑美元在亚洲市场赢得最大涨幅。该货币对反弹至0.8489，而0.8500前方的卖出价限制了反弹。由于看跌势头有所减缓，突破0.8500-25的区域（心理位水平-MACD枢轴点），应该会表明短期看涨逆转。今天到期的期权竞价位于0.8425-45，首个障碍设定在0.8550。纽元兑日元突破了200日移动均线（86.622）。由于风险偏好表现稳定，技术面表明进一步获利还将朝日一目均衡表云盖（87.786-88.580）发展。澳元兑纽元技术面非常持平，澳元和纽元的交叉盘仍旧粘在1.0911-1.1040（38.2%的斐波那契水平-2013年11月至2014年1月下跌时50.0%的斐波那契水平）的区域内进行交易。为定义新的短期发展方向，还需打破此区域的任意一边。　　

欧洲央行将于今天释放月度报告。值得交易者关注的还有：法国、德国和欧元区第二季度GDP季比和年比初值；法国第二季度非农就业和工资初值；瑞士7月生产者和进口价格月率和年率；欧元区7月CPI月率和年率终值；加拿大6月新房价格指数月率和年率；美国8月9日首次失业救济申请人数和8月2日持续失业救济申请人数以及美国7月进口价格指数月率和年率等。　　

The FX traders’focus shift to economic events/data as the geopolitical tensions de-escalate.The Japanese Yen recorded the largest downside versus USD since Tokyo open as,on top of the significant contraction in GDP(-6.8%q/q annualized according to 2Q(P)data),the machine orders grew at slower pace of 8.8%in month to June(vs.15.3%exp.&-19.5%last).The April-June contraction has been-10.4%on quarter,although the expectations for July-September are more optimistic(+2.9%q/q on Reuters poll).JPY crosses were well bid on speculations for more BoJ stimulus.USD/JPY hold support at the 200-dma(former resistance)and advanced to 102.66(at the time of writing).Offers line up pre-103.00,if cleared,should boost the bullish momentum.EUR/JPY tests the 21-dma on the upside.EUR remains under selling pressures.　　

Euro-zone July final inflation and 2Q preliminary GDP data are due today.Expectations are soft,the bias is firmly negative.Yesterday’s spike to 1.3415 triggered rapid profit taking.We see solid support zone at 1.3296/1.3333(Nov 2013 low/Aug 6th low).A daily close above 1.3345(MACD pivot)should keep the EUR bears timid.Offers line up above 1.3400/25(optionality/21-dma).We remain seller on rallies.EUR/GBP trades above 0.80000,option barriers are solid at 0.80500/0.81000 before the weekly closing bell.　　

In the UK,the contraction in average wage growth offset enthusiasm on further improvement in unemployment and claimant count rate.The sentiment in GBP/USD turned mild as the quarterly Inflation Report revised the annual wage growth forecasts down to 1.25%from 2.50%in May.The BoE Governor Carney said there is no rush for the first rate hike given the uncertainties on how the economy would react to tighter bank rates.GBP/USD sold-off to 1.6670.The critical support stands at the 200-dma(1.6664).The oversold conditions(RSI at 26%,30-day lower BB at 1.6683)suggests a pause at the current levels.　　

Kiwi gained the most vs.USD in Asia as the NZ retail sales(ex-inflation)advanced 1.2%in the second quarter(vs.0.7%a quarter ago).The pair rallied to 0.8489,offers pre-0.8500 capped the rally.As the bearish momentum slows,a break above 0.8500/25 region(psychological level/MACD pivot)should suggest a short-term bullish reversal.Option bids are placed at 0.8425/45 for today expiry,the first set of barriers appear at 0.8550.NZD/JPY sits above its 200-dma(86.622).Technicals suggest further gains towards the daily Ichimoku cloud cover(87.786/88.580)as risk appetite stabilizes.AUD/NZD technicals are perfectly flat,the antipodean cross remains stuck within 1.0911/1.1040 range(Fib 38.2%&50.0%levels on Nov’13–Jan’14 drop).Breakout on either side is required to define fresh short-term direction.　　

The ECB publishes monthly report today.Traders watch French,German and Euro-Zone 2Q(Preliminary)GDP q/q&y/y,French 2Q(P)Nonfarm Payrolls and Wages,Swiss July Producer&Import Prices m/m&y/y,Euro-Zone July(Final)CPI m/m&y/y,Canadian June New Housing Price Index m/m&y/y,US Aug 9th Initial Jobless Claims&Aug 2nd Continuing Claims and US July Import Price Index m/m&y/y.