美元、美联储会议纪要激发了市场的反弹。而在今天，由于中国释放的疲软制造业数据，触发了外汇市场高收益新兴市场货币的抛售，导致这种反弹继续进行。汇丰银行/Markit制造业PMI下跌至3个月的低位50.3，远低于市场预期水平51.5（前值为51.7）。本次疲软表现基础广泛，各分项指标也均有所走软，其中7月新订单也从53.7大幅下跌至51.3（尽管仍旧高于50的扩张门槛）。由于新订单被视作国内外需求的晴雨表，该局面着实令人担忧。鉴于中国经济复苏似乎尚未企稳，投资者迅速远离有风险的新兴国家外汇市场。这表明股市得到了平衡，原因是日元走软推动日经指数上涨0.85%，而恒生指数和上证综指分别下跌0.75%和0.67%（截止撰写本文时）。进入欧洲市场后，标普期货小幅走高。美联储会议纪要显示，与会人员对开始紧缩周期“宜早不宜迟”的议题进行了激烈辩论，此后欧元兑美元多数时段保持卖出。欧元兑美元在亚洲市场多数时段围绕1.3250的手柄震荡交易，交易者准备迎接欧元区PMI预览值的释放。市场当前严重看空欧元，因此如果该数据意外上扬将应该能触发大量空头回补。美元兑日元在强硬美联储会议纪要释放之后仍旧处在103.80，未能集聚买家挑战104.00的水平。然而，鉴于日元作为融资货币的选择以及预期美国国债收益率还会继续走高，对短期阻力位进行测试看来只是时间的问题。至于日本其他方面的消息，数据表明投资者上周持续买入外国资产，其中外国债券为6600亿日元、外国股票为2630亿日元。正如市场预期澳元兑美元下跌至0.9238，原因是中国PMI数据有所走软，尽管谘商会领先指数继5月环比增长0.2%之后，6月也增长了0.4%。大宗商品价格依旧疲弱，其中原油价格小幅下滑至102美元/桶，主要是供给充足以及需求下降（中国数据担忧对此起到了放大）所致。　　

欧元区PMI　　

在欧洲市场，交易者期待欧元区PMI以及欧元区消费者信心等数据的释放。就大环境而言，预期这两个数据均将有所走软，预示欧洲经济环境出现进一步恶化。这应该会助推市场对于欧洲央行实施刺激的揣测以及增加市场对于欧洲央行行长德拉吉明天在杰克逊霍尔评论的期待。在英国，7月排除汽车后的零售销售可能会扭转颓势，预计环比和同比分别增长0.4%和3.5%。鉴于先前释放的货币政策委员会会议纪要显示了不同意见，尽管经济数据继续走软，我们还是认为紧缩论据可能会有所加强，同时应该能继续对英镑构成支撑。在挪威，投资者预期其第二季度GDP季比增长为0.6%。　　

China’s flash manufacturing PMI falls　　

The dollars,Fed minutes inspired rally,has continued today as the release of a soft Chinese manufacturing triggered selling of high-yielding EM FX.HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI dropped to a 3-month low of 50.3,meaningfully lower than the 51.5 expected result(prior read of 51.7).Softness was broad-based across sub-indices yet new orders was significantly weak falling to 51.3 from 53.7(although still above 50 expansion threshold)in July.This is concerning as new orders serves as a barometers for domestic and foreign demand.With the Chinese economic recovery seemingly unstable,investors were quick to rotate away from risky EM FX.That’s said,equity markets were balanced as the weaker JPY helped Nikkei rise 0.85%,while the Hang Seng and Shanghai dropped-0.75%and-0.67%respectively(at the time of writing).S&P futures are slightly higher going into the European session.EURUSD spent most of the session on offer following the release of the Fed minutes which suggested intense debate on starting the tightening cycle“sooner rather than later.”For most of Asia,EURUSD was basing around the 1.3250 handle as traders prepare for release of EZ Flash PMI data.The market is currently heavily short EUR,so an upside surprise should trigger decent short covering.USDJPY was already at 103.80,after the hawkish fed minutes,and was unable to gather the buyers to challenge 104.00.However,with the JPY the funding currency of choice and expectations of US yields moving higher it’s just a matter of time before we test near-term resistance.In other Japanese news,data indicates that investors continued to buy foreign assets last week,adding¥660bn in foreign bonds and¥263bn in foreign equity.As expected,AUDUSD traded lower to 0.9238 on the weaker Chinese PMI data despite conference board leading index rising 0.4%m/m in June following a gain of 0.2%in May.Commodities remain soft as oil edged down to$102 as ample supply and slowing demand(amplified by Chinese worry data)damaged prices.　　

Euro-Area PMI　　

In the European session,traders will be watching euro-area PMI and euro-area consumer confidence.In broad terms,we expect softness in both data sets indicating further deterioration in Europe’s economic condition.This should fuel further speculation of ECB stimulus and raise expectations for ECB President Draghi’s comments from Jackson Hole tomorrow.In the UK,retail sales ex-auto may reverse declines by increasing by 0.4%m/m and 3.5%y/y in July.Given the MPC minutes indicating dissention in the ranks we suspect that the tightening argument will gain pace despite softer economic data and should keep GBP supported.In Norway,investors anticipate mainland Q2 GDP growth to increase by 0.6%q/q.