25/09/13 @ 07:21 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20130925/meiguo-zhaiwu-wenti

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　USD: Durable goods data will be the usual roller-coaster of data volatility, but it’s not usually sustained in terms of market volatility. New home sales are seen partially bouncing back (by 6.6%) from the July weakness, but again also a volatile number often brushed aside by the dollar.

　　美元：耐用品数据通常都是数据波动中起伏最大的，不过从市场波动角度来看往往也是不可持续的。新房销售从七月的疲软中回弹（幅度6.6%），不过这还是一个波动的数字并且经常被美元谅到一边。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　We wrote yesterday about the fading post-Fed party, looking more from the performance of ‘risk assets’ in general. But there is also the dollar angle, with the dollar index having risen every day since the Fed decision to retrace around 1/3 of the initial losses. There are a number of factors at play here, but once again there is the looming issue of the US debt ceiling. We’ve been here before, back in the summer of 2011 ( several times before then), when US politicians took negotiations right to the wire. The Senate is set to hold a vote today on legislation passed by the House of Representatives to cover spending to the middle of December. Last time, the dollar’s haven appeal won out over any investor concerns regarding US fiscal sustainability the same is likely to happen again this time around. The continued prospect of Fed tapering, even though we may not be there yet, will still provide a supportive backdrop.

　　昨天我们谈到了美联储决定发布后消失的抱团行为，“风险资产”的表现从整体上更是如此。不过从美元角度来看，自从美联储的决定发布后美元指数每天都在上升已经恢复了将近三分之一的损失。其中起作用的因素还是有一些，不过一个让人困扰的问题就是美国的债务限额。此前我们曾经遇到这样的问题，也就是在2011年的夏季（在这之前也有几次），而美国的政治家是在最后关头才开始谈判的。参议院今天将针对众议院通过的弥补直到12月中旬开支的法案进行投票。上一次，美元避险的魅力完全超越了投资者对美国财政可持续性的关注。这一次很可能会发生同样的事情。美联储紧缩计划的前景还是有空间的，虽然我们也许会等不到，仍然会给提供一定的支持。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　EUR: As well as the generally firmer dollar, there was more talk yesterday of liquidity operations from the ECB to counteract the contraction of its balance sheet. This is happening as banks re-pay longer-term loans back to the ECB. All else equal, this is euro positive, so prospect of more cheap loans is seen as pushing the euro lower.

　　JPY: The yen is the only currency on the majors that has managed to outperform the dollar over the past week, since the Fed’s non-tapering decision. EURJPY looking interesting should this continue, with trendline support currently coming in at 131.23.

　　AUD: Another currency feeling a little heavy post-Fed, with AUDUSD having retraced the entire move seen a week ago.

　　欧元：和总体稳定的美元一样，昨天大家更多的谈到了欧洲央行的流动性运作，这些运作是为了应对其资产负债表的收缩。之所以会发生这样的事情是因为众多银行在偿付欠欧洲央行的长期借贷款。其他条件相等的情况下，这对于欧元是有利的，因此代价越低的借贷将让欧元走得更低。

　　日元：自从美联储发布了不紧缩的决定之后，日元是主要货币中唯一在过去一周中努力要超过美元的货币。如果这样的情况继续下去，欧元日元会让人感兴趣，而趋势线支持目前在131.23处。

　　澳元：美联储决定发布后澳元感觉有一点沉重，澳元美元几乎丢失了一周之前的所得。

　　FX Alerts

　　NZD TRADE BALANCE

　　新西兰贸易平衡

　　24/09/13 @ 22:50 GMT by FxPro Dealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130925/xinxilan-maoyi-pingheng

　　New Zeal's trade deficit for August at NZ$ 1.191 Million.

　　新西兰八月的贸易赤字为119.1万新元。

　　FX Alerts

　　DOLLAR SLIPPING...

　　美元下滑……

　　25/09/13 @ 11:35 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130925/meiyuan-xiahua

　　The dollar is running out of steam after what has been a fairly steady recovery since the Fed decision not to taper last week sent it tumbling lower. Losses have been more pronounced against sterling the euro, whilst the dollar is still ahead against the Scis, Kiwi Aussie so far during the European session. There is an underlying inter-play between the negative force of continued QE the more risk averse outlook caused by the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations in the US.

　　自从美联储上周决定不开始紧缩计划，美元有点虎头蛇尾没有能够继续稳定的恢复下去。损失更多的是针对英镑和欧元，而目前在欧洲盘口美元针对北欧货币，新元和澳元还是领先的。而还在持续的量化宽松计划导致的负面力量和美国债务限额谈判导致的风险逆转前景之间有着一场暗战。