美国国债收益率下降，美元在外汇市场上全线微跌。在整个市场中，美元兑日元跌破100.00整点大关到99.20。欧元兑美元在1.3300至1.3325之间窄幅波动。伴随着澳新两国经济数据的释放，两国货币成为市场上的主要变动者。新西兰央行出乎市场预期，报告表态略显强硬，引发纽元兑美元大幅攀升至0.8138，之后在余下时间中戏水（澳元兑纽元继续下行至1.139）。澳大利亚就业数据让市场意外，澳元投资者迅速减持近期多头头寸。澳元兑美元从0.9355大幅下跌至0.9260，且依然处于卖出状态。区域股指整体走高，恒生指数攀升0.30％，上证综指上涨0.29％（尽管中国将停止产能过剩行业中所有未经批准之项目的建设的消息并不乐观），但日经指数下跌了0.26％，日元上涨）。　　

隔夜，新西兰央行维持现金利率在2.5％的纪录低位不变。正如其在夏季所言，新西兰央行最初重申其在2013年维持利率不变的指导。然而，语句变得明显更为强硬，新西兰央行表示“明年有必要上调隔夜现金利率”。新西兰央行通过将首次加息时间从2014年9月调前至6月来调整其前瞻性指导。有趣的是，MPS和新闻发布会都缺乏口头上管理纽元的努力。在央行讲话中唯一值得一提的是，议会委员会表示，纽元被“高估了”。　　

澳大利亚就业数据意外走软，8月就业人数减少1.08万人，远差于预期的增加1万人。相关细节也差于预期，8月全职就业人数减少2600人，7月曾减少7300人。据报告显示，9月消费者通胀已从8月的2.3％下降至1.5％。这让澳洲联储实施宽松政策的空间略有加大。鉴于澳洲联储和新西兰央行在预期货币路径上的分歧越来越大，我们预计澳元兑纽元会继续下降。　　

亚洲其他新闻方面，正如市场广泛预期，韩国央行连续第四个月维持政策利率在2.5％不变。日本7月机械订单月率0.0%，低于预期的上升2.4％（年率增长6.5％，前值增长4.9％，预期增长7.7%）。　　

今天，投资者将关注欧元区工业生产、意大利工业产出、美国首次申请失业救济人数、加拿大新建住房价格以及美国财政预算等数据。英国央行行长马克•卡尼及其团队将就8月通胀报告向财政部专责委员作证。市场会仔细研究他们的发言，以了解英国央行会对昨日失业率下降至7.7％、国债收益率近期有所上扬、前瞻性指导开始以及由此引发的调整政策路径的可能性会作何反应。

In FX markets, USD was marginally weaker, as US treasury yields adjusted lower. USDJPY fell throughout the session from 100.00 handle down to 99.20. EURUSD traded in a tight range between 1.3300 to 1.3325. With economic data from Australia and New Zealand, the two currencies were the session primary movers. The RBNZ surprised the market with a slight hawkish reports which caused a sharp spike to 0.8138 then treaded water for the rest of the session (AUDNZD continued its downwards trend falling to 1.139). AUD traders were quick to cut recent longs as employment came in surprised weak. AUDUSD sharply dropped to 0.9260 from 0.9355 and remains on offer. Regional equity indices were on the whole higher as the Hang Seng climbed 0.30%, Shanghai rose 0.29% (despite negative news that China would halt Construction of all unapproved projects in industries fronting overcapacity) yet the Nikkei fell -0.26% and the JPY rose).

Overnight, the RBNZ again left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.50%. The RBNZ initially reiterated its guidance to hold interest rates unchanged in 2013, as they had stated in the summer. However, the statement became significantly more hawkish with comment that “OCR increases will be required next year”. The RBNZ adjusted its forward guidance by seeminlgy to shift the timing of the first hike to June 2014 from September 2014. Interestingly, lacking from the MPS or the press conference was efforts verbally manage the NZD. The only real mention was in the Governors speech to the Parliamentary Committee stated that the was currency “overvalued.

Out of Australia, employment was surprised weak, dropping 10.8K in August vs 10K expected. The underlying details were also softer then anticipated as full-time employment fell and additional -2.6K after a decline of -7.3K July. While consumer inflation was reported to have dropped to 1.5% in Sept vs. a read of 2.3% in August. This will give the RBA a little more scope to ease. Given the growing divergence between the expected monetary path of the RBA vs. RBNZ we suspect the AUDNZSD will continued to fall.

In other news out of Asia, the Bank of Korea’s as was widely anticipated held the policy rate unchanged at 2.5% for the fourth consecutive month. From Japan’s monthly machine orders m/m were 0.0% July, lower than an expected rise of 2.4% (yearly figures rose 6.5% from 4.9% vs. 7.7% exp).

Today traders will be focused on EZ Industrial production, Italian Industrial output , US Initial claims, Canadian New housing Prices and the US treasury budget. From the UK Mark Carney and BoE gang will give evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the August Inflation Report. Their comments will be examined to gauge how the BoE will react to yesterday’s fall in unemployment to 7.7%, recent jump in yields and start of forward guidance, for any consequently in the suggested policy path.