因联邦公开市场委员会定于今日释放利率决定，外汇交易隔夜的表现主要是窄幅震荡。伴随着美国经济数据的释放，预计市场活动今天下午会加速变动。在经历安静的上半周之后，美国7月ADP就业人数变化、第二季度GDP（预览值）、核心PCE和个人消费支出预估值很可能会刺激市场价格行动。

　　在日本，数据显示7月制造业PMI创为近4个月以来的最慢增速，而6月新屋开工和劳动现金收入有所改善。日经225指数下跌1.45％，而其他亚洲股票指数涨跌互现。恒生指数下跌0.19％，上证综指上涨0.08％，而加权指数和综合指数分别下跌0.68％和0.16％。

　　美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在东京市场仍然是窄幅震荡。美元兑日元的上行空间已连续第三个交易日受制于100日移动均线（98.50）。虽然该货币对交易于一目均衡表（Ichimoku云图），买入价见于云底（97.55），但止损盘见于97.50下方，且在97.00下方越来越强劲。

　　在澳大利亚，6月私人部门信贷上涨3.1％（5月上涨3.0％），而澳元在0.9000（下一关键支撑位）上方整合亏损。由于市场正在消化较高的澳洲联储降息几率（有些银行甚至呼吁同时降息），所以交易偏见明显是下行。超温和的美联储表态对澳元也有支持作用，其他卖盘和期货市场表明一旦突破支撑位0.9000，该货币对将会进一步下跌至0.8850。

　　今早释放的德国零售销售意外下降，拖累欧元兑美元下跌至1.3241。由于欧洲央行将于明日公布政策决定，所以今天的美国经济数据和联邦公开市场委员会议可能会引发欧元波动。欧洲央行行长德拉吉将释放会议纪要。1.3300之前的卖盘看起来依然比较紧张，而日常买盘兴趣见于1.3200以上。

　　美国企业税的相关谈判正准备迫使企业利润遣返，导致美元兑瑞郎上扬至周内最高价0.9324，之后在亚洲市场回落至0.9290并维持窄幅震荡。KOF指标好于预期立马提振了瑞郎多头，但鉴于下午将释放重要的数据流，瑞郎多头反应仍然有限。

　　今天，经济议程充满各种重大数据。市场正在密切关注7月UBS消费指标和KOF指标、德国7月失业率、意大利6月和挪威5月失业率、欧元区7月CPI预估值、核心CPI年率和6月失业率（初步值）、意大利7月CPI（初步值）月率和年率、美国7月26日MBA抵押贷款申请、7月ADP就业人数变化、第二季度（预览值）GDP年化季率、GDP物价指数、核心PCE季率、个人消费支出和就业成本指数、美国7月ISM密尔沃基和芝加哥PMI以及最后的联邦公开市场委员会利率决定。

　　The overnight currency trading was mostly range-bound ahead of the FOMC rate decision due today. Market activity is expected to gain pace this afternoon with US data; ADP employment change in July, the 2Q (Advance) GDP, core PCE and personal consumption estimates are likely to boost price action in the markets after the quite beginning of the week.

　　In Japan, data showed that the manufacturing PMI advanced at the slowest pace since four months in July, while the housing starts and labor cash earnings improved in June. The Nikkei 225 traded on the downside (-1.45%), while the performances of other Asian equity indexes were mixed. Hang Seng lost 0.19%, Shanghai’s Composite advanced 0.08%, while Taiex and Kospi index retreated 0.68% and 0.16% respectively.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses remained ranged in Tokyo. USDJPY topside was limited by the 100-dayMA (98.50) for the third consecutive session. While the pair trades in the Ichomoku cloud with bids seen above the cloud bottom (97.55), stops are mixed below 97.50 and building stronger below 97.00.

　　In Australia, the private sector credit advanced 3.1% in June (vs. +3.0% a month ago), while the Aussie consolidated losses above 0.9000, the next key support. The bias is clearly on the downside as the markets price in higher probabilities for RBA rate cut (with some banks even calling for more than a single cut). A super-dovish Fed may support the Aussie, else offers and option markets suggest decline towards 0.8850, if 0.9000 support is broken.

　　Released in the morning, the unexpected drop in German retail sales sent EURUSD to 1.3241. The US data and the FOMC meeting are likely to trigger volatility in euro today, ahead of the ECB policy verdict due tomorrow. The ECB President Draghi wants the meeting minutes to be released. Offers remain tight pre-1.3300, while daily bidding interest is seen above 1.3200.

　　Squeezed on talks about a grand tax bargain preparing to force repatriation of corporate profits, USDCHF advanced to intra-week highs (0.9324) and eased back to 0.9290 to remain range-bound in Asia. The better-than-expected KOF indicator shortly boosted the CHF-bulls yet the reaction remain limited ahead of the important data stream scheduled in the afternoon.

　　Today, the economic agenda is full of significant data. Markets are closely watching July UBS Consumption Indicator and KOF Indicator, German July Unemployment Rate, Italian June and Norway May Unemployment rates, Euro-zone July CPI estimate and CPI Core y/y and June Unemployment, Italian July (Prelim) CPI m/m & y/y, US July 26+th MBA Mortgage Application, July ADP Employment Change, and 2Q (Advance) GDP Annulaized q/q, GDP Price Index, Core PCE q/q, Personal Consumption and Employment Cost Index, US July ISM Milwaukee and Chicago Purchasing Manager, and finally the FOMC rate decision.