日经股票在东京市场进一步走高。出口商受益于日元走软的利好消息盖过了日本6月工业和汽车产量下降幅度大于预期的消息，而失业率从4.0％回落至3.9％，整体家庭支出有所收缩。日元隔夜触底，日本10年期政府债券收益率高于0.79％。

　　美元兑日元和日元交叉盘在亚洲市场有所走高。在清理完98.20水平上稀少的卖盘之后，美元兑日元因日本上月底薪酬结算日需求和进口需求而上涨至98.46。全面走软的美元以及不断攀升的日经股市也有助于该货币对的上扬。

　　在澳大利亚，澳大利亚央行行长史蒂文斯表示，近期的通胀数据表明澳央行还有在必要时进一步放松货币政策以支持需求的空间，并补充表示，从宏观经济角度来看，近期汇率下跌似乎合乎情理，澳元若随着时间的流逝而进一步下滑，也不会太令人意外。史蒂文斯的意见导致澳元潜水，澳元兑美元跌至0.9066，创7月15日以来的最低水平，而澳元兑日元下跌至89.23。情绪由正转负，澳洲联储降息的概率从昨日的77％调高到85％，澳元交易带看跌偏见，这说明澳元兑美元下一步或将重新测试关键支撑位0.9000。

　　欧元兑美元已连续第三个交易日未能突破上方强劲的阻力位1.3300，致使牛市势头多少有些减弱。在东京市场，该货币对维持1.3246-66窄幅震荡。由于事件风险将于下半周重新加载，预计欧元兑美元将维持区间震荡，买盘分别见于以下水平之上：1.3200、1.3100以及1.3088（200 日移动均线）。

　　在英国，英镑的实力依然受制于斐波纳契阻力位1.5413，该水平已推动英镑兑美元下降至1.5316。首批买盘见于1.5303（50日移动均线兼心理支撑位），而上行空间在明天的联邦公开市场委员会会议以及随后英国央行周四的政策决定宣布之前将一直有限。

　　由于今日缺乏重大事件，外汇市场很可能会维持区间震荡，主因是投资者鉴于事件流将于明日启动纷纷调整头寸。下一站是联邦公开市场委员会会议，我们预计其在削减一事上不会发表任何重大意见，在自2008年以来为支持经济复苏一直将目标设定在零至0.25％之间的利率问题上同样也不会发表任何重大意见。正如美联储主席伯南克在他最近一次的讲话中所言，资产购买是“无法预设路线”，将取决于经济状况的进展。

　　在其他地方，中国人民银行今天通过反向回购协议注资170亿元，这是其近五周来首次进行公开市场操作。7天回购利率稳定在5.1％，掉期利率下调3个基点至6%。

　　今天，市场的重点是德国GfK消费者信心指数、西班牙和瑞典第二季度（初值）GDP月率和年率、西班牙7月通胀年率、欧元区7月经济信心指数、商业景气指数、工业、消费者和服务信心指数、德国7月（初值）CPI月率和年率、加拿大6月工业生产及原材料价格指数月率、美国S＆P/CaseShiller房屋价格指数以及美国7月消费者信心指数等。

　　The Nikkei stocks were better bid in Tokyo. The exporter gains on weak JPY outweighed the greater than expected drop in industrial and vehicle production in June, the jobless rate retreated from 4.0% to 3.9%, alongside with the contraction in overall household spending. JPY dipped overnight, Japan 10-year government bond yields traded above 0.79%.

　　USDJPY and JPY crosses traded higher in Asia. After clearing light offers at 98.20, USDJPY advanced to 98.46 on month-end Gotobi and importer demand. The broad based USD-weakness and the the climb in Nikkei stocks helped.

　　In Australia, the Aussie took a dive amid RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the recent inflation data may afford some scope to ease policy further if needed to support demand adding that the recent weakness in the Aussie is justified by the macroeconomic factors and he would not be surprised if a further decline occurred over time. AUDUSD dipped to 0.9066 on Stevens' comments, the lowest since July 15th; AUDJPY dropped to 89.23. The sentiment turned negative, the probability of an RBA cut is revised up to 85% from 77% yesterday, with bearish bias suggesting that AUDUSD should re-test 0.9000 key support in the next step.

　　EURUSD failed to break above the strong resistance at 1.3300 for the third consecutive trading day, somewhat weakening the bull-momentum. The pair traded in the tight range of 1.3246/66 in Tokyo. Ahead of the event-risk back-loaded to the second half of the week, EURUSD is expected to range-trade with bids eyed above 1.3200, 1.3100 then 1.3088 (200-dayMA).

　　In UK, the cable strength remained capped at 1.5413 fibonacci resistance, sending the pair down to 1.5316. First bids are seen at 1.5303 (50-dayMA & psychological support) while the topside should remain limited ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, followed by BoE policy verdict on Thursday.

　　In the lack of major event today, the fx markets are likely to range-trade on position adjustment ahead of the event stream to start tomorrow. The next stop is the FOMC meeting, where we do not expect any significant comment on tapering nor the interest rate target set between zero to 0.25% to support the economic recovery since 2008. As the Fed Chairman Bernanke insisted on his last speech, the asset purchases are by no means on a preset course and will depend on the progress seen in economic conditions.

　　Else, the PBOC injected 17bn yuan through reverse repos today, its first open market operation over the past five weeks. The seven day repo rate stabilized at 5.1%, with lower swap rates by three to six bps.

　　Today, the focus is on German GfK Consumer Confidence, Spain and Sweden 2Q(Prelim) GDP y/y & y/y, Spain July Inflation y/y, Euro-Zone July Economic Confidence, Business Climate Indicator, Industrial, Consumer and Services Confidence, German July(Prelim) CPI m/m & y/y, Canada June Industrial Production Price and Raw Materials Index m/m, US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index and US July Consumer Confidence Index.