隔夜，由于交易者都在等待万众期待和大肆宣传的9月非农就业人数报告，外汇市场相对疲软。在亚洲市场，美元略有上扬。欧元兑美元在亚洲市场的大部分时间里均在下滑，一度跌至1.3663（但高于纽约市场创下的最低价），不过随后大幅逆转至1.3673。澳元兑美元跌至0.9644后，又走高至0.9664。亚洲外汇市场大致维持区间震荡，美元兑日元停留在98.15-98.37的20个点的区间内。美元兑瑞郎基本稳定，略高于新的历史低点6.1395。亚洲区域股指涨跌互现，日经指数上涨0.3％，而上证综指和恒生指数分别下滑0.91％和0.46％。

　　据中国数据报道，中国四大主要城市的新房价格创2011年1月以来的最大涨幅。此外，在政府跟踪的70个城市中，有69个城市显示房价在变相增长（深圳和广州均上涨了20%）。在其他数据方面，中国经济咨商局领先经济指标9月环比上涨0.9％，高于8月的涨幅0.8％。

　　今天的重点很明显将是美国非农就业人数报告。市场预计新增非农就业人数总计达18万，而私人部分新增就业人数达17.5万。而失业率可能会创新的趋势低点7.2％。在美国政府关闭之前，该项数据能够反映美国的情况，但现在有理由下调预期了。首先，ISM非制造业数据在9月份大幅下跌。其次，失业救济申请人数下滑可能是因为电脑失误造成，而不是因任何基本面变化造成。所以，我们认为，一旦该数据有所下滑，市场的相应反应不会降低美联储削减预期，也不会迫使美元小幅走跌。而一旦该数据好于预期，则肯定会被折现，因为该数据能封装美国政府关闭之前的非农就业数据。鉴于我们认为该数据可能会走低或比较疲软，我们认为受新兴市场及利率推动的外汇交易者将会继续改善。

　　定于今日释放的其他经济数据包括：瑞士9月贸易平衡数据，预计又是一个强劲的数据。市场一致认为盈余21亿瑞郎（8月盈余18.6亿瑞郎）；以及加拿大8月零售销售数据，应该会从8月的环比增长值0.6%下滑至0.3%。鉴于美元同疲软经济增长前景之间有着密不可分的关系，加元将会继续挣扎。

　　Forex markets were relatively subdued overnight as traders await the much anticipated and hyped September payroll report. USD was slightly bid in thin Asian trading. EURUSD was sold-off for most of the Asian session to 1.3663 (above NY low) before sharply reversing to 1.3673. AUDUSD dipped to 0.9644 before shooting higher to 0.9664. Asian FX was broadly range bound with the USDJPY staying in 20 pip range between 98.15 and 98.37. USDCNY fixed marginally above the new all-time lows at 6.1395. Regional equities indices are mixed as the Nikkei was up 0.3%, while the Shanghai composite and Hang Seng were off -0.91% and -0.46% respectively.

　　Data out of China reported that new home prices in China's four key cities showed that prices have increased the most since Jan 20111. In addition, of the 70 cities in the government tracker, 69 showed substation price increase (20% increases in Shenzhen and Guangzhou). In other data China Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.9% m/m in September, vs. a prior 0.8% gain in August.

　　Clearly the highlight of the day will be US payroll reports. Markets are expecting total nonfarm payrolls 180K and 175K for private jobs 180K.While the unemployment rate could hit a new trend low at 7.2%. This number will report on the situation prior to the government shut down but there is reason to skew expectations to the lower side. First was the ISM non-manufacturing which fell sharply in September and second is the decline in jobless claims which is more likely to have been cause by a computer error than any real fundamental changes. We don’t see the response to the read as asymmetrical as a downside read as it will lower tapering expectations and force the USD marginally lower. While a better than expected number will be discounted since it will encapsulate payroll pre government shutdown. Given our view of a lower or subdued read, we anticipate EM and interest rate to fuel FX trades will continued to improve.

　　In other data schedules today Swiss trade balanced should post another strong number. Consensus is for a chf 2.1bn surplus following August’s chf 1.86bn bounce. And in Canada, August retail sales should ease to 0.3% m/m from last month’s read of 0.6%. The CAD should continue to struggle given its close relationship with the USD and weak growth prospects.