05/11/13 @ 08:41 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/daily-forex-brief/20131105/aoyuan-dui-aolianchu-tanxing

　　Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　USD:Non-manufacturing ISM data at 15:00 GMT. Headline index is seen falling from 54.4 to 54.0, but as usual, volatility risks on the data at least are greater given the government shutdown. The dollar should largely shrug off any volatility though.

　　美元：非制造业ISM 数据在格林尼治世间15:00 点发布。整体指数从54.4下降到了54.0，不过和往常一样，由于政府停摆，数据方面的波动风险还是更大了。不过美元应该能摆脱任何风险。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　No surprise with the RBA keeping rates steady at 2.50% overnight, but the currency is weaker by some 0.3% on the basis that the statement describes the currency as “uncomfortably high”. The move on the Aussie is pretty small given this sentiment, but reflects the belief that there is nothing solid behind this sentiment, in other words there is little the RBA can do near-term to counteract currency strength. This statement comes after comments from RBA governor Stevens last month also reflecting the overvaluation of the currency. For now at least, it appears that the Aussie is set to remain in the lower half of the year’s range, with any push above the mid-point (0.9724) likely to be all too brief as the market fears more pointed remarks from the central bank.

　　澳联储将利率稳定在2.50%毫不令人感到以外，不过由于其声明中将澳元的状态描述为“令人不舒服的高涨”，澳元因此疲软了0.3%。虽然出现这样的情况，澳元的变动还是很小。这反映出人们认为这个声明里面没有什么干货，换句话说就是近期内澳联储还无法对抗货币的强势。这个声明之前还有上个月澳联储总裁Stevens 的评论，也反映出对澳元的过高估值。至少在目前，澳元看起来还是维持在年度范围的下半段之内，要是突破中点（0.9724）也可能都很简短，因为市场担心央行会放出更尖锐的言论。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　USD:Trading modestly weaker during Monday, but the ranges were tight enough not to place too much significance on the move. On the majors, the EUR and CHF were the main gainers.

　　EUR:Final PMI data was in line, leaving talk around the ECB to be the main focus. Rate cut expectations seem low, partly because the focus is on the liquidity side and the scope for more liquidity provision into year end. Don’t rule out a cut in the deposit rate as well before the year is out.

　　GOLD:We wrote in the middle of last month how the prospects were looking a little better for gold after what has, for the most part, been a fairly disappointing year. This still remains the case, but the ability to break through the highs seen in late August remains lacking right now, with a push towards the $1,300 level being the near term risk.

　　美元：周一交易小幅疲软，不过交易范围很窄不至于给这次变动赋予更多意义。主要货币中，欧元和瑞士法郎是主要的上升者。

　　欧元：最终PMI 数据符合预期，而对欧洲央行的言论会是主要的关注点。降息预期看低，部分原因是大家都在关注流动性以及年末提供流动性的提升空间。而且，今年结束之前不排除降低存款利率的可能。

　　黄金：上个月中旬我们谈到了黄金，在经过令人失望的大半年之后，黄金似乎有了些起色。目前情况没有太多彼岸花，不过目前黄金要突破八月末的高点还是有点困难，而近期内1300美元这个水平会是一个风险。

　　FX Alerts

　　RBA RATE UNCHANGED AT THE 2.5%

　　澳联储利率2.5%没有变化

　　05/11/13 @ 03:47 GMT by FxProDealing Desk

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131105/aolianchu-mei-gaibian-lilv-25

　　No surprise to an unchanged rate setting at the RBA's Nov meeting. Statement again hones in on the high AUD resulting in a slide.

　　毫不意外澳联储在十一月的会议上没有改变利率。声明再次警告澳元处于高位，导致澳元下跌。

　　FX Alerts

　　CHF WEAKER ON CPI

　　CPI 导致瑞士法郎疲软

　　05/11/13 @ 08:21 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131105/cpi-daozhi-chf-piruan

　　CHF weaker after CPI comes in weaker than expected at -0.3% YoY. USDCHF up to 0.9132, with EURCHF at 1.2315. Switzerland has not seen positive inflation rate for two years now.

　　CPI 比预期要疲软，同比下降0.3%，瑞士法郎因此疲软。美元瑞士法郎上升到0.9132，而欧元瑞士法郎位于1.2315。瑞士有两年没出现过积极的通胀率了。

　　FX Alerts

　　GBP BACK ABOVE 1.60

　　英镑回到1.60之上

　　05/11/13 @ 09:33 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131105/yingbang-huidao-160-zhishang

　　GBP back above 1.60, up 35 pips to 1.6015 after UK services PMI stronger than expected at 62.5 (from 60.3). EURGBP 0.8415.

　　英镑回到1.60。英国服务业PMI 比预期要强，（从60.3）到了62.5，英镑因此上升了35个pip，到了1.6015。欧元英镑为0.8415。

　　FX Alerts

　　USD FIRMER AFTER NON-MANUF ISM

　　非制造业ISM 数据发布后美元坚挺

　　05/11/13 @ 15:06 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20131105/feizhizaoye-ism-fabuhou-meiyuan-jianting

　　EURUSD around 20 pips lower after stronger than expected non-manuf ISM data from US, rising 55.4 (from 54.4) vs. expectations of fall to 54.0. JPY 98.50.

　　美国的非制造业ISM 比预期要强劲，（从54.5）到了55.4，预期是却是下降到54.0。这导致欧元美元降低了大概20个pip。日元位于98.50。