美国昨日释放的糟糕非农就业数据一直是美元走软的主要催化剂。这项被多次推迟释放时间的数据显示，美国9月新增14.8万非农就业人数（预期新增18万）。9月数据甚至在美国政府10月关闭以前就已经严重令人失望的事实表明，美国经济复苏可能比我们之前想象的还要脆弱——封存和预算整合影响已经开始在现实经济中显现。10年期美国国债收益率下跌至2.4836％，创近3个月以来的最低水平。

　　受广泛风险规避交易的影响，日元交叉盘扩大跌幅。美元兑日元在东京市场触及97.27，清除了来自政府控制的养老基金实体和半政府实体的买入价97.50。偏见显然是下行，首批买入价见于96.75-97.00区域。

　　欧元兑美元略低于本年度以来的最高价1.3711，在美国非农就业数据释放后强劲反弹。有关美联储或将削减债券购买规模的预期正在不断减弱，提振欧元兑美元在亚洲市场上扬至1.3793。从技术层面来看，欧元兑美元在布林带上轨道线（1.3765）以上交易，强劲的RSI指标（72.5％）表明欧元或许是买进得太多太快。大型卖出价位于1.3800之前，但偏见明显是上行，美联储的削减预期将会进一步减弱。期权买入价见于1.3725-50。

　　与欧元兑美元类似，英镑兑美元上扬至本年以来的最高价（1.6257），之后未能延续强势。英国央行将公布10月会议纪要；市场已经消化了其温和语调，而月双顶应该会限制上行空间。在这些水平上，英国多头仍然胆怯。至于欧元兑英镑，上行途中已经突破了关键阻力位0.8480，进一步提振了10月的反弹。

　　在澳大利亚，澳元录得极不稳定的交易时段。美国释放非农就业数据后，澳元兑美元突破0.9700，之后又因较高的澳大利亚第三季度CPI数据而在悉尼市场走高至0.9758，随后又因沉重的获利回吐而暴跌至0.9632。澳大利亚CPI在第三季度季的季比增幅较大，达到1.2％，年比增幅从上季度的2.4％倒退至2.2％（预期1.8%）。关于澳大利亚进一步降息的投注有所下滑，买盘兴趣仍然高于0.9580-0.9600区域。

　　今天的重要事件是英国央行会议纪要及加拿大政策决定的释放。此外，交易者还将关注法国10月商业信心指数、英国9月BBA购房贷款、欧元区第二季度政府债务、美国10月18日抵押贷款申请指数、美国9月进口价格指数月率和年率、美国8月房屋价格指数月率以及欧元区10月消费者信心（预览值）。

　　Bad US nonfarm payrolls print yesterday has been the main catalyzer in USD weakness. Delayed data showed that US added 148’000 nonfarm jobs in September (vs. 180’000 exp.). The fact that the September numbers were already heavily disappointing even before the US government shutdown in October is warning that the US recovery may be even more fragile than thought before – the sequester budget consolidation impacts has started to be seen in real economy. The 10-year US treasury yield fell to 2.4836% - three month low.

　　JPY crosses extended weakness on broad based risk-off trading. USDJPY hit 97.27 in Tokyo, clearing bids at 97.50 from government controlled pension funds semi-govt entities. The bias is clearly on the downside with first set of bids seen at 96.75/97.00 area.

　　EURUSD left behind the year high of 1.3711 rallied hard post-NFPs. The fading expectations on Fed tapering the bond purchases lifted EURUSD to 1.3793 in Asia. Technically, EURUSD trades above the upper Bollinger b (1.3765) the strong RSI (72.5%) indicates that euro is perhaps purchased too much too fast. Large offers are seen pre-1.3800 yet the bias is clearly on the upside with Fed tapering expectations pushed further in time. Option bids are seen at 1.3725/50.

　　On a similar pattern, GBPUSD advanced to monthly high (1.6257) yet failed to extend strength. The BoE will release October meeting minutes; the dovish tone already priced-in, the monthly double top should cap the upside. At these levels, GBP-longs are still timid. In EURGBP cross, 0.8500 key resistance has been broken on the upside, giving a fresh boost to October rally.

　　In Australia, the Aussie registered a highly volatile session. AUDUSD broke 0.9700 post-NFPs, advanced to 0.9758 on high 3Q CPI numbers in Sydney, then smashed to 0.9632 on heavy profit taking. The Australian CPI q/q grew at the faster pace of 1.2% in the third quarter, the year-on-year CPI regressed from 2.4% to 2.2% (vs. 1.8% exp.). As bets on further RBA-rate cut decline, the buying interest remains above 0.9580/0.9600 zone.

　　Today, the key events are BoE meeting minutes Bank of Canada policy verdict. Traders will also watch French October Business Confidence, UK September BBA Loans for House Purchase, Euro-area 2Q Government Debt, Us October 18th Mortgage Applications, US September Import Price Index m/m & y/y, US August House Price Index m/m, Euro-Zone October (Advance) Consumer Confidence.